Member Info for Bravedog

CCC,
I don’t understand you. You are disappointed by the cy. I am not and don’t care as they all rob you anyway. The cies don’t care about PI, as it is a hassle for them. They have more respect for II with deep pockets, but business is business and their interest always comes first.

I am only interested in the price and the value of transactions made by IOC/NOC.

When the new CFO was hired, Straycat (where is he? Seems to have gone elsewhere if he was real.) pointed out that he had no option. As he has been awarded options, he has the same interest as we: see the stock sold at a higher price. What else do we want?

Morning CCC,

« today it is very much a different climate where all are trying to protect their own home interests. »

That is where I disagree as I believe WW lll has started as China has a goal of total world domination by 2050 (which means it will happen before). China covered up the spread of the virus as documents shows that entries into military bases were already forbidden on January 1st. Flight from Wuhan to China were stopped, but not the international flights from Wuhan, as if China didn’t want to fall alone. At the same time in January, Xi didn’t stop its Silk Road: he visited Thailand to make more deals with the King.

I expect that to continue advancing with the Silk Road and Kurdistan is a prime target that will enable them to reach Turkey. I don’t know when it will happen, but the timing of a TO is very good with the price of oil around 20$ and every country busy fighting the virus.

Note that the TO period opened with the Total-Tullow deal: we now have a price reference of 1.2$/bl for a 2 bil field of waxy oil deemed to last 30 years, without a pipe to reach the sea.

Shaikan has been producing and tested for years, a pipe has been operational in war times and all the CEO have agreed that SH would be producing 80 years later.

So if you have time, you’ll earn a lot of money with GKP. Of course, you won’t get the Permian that will go for free to the IOC/NOC, but you will be rich enough: The 1.2$/bl doesn’t apply to Shaikan, it will be more.

Barzani no fools: they must have a plan B in case ICG says no.
Anyway, if ICG says YES, they will not follow thru with payments to KRG and they will add other conditions (like having control on the Kurdish oil industry).

So I believe plan B will be put in place, which is independence.

Tullow Uganda sold!
After having invested in Uganda, I followed Heritage Oil and that’s how I found GKP.

What you need to know is that the 1,2$/bl paid by Total is for oil where the pipe isn’t built. This is different from GKP where a pipe is already there which implies that the price per bl will be multiples of 1,2$. In Turkey, you have one pipe in use that has been repaired and another one they started to repair around 2013 if my memory is correct. I don’t know where there are now. Of course, they will need agreement of ICG to export heavy oil thru that pipe, but it will come in due time...

What this asset purchase means is that the takeover period of oil cies has now started and IOC or NOC will be very happy to buy assets when oil prices are so low. This will last until May or June, depending upon economic activity and oil price.

All my best wishes for you Mikey.
You have been a pillar of the bb.
BD

Mikey,

Very sad news. Sh??.
We had different views about accumulation/distribution, but I learned 2 weeks ago that the accumulation are made on the dark pools, hidden from the eyes of PI. Apparently, they were created around 2007 at the request of II who needed to be able to trade quickly big blocks. The SEC (or another agency) agreed.
Thanks for all your input with level 2, closing and opening.

Don’t give up. I recommended strong sale beginning of January. Now I think it is a buy if not a strong buy. This stock must go up quickly, otherwise it could drop out of the MSCI Index. We’ll know by end of May.

Wish all the best in these difficult times for you.

BD

9%´ : They will first reach 10%, Then could do the same as DNO (EGM was on the 28/2!) call an EGM to cancel these 10%. IF a dividend of 50 mio$ is paid, you will see an increase in the yield. Then at the AGM, they will request the buyback of another 10%. Buying back at current price levels it is the most profitable investment.
´there would be a paper loss of up to $50m’: Not if we have some good news that push up the price.

Their biggest problem is the oil price. What happens if the oil price returns to the 30$/bl?
Another point: if the market cap keeps going down, there is a risk that they drop out of the MSCI Emerging Small Cap Index and other benchmarks, which is not good. Perhaps a good reason to take care of the price and push it up.

Hi Straycat,

‘The Company will make further announcements in due course following the completion of any further purchases pursuant to the Programme.’
Another announcement could perhaps be increase the buyback to 10%. At the AGM request the cancellation of the treasury shares and request authorization to buyback another 10%. Will they pay a dividend ?
´Gabriel Papineau-Legris was in Oslo (Pareto) this morning’ -> WHO and WHY NOW?
Bondholders ?
Have perhaps plans to raise money for gas investments?
Perhaps NOW, because their buyback should stop when they publish year-end results and explain their gas investments.

Tom hinted about an understanding on payment conditions. You don’t see anything on the other Kurdish oil stocks, except DNO today.

Theoryman,

All the professionnals I have spoken to confirmed that they are not allowed to include the treasury shares for the dividend.
So it was a mistake.

Mikey,
Thank you very much for your explanations.
Perfect answers.
BD

Straycat,

« Notwithstanding that, where’s the RNS explaining why they have adjusted company policy in this unorthodox manner? »

Better not recognize an error and put the blame on SZ.

Mikey,

A while ago, Malcy showed pictures of Shaikan and somebody mentioned he said that PF3 « was awesome ». If PF3 exists, is it located on SH or SA? If it is on SH, GKP must pay for it and announce it. If it is on SA, Rosneft pays for it but doesn’t need to issue an RNS.

If Rosneft plans to extract oil from SA, a PFx unit is needed as well as a pipeline going westwards.

Straycat and Theoryman,

« What to do about this stonewall approach to shareholder concerns? »
What I have learned is that a bod or a CEO only listen to investors having a sizable stake in their cy. Starting claims against GKP can only be done by II and Capital Group just left. As none of the institutional shareholders is a real activist, there will be no pressure on the cy, which is registered in Bermuda.
We will have to wait the AGM to see which accounting trick they will find to settle the dividend problem. I left a comment about that in one of my posts. I agree with Theoryman that they weren’t allowed to pay a dividend to treasury shares and that it was probably a mistake. They’ll blame SZ!

The important questions are:
-when will regular payments resume?
-when will we know is gas can be used to stabilize the pressure in the Jurassic ?
-where is PF3 located?
-how much has been built on the heavy oil pipe to Ceyhan?
-what is the purpose of keeping treasury shares that aren’t cancelled?

Hi Straycat,

I have the same feeling as I don’t trust the management. Not the only one as Capital Group is leaving.
Either the Chinese and the Kurds agree to screw the minority shareholders again.
Or Trump manages to bring back the Americans in the Kurdish oil industry. For that to occur, you only need an American soldier killed by the Iranians or its proxys: IRCG will be decimated and the political landscape in Irak will change.

All this doesn’t explain:
-why the treasury shares aren’t redeemed?
-who has been buying the shares sold by Capital Group ?
-could these shares be sold to a new partner who could also take a stake in GKP ? That would give GKP money for the development of the field, but add another member on the board.
-the problem of the dividend paid to treasury shares isn’t solved.

BB,

And why couldn’t we see CNPC announcing they have bought 5% when the new CFO comes on the board?

In a few hours, we should know.

That could be the game changer News that will bring in bidders for GKP.
Answer Monday. Look at price and volumes. Buy if gap with volumes.

Straycat,

He comes from China, even if he is not a Chinese.
He has no options.
Will he receive orders from the bod, whose primary job hasn’t been to create value for shareholders, or will they come from China?

I think that triggered the sales by Capital Group. Between 1/11 and 18/11, volumes were VERY low. Upon the announcement, the stock went down and went below 2£ on 3/12. I believe Capital Group told the cy they would sell everything quickly, unless the cy started a buyback. And when the buyback started, we had heavy volumes which wasn’t the case for the first buyback.

I might be wrong, but CG was an insider and had all the knowledge when they guaranteed the capital increase in 2016. This decision can only be taken if the cy opens its book. CG is not an II activist, but they have enough power to make claims.

« The 5.47% was what the 5,027,150 that the American Funds SMALLCAP World Fund sold ».

No Mikey,

This was sold in February and if 5.47% = 5,027,150 shares, GKP has only around 100 mio shares...

Morningstar shows that on September 30 and October 31, Capital Group had around 14.7 mio shares = 6.4 % (based on outstanding issue).
On November 12, Paul tweeted the 10 biggest shareholders at the end of October which showed that Capital Group held 6.41% (based on outstanding issue).
The information given by GKP’s website on 10 December 2019 (and today) was the the Company has 220,603,364 shares in issue. 5.47% = 12,067,004.

So between end of October and December 10, Capital Group had already sold 2,63 mio shares!

As of today RNS, they own 10.815 mio shares. They have then sold 1.251 mio shares between December 10 and January 2nd.

So there has never been a private sale of 7.8 mio shares by Capital Group.

You must take into account that on the RNS the starting percentage is the one given by Capital Group the last time they made a modification of major holding.

I think Capital Group started their sales after the name of the new CFO was disclosed.

On November 12, Paul tweeted the position of the major shareholders
https://mobile.twitter.com/Paul47293202/status/1194154280946667521
Capital Group showed a holding of 6.41% (14.7 mio shares).
Since December 10, GKP’s website has a holding of 5.47% for Capital Group. https://www.gulfkeystone.com/investor-centre/shareholder-analysis (this should soon change).

IMHO it was sold on the market and taken up by GKP.

But why have almost all the buybacks been made at a price above the VWAP?
Normally the execution of orders are controlled and easiest way is to request the broker to try to get the VWAP for every day. This explains why more shares are now traded at the close.

Is the purpose of the buyback that started in December to allow Capital Group to get out ? By making this favor, GKP is sure that a big shareholder will not mess up the next AGM with questions about the dividend paid to treasury shares or ask if the choice of the CFO creates a conflict of interest.

« Bigger question is why they're buying them back now at all. »
Good question.
Perhaps because the new CFO will stop the buyback and dividend.

Happy New Year to all of you.
On the 13th, changes on the board.
Which changes will it bring to the cy ?

Try to figure out.