Member Info for Bravedog

Straycat,
Purchases at current price level makes a lot of sense on a fundamental basis: cash flow positive (when paid) and lot of cash owed by KRG.
Perhaps they (or rather KRG) have in mind a merger with another Kurdish E&P.

Then these purchases will be very accretive.

Awaiting the next options !
I haven’t discovered how many options Kimberley Wood has. Last year, she earned only 18000$...
She must get something.

When a cy announced the dividend, the accountant transfered the 50 mio $ from « retained earnings » to a the account « dividend to be paid ».
After the first dividend payment in July, only 33.333 mio $ remained in the temporary account « dividend to be paid ». The second dividend payment was announced on September 20 when the cy had 229 429 566 shares outstanding and 6 507 617 held in treasury.

Upon payment of the dividend to the lucky shareholders, the liability account « dividend to be paid » decreases as does the asset account « cash available ». After payment of 14.528787 US cents per common share to the 222 921 949 shares entitled to receive a dividend, the account « dividend to be paid » decreases by 32 387 855.1 $, as did the cash account.

As of today, the dividend not paid out to shareholders amounts to 945 477.85 $ and is in the account « dividend to be paid ». Current accounting practices require this dividend to be paid in 2019.

Deloitte and Jaap will need to give us some explanations at the next AGM.

And of course no options were exercised in October...

You can endlessly discuss about it, but don’t forget RNS of October 9:
The Company now has a total of 220,699,746 ordinary shares in issue with voting rights.
Can non voting stocks attract dividend ?

I indeed believe something changed end of March. First, A Mohtadi tweeted that the stock was going to fly after the results. Then somebody who had been very close to the mgt used exactly the same wording when I contacted him.
Then nothing happened.

Hi Straycat,

In support of your point:
RNS 20190501
https://ir1.q4europe.com/asp/ir/GulfKeystone/NewsRead.aspx?storyid=14299766&ishtml=1
-No dividend or dividend equivalents are payable in respect of the Nil Cost Option in accordance with the rules of the VCP.

That was in May!

But the most important question is thru which pipe will this oil reach Turkey ? My previous post hinted at it.

It is 250 kbd on average for 2020. With the time needed to fill the pipe, production at the end of 2020 will be much higher.
Possibly Shaikan heavy oil thru the new pipeline.
If I am correct, expect an upgrade in reserves, together with the 2nd amendment and a new PSC.

We’ll know within a week.

Bravedog

In case of takeover, it is the bod that decides if the offer must be accepted. Each member owns a fixed amount of shares, some few, others much more. They look at the price to know how much they will earn and if it favors all the shareholders.

For GKP, it is different, thanks to the VCP: « In the event of a change of control ./., there will be a Measurement Date on the change of control and the value of additional options will be calculated as at any other Measurement Date. The share price used to calculate the Measurement Total Shareholder Return will be the offer price for the Company. ». Yes: VCP is back!

As I understand it, when the bod of GKP convenes, they will have the ability to award themselves more options/shares! And the more share they award themselves, the less interested they will be to have GKP valued at a fair price. So the discussion will be more about how to increase their stake in the pie than to have a fair price.

All this favors the buyer of GKP.

Obviously, we have a conflict of interest between the bod and the other shareholders. Never seen anything like that.

In the RNS explaining the VCP I didn’t find any mention of the maximum amount to be allotted to bod members in case of change of control. Amendments to the plan are possible: «Awards cannot be amended to the advantage of participants without the prior approval of shareholders in general meeting, except for minor amendments... ».

If I am correct, I think shareholders should put maximum pressure on the bod before a change of control.

Remember what Jaap Huijskes wrote in AR 2018, p 47 on March 27, 2019:
« Gulf Keystone has a zero-tolerance approach to bribery and corruption and has put in place a number of policies and procedures for this».

When I was active, I once asked a person if some research has been done which could explain when to buy a technology or a stock that will have market success. It was in 2006 or 2007 and the only information I got was Dieter Diermeier, Northwestern University, Tipping point theory.

At that time I didn’t find anything at all on the web. Three weeks ago I found the tiny sheet of paper where that information was written: I got the link
https://m-cacm.acm.org/news/121846-researchers-find-tipping-point-to-sway-public-opinion/fulltext

« If just 10% of a social network is strongly committed to an opinion, that’s enough to rapidly convert the uncommitted 90% to adopt their point of view, say researchers who used computer models to discover the tipping point where a minority view becomes the majority opinion. »

Good management of a stock price requires the CFO enlist some lobbyists to do the job which can be positive or negative on the stock price.
Of course, the exercise price of options matters.

That’s a weird question after all my previous posts!

As the aim of the Kurds is independence, why would they sell their jewel now. Much better wait.

On the other part, ownership of Shaikan by China and Russia will allow them to trade oil in another currency than USD.

There are ways to create value for everyone. Why couldn’t we see the sale of less than half of Shaikan to an international consortium which avoids a takeover bid. KRG could be come the reference shareholder if they choose to keep their 20 or 27.5% holding for which we never received a final RNS. For those who don’t understand, GKP would remain operator with KRG becoming the largest shareholder of GKP.

I don’t feel that such changes would require a takeover bid as all the board would within a few months bring in professionals. I don’t think so, but you know better.

Many unanswered questions, but ideas that would give the Kurdish shareholders a steady stream of dividends whatever the currency, allowing more buybacks (!) and having KRG as shareholders , allow the production to increase dramatically allowing fairly soon KRG to handover 250 bd to ICG.

What else do you want? KRG and the Kurds will have an international oil cy and Aramco will be benchmarked against it.

Of course, if there is only 800 mio bl of reserves that will not happen. KRG would never have taken so many concealment decisions about this cy if it was for 1bil bl.

Settle the payment system first.

Thanks all of you for your support. Getting better and should be fit within a month.

@****eye

your nonsense predictions over the long years

Just tell how many years I made predictions.

Look at ii posts: the positive ones ended when TK sold his shares. CCC, among others, criticized me for posting that.
I came back after the October 2016 restructuring, missing the capital increase.

As far as the 28 days you mentioned, I was wrong but I have to admit that I didn’t read the Bermuda Law Act that has been mentioned by Paul.
And I have presently no time to research that as I will go to hospital. You’ll see if I come back.

@****eye

your nonsense predictions over the long years

Just tell how many years I made predictions.

Look at ii posts: the positive ones ended when TK sold his shares. CCC, among others, criticized me for posting that.
I came back after the October 2016 restructuring, missing the capital increase.

As far as the 28 days you mentioned, I was wrong but I have to admit that I didn’t read the Bermuda Law Act that has been mentioned by Paul.
And I have presently no time to research that as I will go to hospital. You’ll see if I come back.

@Straycat

5) Go some way to repairing/re-enforcing GKP’s reputation as a growing, vibrant, ambitious Independent Operator with a great future.

Who needs a sale?

You don’t seem to know how the oil industry works. Big fields to big oil cies. Period.
Todd Kozel was ready to push for increase in production with his request for 2 pipelines of 450kbd. Small players aren’t allowed to come in and spoil the game. So pressure was put on him to forget about it. I remember that around that time, Adnan Sanarai already said it was time to let the majors take care of that field.

As you have highlighted with the VCP, this management has no motivation to the production. The KRG decides everything.

IMHO, sale will come with a SoA because it avoids legal delays. Looking at the price of OPHIR before the announcement, you can see that the market will tell us in advance..

Ophir
12/28/18 0.33
1/2/19 0.46
1/28/19 0.50
1/29/19 0.51
1/30/19 0.54
1/31/19 0.55
6/6/19 0.57

If I can find the prices of BG before the TO, I’ll post them.

Why should they get dividends ?

From RNS October 10 :
The Company now has a total of 220,699,746 ordinary shares in issue with voting rights. This figure should be used by shareholders as the denominator when determining whether they are required to notify their interest in, or a change to their interest in the Company under the Financial Conduct Authority's Disclosure Guidance and Transparency Rules.

The voting rights are at 220 mio.

???

How can voting rights be at 220 mio and the dividend paid on 229 mio shares?

@Straycat

Had a look at Bermuda law act of 1981, re SoA.
Read this about fines: the company and every officer of the company who knowingly or wilfully authorizes or permits the default shall be liable to a fine of ten dollars for each copy in respect of which default is made.

I don’t know how it is for irregular dividend payment, but if the fine is so small, why would they care about doing things regularly ?

You also asked why take out cy with a SoA. It is because it avoids being blackmailed by an investor keeping 5%. Capital has 6.5% and with others investors hold more than 10%. Only quick way for a takeover is the SoA.

@Ss
I didn’t listen to him. That was what was written in a mail coming from gkpmeets Tony or Oilman.

Since Mifid 2, he must have a problem to contact investors. I haven’t looked in detail, but there are now strict rules if somebody contact investors and probably a level of qualifications needed. What I know for sure, is that any service offered to institutions must be tested 3-6 months before being admitted as a provider and receiving payments from them.

@Ss,

« Celicourt (CCC) refuse to discuss what he posts as “inside information”. Ask them yourself.»

Of course !
In a mail in 2013, he informed me that he was working as a consultant after having opened some doors in Kurdistan and regularly get called by city firms.
Nothing wrong about that.

One of my friends, very successful broker, told me once: if you receive an advice, don’t ask if it is good or bad, but check how much money you would have made following his advices.

I don’t know when he recommended selling the stock or buying it, but some old posters certainly know.

@antiquenick

I remember having seen on iii a link showing in realtime all the comments made by posters on GKP. It was used by traders.