Member Info for Bravedog

It’s perhaps time to realize that it is a fake Biden !
Only look at his ear!

https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-joe-biden-attends-the-ceremony-at-the-national-9-news-photo/1235181192

You must look at the global picture where Iraq is putting its house in order, opening up its economy and going to a convertible dinar. Stock exchanges in Baghdad and Erbil are ready.
SA listed Aramco and is opening its economy.

What prevents the Kurds from listing GKP in both Exchanges?

By requesting Garet Soden to step down from a committee, they show their intent to improve their corporate governance so it complies with the rules of the London Stock Exchange.

Now we can request them to take one step further by asking them to correct their website: all the RNS issued and all the archives prior to 2016 must be available for the shareholders.

The RNS of the discovery in August 2009 and all the following must be on their site: to find it, the shareholder must now look at the RNS published on LSE.co.uk ! What a shame! The previous presentation and technical presentations must also be there.
The RNS dated January 12 2012 mentioning the tender of a 450kbd pipeline with an option for a second one must be available on their website.

As questions can be asked at the AGM but have to be sent for approval to ir@gulfkeystone.com, I suggest that we all ask them to comply with the rules of LSE and publish all the information available on their website.

Thanks for ticking up if you agree.

Perhaps you should all read the RNS of December 8 2016 that changes the starting market level, the size of the pot and puts a cap on it.

Or read my previous posts and don’t forget it is in US$ and not in £.
Later this year there will be a common currency.

@ValueS
@TM

The link to the RNS was http://ir1.euroinvestor.com/asp/ir/GulfKeystone/NewsRead.aspx?storyid=12274483&ishtml=1 and I have sent it to an institutional investor in November 2018 with the comment: ”This discovery was so big that in January 2012, after only 4 tested wells, GKP issued a tender offer for a 450kbd pipeline with an option for a second one.”

@TM
You don’t want to phone RNS services and as I live in Europe I leave that for the Brits as it’s easier for them.
” Since I am trying to make money from this investment, what sort edge do you think finding out what happened will provide?”
I am just trying to make public the fact that planed output of Shaikan was 500kbd which should warrant a market cap higher than 500 mio$.

I have emailed the cy and myself, but I saw that it went in my spams.
If I write another email to the cy, I will not advise the bb.

That’s all for that subject.

@TM

Taken from RNS dated 12 March 2012 https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/gulf_keystone_petroleum/news/rns/story/x8g29pw

Shaikan Field Export Pipeline Project

On 6 March 2012, Gulf Keystone initiated a tendering process for the export pipeline site construction and installation for the Shaikan field export pipeline project.

As part of the ongoing tendering process for the materials procurement for the Shaikan field export pipeline project, which was announced on 12 January 2012, bids are currently being received with the technical and commercial evaluation to follow.
Gulf Keystone is the Operator of the Shaikan block with a working interest of 75 per cent and is partnered with Kalegran Ltd. (a 100 per cent subsidiary of MOL Hungarian Oil and Gas Plc.) and Texas Keystone Inc., which have working interests of 20 per cent and 5 per cent respectively.

Where is the RNS of January 12 2012? I posted it here before and it worked. I also forwarded it to some II.

I did find this discrepancy and I leave it to you on the bb to finish the job as this bb should be a collaborative work. If no one dares to scratch further, it means there are only trolls and bots on this bb.

@Nobull

Have a look at my previous posts (around mid February) where I explained that on March 12 2012 the issued an RNS informing that the tender offer was ongoing as announced in the RNS dated January 12 2012.

I even included the link to the previous RNS, but now it doesn’t work because they changed their website.

2 months ago, old links using euroinvestor where active, but not this one. How strange!

Yes, it is probably a breach of rules but I believe the new Investor Relations is aware of the rules of the LSE and that he will correct an error made by the IT department that was probably outsourced in another country.

@PUTUP

If the threshold was crossed as you say, why haven’t the cy issued an RNS informing the market that the threshold has been crossed?

@TM
I read it as follows:

” if a person is expected to obtain Control of the Company, the (remuneration) Committee may give notice to Participants ".

The average price for the 30 days was $2.429, which was below the threshold level.

@PUTUP
The threshold level was not crossed. That’s why 75% of the 7+mio nil cost options are not awarded. So the Bod decided that around 1,875 mio shares could be issued for the VCP.

There is a reason for that. Which one?

Paul or whoever it is thinks that ” if a person is expected to obtain Control of the Company, the (remuneration) Committee may GIVE NOTICE to Participants ". It makes sense.
@TM I pasted and copied, so I didn’t put it in uppercase...

What is the benefit? Before, what is the scenario ?

IMHO they are going to sell the cy to a consortium as too many countries are welcoming Barzanis which are President of an Iraqi province with 5 mio peoples. The best way to sell it is when HCL is approved which could be after the end of Ramadan. Sold, but sold without explanations: no payments, no explanations about PSC, no details about the duration of the contract because any explanation would unveil the true size of the field.

I believe that after the bond issuance with which they will buy the shares of the shaky LTH in order to reduce the number of outstanding shares. When HCL agreed upon (or perhaps even before), the consortium will buy until they have 50%. Then we have the amalgamation process under Bermuda law.

By vesting some shares to JF and SZ, they have 1-% more on their side, with the possibility of adding another 2%. Note that there are shareholders deemed strong which might flip flop: for who is Blackrock working ? I guess Larry Finck is proChina. Anyhow, some funds which can’t hold more than 10% of a stock will be the first big sellers.

My last advise will be: do not sell for more than 100,000 of your currency as long as the the financial reset hasn’t happened, or it will be seized to make capital increases for your banks.

@TM Did you note the perfect symmetry in the chart pattern ? I use the closing prices and we have an almost perfect inverted H&S time wise.

” one would only bother to exercise the options if (a) one wanted to sell the stock or (b) the options were due to expire (which they're not)”.
You forgot c) !
c) Change of control occurs. Then " if a person is expected to obtain Control of the Company, the (remuneration) Committee may GIVE NOTICE to Participants ".

RNS Number : 6506X
Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd.
05 May 2021

Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd. (LSE: GKP)

("Gulf Keystone", "GKP" or "the Company")

Block Listing Application

Gulf Keystone announces that an application has been made to the Financial Conduct Authority for a block listing of 1,875,000 common shares of $1.00 each (the "Common Shares") in the Company to be admitted to the Official List and to trading on the London Stock Exchange's market for listed securities ("Admission").

The new Common Shares will be issued from time to time, pursuant to the Company's existing general authority to issue shares on a non pre-emptive basis, to satisfy the issue of shares pursuant to the exercise of options under the Company's 2016 Value Creation Plan ("VCP").

It is expected that Admission will become effective on or around 7 May 2021. The shares will be issued fully paid and will rank pari passu in all respects with the existing issued Common Shares of the Company.

TM
I see awards given to members of the cy, purchases by some of them and the main shareholders slowly but regularly increasing their stake.
This is It more significant than accumulation made by II or HNWI.
No agressive buying has taken place and Morningstar doesn’t give any valuable information.

Just saw now that an application has been made for listing of 1.75 mio shares which is a little bit more than the VCP shares which could have been awarded had the average price target been reached.

TM

We have shareholders increasing their stake constantly: they are the bidders.

IMHO, the cy didn’t want to vest shares for SZ and JF. A more agressive shareholder could have driven up the price to the threshold level and get a sizable holding without paying too much. Nobody did. I conclude that the rule they have is to buy quietly on the market.

Previously listed as shareholders : Bloomberg showed they were shareholders, but they made a mistake.

And about the dividend and the share buybacks? I have no idea, but I don’t think the rules of the VCP have changed much (the nil cost options can be paid in cash or awarded earlier).
The threshold was 515 mio$
Without buyback, the target would have been 2.25$ and they would be shareholders.
With buyback, the target was 2.44$ and they didn’t get their shares.
If they had kept 100 mio $ in cash in addition to what they already have, would they have bought back shares in 2020?

TM,
You gave the answer: two way, so no change of value.
Reducing by 10% the number of shares increases their % in the cy and the dividend paid decreases the value of their asset. Of course, it would have been better form them to receive the cash, but they had options.

PUTUP,
I know the rules can be bent, but taking GUKYF price in $ is ridiculous as it is OTC with no volumes.
Activists and agressive oil cy could have taken a stake by rising the price above the threshold level as the cy don’t want SZ and JF to be seen as shareholders. After the TO, everybody will realize that these 2 guys will have earned a massive amount of money for not developing the field.

As they will be paid in cash, they will not appear as shareholders.

TM
It depends also on the exchange rate GKP used for the previous 19 days. I assume it is the price in London at the closing, but that is where they can cheat because in the RNS 20161111, as it is explicitly stated that they take the average of the closing price for the 30 days following the announcement of year end results which is in £.

If the activists raises the price too much, it get hammered. I believe, but might be wrong, that by raising the bids before the close, it will help. It will only succeed if a very big order is placed on market close with a limit.

I believe the stakeholders would drop as many shares as necessary and that is interesting for an investor ready to take a stake without raising the price too much.

Anyhow it shows one thing: there is no hostile actor among the bidders. It seems that Paul multi avatar is right: a deal and its rules has been agreed upon. Payment, new FDP, 2nd amendment extent of reserves has no importance: they all know.

It would be better if they published the RNS prior to August 2008 and the RNS of January 12 2012 mentioning the tender of a 450 kbd pipeline to Turkey with an option for a second one, as confirmed in the RNS 20120309.

I am keeping a chart of GKP in USD. I take the closing exchange rate in NY.

Yesterday, the price was 2.518 $ and the average price of the 19 days in April is 2.428 USD.

To have the shares vested, the market cap must be above 350 mio x 1.08^5= 515 mio $ which gives 2.44$.

The closing price must be above 2.67$. The activists have probably missed something, but we have to wait for the close.

After the budget agreement with ICG, the other cies have started investing. We don’t know exactly what they are doing, but next week they will be able to raise 200 mio $ for the development of the field.

As they need to buyback 7 mio shares for the nil cost options, they have no interest in coming with good news.

It is always interesting when activists put a company in a corner and they had perhaps a good opportunity to take a stake in GKP during this month of April.

According to the rules of the VCP, a part of the nil options awarded to JF and SZ would vest if the average price in April 2021 is above 2.45$. [I don’t take into account the dividend paid last year]. In that case, 50% of the awarded shares would vest, which is about 3.5 mio shares. [Unless it is 1/2 of 50%, which is 1.75 mio shares].

What happens if the price rise today to a price level that triggers the vesting of these shares as the company has no treasury shares? How will they vest them as they can’t buy any!

I call that a corner.

I listened to the podcast several times because JH give the name of the IR, but I didn’t understand it.

Whoever comes, he must be able to explain why the RNS of January 12, 2012 concerning the tender of a pipeline of 450 kbd, with an option for a second one, is now missing.

I listened to the webcast, which I can’t find on their website, and Harris said at the end, around mn 20, that they will hire a new Investor Relations.

On the bbs, nobody mentioned it and now new IR is mentioned on their site.
Where is the link?

@PUTUP
I had lengthy discussions with Straycat about the VCP when you weren’t on this bb as PUTUP.
You must know that the price used for the VCP is in $,while every days quotes are in £. When the VCP were awarded, I checked if the price was correct, making necessary currency conversions, and I came to the following conclusions :
Award in December 2016: price correct, VCP awarded in AR 20016 but cancelled without a comment in AR 2017!
Award in May 2017: none.
Award in May 2018: price correct.
Award in May 2019: somehow they used another method to award the nil cost options.
As all the nil cost options had been awarded, I didn’t follow what happened afterwards. I only know that they can take into account the dividend, but I don’t know how and didn’t study it as the nil cost options are all awarded.
So to come with the 2.5$ level, I made a copy and paste of what I had previously written and added a year or two. Of course, you can correct the result and phone the cy if you want the correct threshold.

@theoryman
I only know we had 229 mio shares, then 210. Surprisingly I found 190 outstanding in 2021. Why? Probably a mistake as I can’t explain it.