Member Info for Brassneck

Stt, i doubt the Yume acquisition was a surprise on Friday to Numis. Perhaps that is why they increased their target price in December from 610p to 720p, just as they increased in June post Rad1 deal when they increased from 520p to 610p. I doubt the brokers will move target prices higher until we get the year end trading update in April. If R1 post adj ebitda >$15m then things might start to move. Of course that's unless they factor in all the industry challenges....

Eddie, I assume there must be some IIs selling where their mandate is hold US securities only, equivalent to our U.K. Special situation funds etc. I imagine this will settle down next week. Interesting to see if Tosca start buying. Do major shareholders need to confirm their new % holding or is it only if they buy/sell from now?

Difficult to know what the profit level was outside of management confirming in line and therefore the $15-16m concensus adj EBITDA still on track i guess. Revenue in Q3 of $78m up 89% on Q3 17 of $41m helped by the Perk and Rad1 acquisitions. $192m YTD FY18 and I would think full year likely to be $260-270m. I wonder if we'll get Yume full year update later as normally it would have been early Feb but looks like they'll be no more very quickly.

With trading update in line...

Well they must be over the 50% required to put that RNS out. Any remote doubt and they didn't need to put any application to admit the shares for completion. Could be that they won't extend the offer at all.

stt, i know you love to be pedantic on here so just to clarify i didn't say you had said the Yume deal was doomed etc I said i didn't really want to hear your views IF it was to say it was doomed etc. Of course, whilst you didn't say it like that you managed to get the same general view in of: the IIs are making money, R1 fail on acquiistions, advisors are the winners, not sure R1 growing sufficiently. It's almost like i predicted your tone of contribution, which i think almost all posters on this board could have done.

Should be interesting to see how this plays out. I'm not familiar with usual process for this type of transaction (so very happy to hear other views - apart from yours Stt if it's going to be the tender is doomed and will fall apart). I see Meredith in the states are going through the same process acquiring Time inc. their offer was due to close on 10th Jan. They extended it on 11th Jan with 58% tendered - so assume they were over the line - to then close 25th Jan. They then further extended it to 30th Jan. Based on this I take it R1 may extend in a similar way. I just hope they will also provide visibility of the acceptance level in any comms. They have seemed hugely confident of doing the deal all along so it would be a major surprise if they weren't safely over the line. Wouldn't be surprised if Tosca had 10%+ of Yume by the time they were putting forward their shares.

You may have stopped looking but Comscore has been updated for Dec17. R1 in 5th and 6th place. Amobee has come in to the rankings at 3 ahead of conversant and R1 with Radiumone in 6th. Although of course reach doesn't matter any more it is up from 164m for R1 to 172m. Radiumone static at 165m. Amobee has gone from 97m to 183m. My previous numbers were all from June 17.

Curly, oooh don't forget the court case and P&G reducing spend! Sttt seemed to be a little short on the opportunity side in his note, only seemed to detail the negatives. Nothing about the material growth in this multi billion market or continued shift to digital/programmatic, emergence of connected tv, continued M&A activity as players consolidate, pressure on FB and Google to be transparent in line with industry quality players, likely regulatory pressures on the big 2 re dominance in ad market and positive encouragement of competition from alternative players. Anyone think of any others?

Thanks Rusty. So that's 8am UK time. Likely a Monday RNS then? Let's hope we get something to clear up the situation.

Eddie, lets see what the end of the week brings. I'm out and about at the moment but is the deadline midnight UK time on Thursday, New York time or San Francisco time? If it's UK then a Friday RNS is possible on the tender offer.

I don't normally give R1 forecasts too much credence as they are in a volatile and unpredictable industry. That said assuming they were done in Aug17 that would be 5 months through FY18 so to give Yume a $30m forecast for FY18 (if radiumone had been in from start) still implies a much bigger adj ebitda than $15-16m. They would also pretty much know the H1 performance at that stage. All the radiumone deal and one off costs wouldn't be in adj ebitda and at the time of doing the rad1 deal they forecast $1-3m ebitda from memory in FY18. If they can't get their forecast for the next 7 months within a range of 100% of midpoint we are in trouble.

Well it's very quiet here so been filling time with speculation, come up with three scenarios: 1. They don't want to put any RNS out during the offer period for fear it creates legal risk from US claimants and want YUME shareholders to decide purely on the F4 2. They didn't meet expectations in Q3 and so announcing that would put the YUME deal at risk so will wait 3. They're inept when it comes to shareholder relations Hoping it is 1 or 3!

I agree Eddie. Given in Jan 2016 they said in their trading update that they would give quarterly updates in future, they do need to state clearly if they intend to change this to shareholders in a written update. You can't feed it out at an AGM / EGM. I'm hoping they have so much good news they're just struggling with the wording!!! Normally any bad news arrives within a day or so of the quarter close so I'm not expecting that. Speculation starts to take hold if not - they wouldn't want to release bad news during the Yume offer period that's for sure. As you say, not difficult to manage shareholder expectations, just be clear on what you are doing. The business i work for announces all it's dates for results/TUs more than a year in advance.

Bmac, I think there is a small error in your tosca calculations where you have used the 0.7325 share ratio instead of the fact that Yume shareholders will end up with 33% of the new company. I reckon if Tosca don't buy any more Yume and they want 30% of the enlarged R1 they will need to buy 6.6m R1 shares. My numbers are: 34.7m Yume become 25.4m R1, Tosca 2.5m Yume become 1.8m R1. New R1 has 76.6m shares with Tosca having 14.5+1.8=16.3m or 21.3%. 30% is 23m. I think I'm right but hopefully someone else will confirm this! Either way I think Tosca will mop up any US sellers. Hopefully greater liquidity will help the share price rise on the back of positive news (or fall if negative news - just so Stt doesn't need to reply).

And I believe the Yume share price fall was the result of Tosca filing notice of their 7% Yume shareholding. Market now sees it a done deal with Tosca moving in, no chance of a counter offer so the 5-7% premium vs value of R1 offer vanished.

But it's still an advert Stt. They don't have a lead plaintiff even. If the announcement had said they had filed a claim, were representing 6.2% of Yume shareholders and you had 60 days to join the action before it was too late to be part of the action then it would be more concerning for the Yume board - but this is nothing more than ambulance chasing with no patients yet identified.

Looks like they're still fishing for interested shareholders. Also looks like the market thinks this is done and over now with Yume price moving pretty close to the implied value based on R1 share price.

Very interesting. Edenbrook had 6.98% of YUME. Not sure if Tosca had YUME holding before this announcement (and don't have time today to go back through F4 to see). Really is a done deal if Edenbrook have sold out, assume there will be a balancing announcement from somone at some stage?

I suspect it is Stt having a punt with a paltry 3%