Thanks for the blizzard of distraction Stt. Could have sworn I just asked about Quantcast though. Perhaps you could post that ranking since December as I’m sure you track it just like shares on loan.
stt, how are we doing on Quantcast these days? You used to provide a monthly update.
RPB1, far from comprehensive but the two recent broker notes i have (post YUME announcement) show the following forecasts: First one (Apr18) Turnover $ FY18 265M FY19 470M FY20 513M EBIT $ FY18 7.4M FY19 45.4M FY20 55.4M EPS FY18 10.2p FY19 42.5p FY20 51.8p (this one in pence) Cash $ FY18 21.2M FY19 62.8M FY20 111.4M Second one (Dec17) Turnover $ FY18 270M FY19 332M FY20 365M PBT Adj $ FY18 12.7M FY19 27.7M FY20 36.7M EPS FY18 25.8c FY19 52.7c FY20 69.8c (this one in cents) There was a Numis note too which I don't have a copy of. No doubt there will be updates to these after the results next week.
but it never maded it out of beta testing did it? Of course they'll talk it up when developing it but ignore the PR and there is nothing else behind it
Stt, I think that is a key question at the AGM as to why they don't list in the US. Seems the logical place given where revenues come from and the vast majority of business is there. As to the BOD / CEO I can't believe Perk is at any risk, it's a core part of the business. Don't know why you keep banging on about SFC as this never seemed to be anything more than a little IT whim that has never got any traction and certainly never delivered any revenue or profit. Completely the right decision to close it. I think they'll look to maximise the performance across R1, Perk, YUME and Radiumone, all of which should be complimentary. In 12-18 months then they could be on the acquisition trail again. Will be interesting to see what direction they spell out in the results.
Agree Biffa. Hopefully they'll demonstrate this change of direction in being more overt about a share buy back. They definitely need a period of consolidation and financial delivery. The cash flow should mean there is very little risk in starting a buy back in H1 FY19.
Of course I would be happy if ted was leaving because Eric said no more acquisitions until we’ve bedded in Yume properly
Agree Rusty, feels like there’s a message about integration of Yume and Rhythmone taking longer than expected. It did seem though that the synergies were being realised quickly with Yume. Doesn’t feel anything calamitous given reaffirmed both FY18 expectations and FY19 forecast. Haven’t looked in to the new guy yet but taking the time to get the right guy in would be better than always saying and here’s the new CEO.
Does seem odd. Of course, you can’t be CEO if you’re leading a Tosca backed low ball take over. How entrepreneurial would that be?
And I suppose that’s because their EU operations are so small it doesn’t make sense to continue them. Let me know when Criteo ceases their EU operation.
and it's as if nothing has changed based on the ads appearing on each web page i go to. I did check at 7am in case there was a profits warning from R1 and every other adtech busines Stt but couldn't spot any. It seems GDPR will be just another piece of legislation that all companies will get used to and adapt to over time. Apart from any blatant sensitive personal data breaches on a mass scale i'd be surprised if there was much in the way of fines over the next 12 months for any company.
Good luck with that request tractorhead
Joy, see below, in the last trading update it said around 4th June so I expect either 4th or 5th June.
I agree Rusty. From some other BB comments I'm interested to know if they have $13m of securities from the Yume deal that they had which could be added to the cash number. When they said $26m cash in the TU not sure if they will have included these, sold them since completing Yume deal or if they are still there. Some decent comment / guidance on Q1 will perhaps be the biggest driver of share price. Eric Singer i suspect will be more comfortable in giving guidance than the previous R1 BoD. Pricing is showing a strong trend, by my calcs the last 8 quarters have been: 1.70, 1.42, 2.26, 1.80, 2.86, 2.58, 2.71, 3.24. If Yume helps further drive price then it should underpin the FCF and targets of $50m+.
Stt, how's that investment hypothesis coming along? Thought you'd have done it by now given you were chasing me after 5 minutes.
Stt, I believe I asked you first so why don't you put a bit of effort in on some original thought and analysis and post it here. I've put various posts on here previously with my views on R1 and it's financials - that isn't a cue to go copying and pasting my stuff in with a couple of extra questions. You keep posting links from various trade press articles but never your own investment view on R1. Just link your back story to the financial performance of the business, your view of the next 2-3 year numbers and why therefore the share is not worth an investment at these levels. If not then just keep off the bulletin boards until you can work out an investment hypothesis.
I agree stt, 1gw and (hopefully) my posts are more interesting as they tend to be clear, well thought out positions. Even if you don't agree they aren't full of mistakes, inference or vague spurious rubbish lacking in any analysis. It would be much more interesting if you devoted your time to a clear well argued counter factual to the bull stance rather than criticising others investment strategies that are clearly laid out or dredging up posts from months and years ago. No one expects everyone to agree with their view but give us a break and put together a well argued post analysing R1s financial position and share price rating, preferably accurately.
Hi Stt, 1gw here, sorry Brassneck on LSE. I'm flattered by your investigation conclusion though as 1gw is one of the best posters on ADVFN in my opinion. I don't post at all on there (or any other BB apart from this one), though do read it. As it's Friday I know you'll be pleased to know that I've done my own investigation and concluded you are also gowlane on ADVFN. I don't really think that but there is an amazing coincidence in how inept you both seem to be. I can see why you don't post your views and analysis on here judging by your post on ADVFN today at 15.54. I know you like to taunt the long term holders who may have been in when the all time high of 23500p was hit but I feel I should now point out that if it was �2.35p in old money that would be 2350p now, not 23500. Also, if you were taking 22p off this number which i assume you did in that post (or tried to) you would get 23478 not 23578. Of course, you should be taking 220 off in any case which would have got you 23280 but the right answer is really 2130p to go. I can see why you don't seem to hold many shares and plump for TLY when you do buy, thinking it's a great investment. I also see you keep saying it will be a few months before we know if R1 is making any money. I take it you didn't see the recent trading update then? This clearly said (in numbers so you may have struggled) cash from operations 21.2m, platform investment 4m so they made 17.2m cash. If they hadn't made cash then with the 30.5m acquisition costs their cash balance would have been 9m. This may also help gowlane answer his question about all the money they are losing and if they will ever make money again as they clearly stated to the stock market that they are making money and this will grow materially through FY19. To put it in language you may understand, they will make more free cash each month than the market cap of TLY (if you exclude the TLY cash balance from the market cap) in FY19. R1 won't be doing a share placing (unless to fund a major acquisition - which i hope they won't do in the next 12-18 months). They will be buying back shares. No doubt by then that will be a sign, for some, that they have run out of ideas and can't put that money to good use. If you do your maths correctly on the fundamentals here then R1 is an obvious investment at this level, but then I have been on the positive side for some time so would say that. As ever though, always open to a clear, logical and well argued counter position. Just never seen one posted.
Well of course I didn’t miss it. If you refer to my post 1234 from 6th June 1998 I said then I can’t believe I missed that classic from my post Eddie.
Bmac, interesting post. I was thinking of buying some, just a punt at that price, nothing more than a punt. I may wait until TLY gets to a market cap of about half its revenues. But I can see them running out of cash and needing more, no sign of real profits, not even adj Ebitda. Looks like they’re buying revenues too. There must be loads of long term shareholders underwater with TLY. I expect they’ll need a revolving credit facility too. It will be at least another 12 months or more before we see whether Vocare is going to make any money or be GDPR compliant. Their consensus forecast look good according to Digitallook, FY18 2m loss, FY19 1.76m loss, FY20 0.75m loss. I wish there was some jam tomorrow with TLY. I’m waiting for them to go lower, which they look like they will, then perhaps I’ll take a punt. It’s only a punt though, not an investment.