Member Info for Brassneck

Of course I would be happy if ted was leaving because Eric said no more acquisitions until we’ve bedded in Yume properly

Agree Rusty, feels like there’s a message about integration of Yume and Rhythmone taking longer than expected. It did seem though that the synergies were being realised quickly with Yume. Doesn’t feel anything calamitous given reaffirmed both FY18 expectations and FY19 forecast. Haven’t looked in to the new guy yet but taking the time to get the right guy in would be better than always saying and here’s the new CEO.

Does seem odd. Of course, you can’t be CEO if you’re leading a Tosca backed low ball take over. How entrepreneurial would that be?

And I suppose that’s because their EU operations are so small it doesn’t make sense to continue them. Let me know when Criteo ceases their EU operation.

and it's as if nothing has changed based on the ads appearing on each web page i go to. I did check at 7am in case there was a profits warning from R1 and every other adtech busines Stt but couldn't spot any. It seems GDPR will be just another piece of legislation that all companies will get used to and adapt to over time. Apart from any blatant sensitive personal data breaches on a mass scale i'd be surprised if there was much in the way of fines over the next 12 months for any company.

Good luck with that request tractorhead

Joy, see below, in the last trading update it said around 4th June so I expect either 4th or 5th June.

I agree Rusty. From some other BB comments I'm interested to know if they have $13m of securities from the Yume deal that they had which could be added to the cash number. When they said $26m cash in the TU not sure if they will have included these, sold them since completing Yume deal or if they are still there. Some decent comment / guidance on Q1 will perhaps be the biggest driver of share price. Eric Singer i suspect will be more comfortable in giving guidance than the previous R1 BoD. Pricing is showing a strong trend, by my calcs the last 8 quarters have been: 1.70, 1.42, 2.26, 1.80, 2.86, 2.58, 2.71, 3.24. If Yume helps further drive price then it should underpin the FCF and targets of $50m+.

Stt, how's that investment hypothesis coming along? Thought you'd have done it by now given you were chasing me after 5 minutes.

Stt, I believe I asked you first so why don't you put a bit of effort in on some original thought and analysis and post it here. I've put various posts on here previously with my views on R1 and it's financials - that isn't a cue to go copying and pasting my stuff in with a couple of extra questions. You keep posting links from various trade press articles but never your own investment view on R1. Just link your back story to the financial performance of the business, your view of the next 2-3 year numbers and why therefore the share is not worth an investment at these levels. If not then just keep off the bulletin boards until you can work out an investment hypothesis.

I agree stt, 1gw and (hopefully) my posts are more interesting as they tend to be clear, well thought out positions. Even if you don't agree they aren't full of mistakes, inference or vague spurious rubbish lacking in any analysis. It would be much more interesting if you devoted your time to a clear well argued counter factual to the bull stance rather than criticising others investment strategies that are clearly laid out or dredging up posts from months and years ago. No one expects everyone to agree with their view but give us a break and put together a well argued post analysing R1s financial position and share price rating, preferably accurately.

Hi Stt, 1gw here, sorry Brassneck on LSE. I'm flattered by your investigation conclusion though as 1gw is one of the best posters on ADVFN in my opinion. I don't post at all on there (or any other BB apart from this one), though do read it. As it's Friday I know you'll be pleased to know that I've done my own investigation and concluded you are also gowlane on ADVFN. I don't really think that but there is an amazing coincidence in how inept you both seem to be. I can see why you don't post your views and analysis on here judging by your post on ADVFN today at 15.54. I know you like to taunt the long term holders who may have been in when the all time high of 23500p was hit but I feel I should now point out that if it was �2.35p in old money that would be 2350p now, not 23500. Also, if you were taking 22p off this number which i assume you did in that post (or tried to) you would get 23478 not 23578. Of course, you should be taking 220 off in any case which would have got you 23280 but the right answer is really 2130p to go. I can see why you don't seem to hold many shares and plump for TLY when you do buy, thinking it's a great investment. I also see you keep saying it will be a few months before we know if R1 is making any money. I take it you didn't see the recent trading update then? This clearly said (in numbers so you may have struggled) cash from operations 21.2m, platform investment 4m so they made 17.2m cash. If they hadn't made cash then with the 30.5m acquisition costs their cash balance would have been 9m. This may also help gowlane answer his question about all the money they are losing and if they will ever make money again as they clearly stated to the stock market that they are making money and this will grow materially through FY19. To put it in language you may understand, they will make more free cash each month than the market cap of TLY (if you exclude the TLY cash balance from the market cap) in FY19. R1 won't be doing a share placing (unless to fund a major acquisition - which i hope they won't do in the next 12-18 months). They will be buying back shares. No doubt by then that will be a sign, for some, that they have run out of ideas and can't put that money to good use. If you do your maths correctly on the fundamentals here then R1 is an obvious investment at this level, but then I have been on the positive side for some time so would say that. As ever though, always open to a clear, logical and well argued counter position. Just never seen one posted.

Well of course I didn’t miss it. If you refer to my post 1234 from 6th June 1998 I said then I can’t believe I missed that classic from my post Eddie.

Bmac, interesting post. I was thinking of buying some, just a punt at that price, nothing more than a punt. I may wait until TLY gets to a market cap of about half its revenues. But I can see them running out of cash and needing more, no sign of real profits, not even adj Ebitda. Looks like they’re buying revenues too. There must be loads of long term shareholders underwater with TLY. I expect they’ll need a revolving credit facility too. It will be at least another 12 months or more before we see whether Vocare is going to make any money or be GDPR compliant. Their consensus forecast look good according to Digitallook, FY18 2m loss, FY19 1.76m loss, FY20 0.75m loss. I wish there was some jam tomorrow with TLY. I’m waiting for them to go lower, which they look like they will, then perhaps I’ll take a punt. It’s only a punt though, not an investment.

I may have been a bit bullish on cash. Whitman Howard's forecast was for 22m cash at year end so they exceeded their forecast. Of course by June the actual results should be a bit better given these are the 'at least' numbers. At half year they improved on their TU numbers in each area.

Stt, I do think the revenue number was soft. Don't know whether this is because they weren't chasing low margin revenue but focussing on higher margin premium business but until we get the full results it will be difficult to conclude. They were soft at the half year and a number of brokers reduced their revenue forecasts. I did think they would come in around 270-280m though. I think they explained Rad1 at the half year and so don't think this contributes to the analysis at all in these figures from an EBITDA perspective and so 14m is not a miss. On YUME I've read a number of times your posts saying they rushed the deal through 2 months early but can't see find any link with an actual date apart from calendar Q1 which they achieved. I'm sure they closed it out as soon as they could once they got the 50% needed in the tender but every business would do that rather than leaving the deal open. Perhaps you could post the link that says they will conclude on 31st Mar 2018, you're normally pretty good at finding links. YUME will have contributed (I hope) though in the FY18 numbers so there is an implied slight miss in reporting 14m adj EBITDA. You are quite pedantic about people's posts though so i should point out that you would be better to quote the right quarter as a comparison. You need YUME Q1 numbers not Q2. Jan - Mar 17 YUME did 36.4m revenue and 4.3m adj ebitda. I know those numbers are smaller than yours but that's probably just a coincidence. (slide 13 of their May 2017 IR presentation http://investors.yume.com/events-and-presentations/2017/default.aspx). The key for me though was the guidance given and conversion to being cash flow positive. If it were not for that then I think there would have been some further questions to ask. With Ted being so clear that they are on target for this year's concensus it moves the focus to that - and if they can achieve those numbers the current share price is way way too low.

Whitman Howard have put out a note. Price target still �7.70. FY19 EBITDA forecast $58.4m and free cash of over $40m. Expect buy back / div in H2 FY19 and believe getting vulnerable to a takeover at current share price levels. They think it's worth a punt too.

I thought we couldn't rely on those Stt? I think the bit you need to read is where the CEO said happy with concensus for FY19. Suggest you look that up and focus on that vs the share price. Having said that, your final sentance suggests you are about to become a big supporter of R1. I look forward to all the positive industry news you've been holding back being posted with links...

Rusty, if you have Stt on filter you would not have seen his post which Gindog was referring to, not yours, i think we all know you're a supporter of R1

Stt, I'd be happy with 'in line' over the next 12 months. They have done this over the last 18 months and they can't run ahead of time. Somewhere around $50-60m Adjusted EBITDA and $45m PBT is transformational for this business. Cash generation would be excellent and the prospect of buy back much greater. Hopefully they won't acquire again in the next 12 months but settle down what they have (unless a gift horse comes along like Rad1). Cash in bank was good at $26m, looks like they didn't need to use those revolving loan facilities after all.