Member Info for Brassneck

Not finished yet GW will see how tomorrow shapes up share price wise but intending to repeat activity Thurs or Fri. I'm pretty confident we'll be north of 4.00 by Christmas so money where the gut feel is time. I'm already past the point where it's a disproportionate holding but rules are there to be broken. Not GDPR rules though.

Stt, perhaps GDPR won't amount to much and that's why not much has happened since May 25th. Google antitrust is good news for ad tech as it helps put a brake on their dominance in this area.

I'm still struggling with why you post incessantly on here where you don't hold and yet never post on TLY where you do hold and there are all sorts of challenges to worry about.

I also couldn't help but notice your stunning financial take on Gem Diamonds, if they keep finding diamonds the share price will take care of itself - brilliant - I think you should hit Shell and BP next and let their bulletin boards know that if they keep finding oil the share price will take care of itself...

Yes, only a short delay in the end

Well they seemed to have run out of shares after 24k, not sure if last 2 trades will go through for 2014 and 2018.

Well finally cash cleared post TU so will dip in again. As Rusty likes the algos i’ll do my own version World Cup related so you should see the pattern emerge. Hopefully advance warning will stop the ramper accusations.

Oil, as ever it isn’t very clear what’s in the measures but singer were at EPS adjusted at 61.2c which I think is based off of an adj PBT of 49m rather than adj EBITDA of 55.2m. Hope that makes sense!

Safi, I’m pretty sure the estimates will be based on adjusted ebitda or some form of adjusted profit rather than based on PBT. Difficult to know what the exceptionals will be as they take cost out over the course of the year. I hope though that there won’t be 14m of acquisition costs this year!

And yet the consensus eps has remained at 56c throughout, reflecting the management statements about moving away from low profit business. At the end of the singer note it showed that EPS estimates for FY19 and FY20 in the last 24hours from when published had moved up 3-5%. I guess we won’t know for a few months.

Back home now so looked at Q1 trading numbers further. Pricing is key I feel.

If you use FY18 quarterly numbers for Q2, Q3 and Q4 but change the price to 4.32 which they got in Q1 FY19 you would get revenues in FY19 of 406m. Broken out as:
Q1 87m, Q2 116m, Q3 125m, Q4 79m

But that excludes any Yume benefit in Q2 or Q3. Assumes no rebound in Q4 from FY18 weak performance. Any pricing growth would also be of benefit if they can achieve that as well as the fill rates seen in FY18 Q2 and Q3 then I don't see much risk to revenues on the 420m N1+Singer have in their forecast.

Oil, I think DL must contain some old forecasts in their average that doesn’t take account of Yume. Brokers are all over 400m for revenue. Singer note yesterday had Rev 420m, Adjusted EBITDA at 55m, adj PBT at 49m and eps at 61.2c. This is my read of consensus that management say they are on track for.

Thanks Biffa, do put some more detail up, if only to give Stt some opportunities to turn them all in to negatives, he does want the bull and bear points after all.

So we’re looking at FY20 now are we Stt? I suspect that is just a reflection of new forecasts from Brokers for FY20 post results. N+1 Singer have only just put their estimate out. Your revenue numbers were for FY19. Any revised profit guidance for FY19? Can’t you just admit R1 are very well positioned to deliver on FY19 profit and move on to another company board where you are actually a shareholder?

Stt, I don't think they've changed the profit expectations/forecast at all. I'd much sooner they hit that than revenue. Of course, do provide a link to any reduced profit forecast you can find.

Oil, we had 2 months of Yume in Q4 though so if that was the reason I would have expected Q4 to move up significantly but it didn’t. R1 have been good at keeping quiet on shifts in their business. The split between rhythm max and off platform trend wasn’t disclosed until H1 results when it became apparent non rhythmmax volumes were in decline.

Blimey, feel like I’m being Stt now, that’s a massive shift to mobile in one quarter. They’ve changed something here or switched off some low profit desktop. Worth asking at AGM though

To add to stt’s questions would be good to understand how much of the pricing difference between Q4 and Q1 flows to profit or has cost of supply gone up 30% too. Based on the TU if we had the same 3.36 price in Q1 there would be a 20m difference in revenue. If the majority of the 20m flows to profit then that signals strong profit growth.

Well good luck for tomorrow guys. Hopefully a decent trading update first thing and then a productive AGM. Be good to hear what gets discussed from those attending. Thanks in advance for that. Should go on all day based on Stt’s questions.

I’m sending 1GW instead Stt as I’m out of the country remember, but I will be picking up with the BoD next week. However I’m sure whatever people post from their own discussions at the AGM you’ll just dismiss as blinkered posters. How’s The search going for Gowlane’s post by the way?

You must be a joy at parties Stt

Stt, don’t worry, I won’t mention gowlane’s 15m forecast in this note but you do make me laugh. With R1 you post continuously on multiple boards even though you don’t own shares. TLY release their results and you don’t seem to post anything on their board but do on the ADVFN RTHM board where you say they were good results. R1’s results were lambasted by you. It looks to me that TLY reported PBT of 2.1m but that included 1.2m acquisition costs and a one off 6.5m gain so really a 3.2m loss, and that ignores the impairment on wasted development costs (no mention of that either whereas any impairment at R1 is end of the world stuff). R1 made a PBT loss of 14m but that included 14m of acquisition costs. Both businesses are trying to grow through acquisition and organic growth, both have been loss making. I could understand if you were constantly posting negative stuff on the TLY board but you seem to view similar businesses in similar stages of development as completely different prospects. Bizarre. I can only summise that you crystallised a big loss on RTHM and are yet to crystallise one on TLY, at which point they’ll be in for the same treatment. By the way, I hope you don’t make a loss on TLY but that you are more balanced on RHTM. Perhaps this weeks trading update will give you the opportunity to turn over a new leaf?