Member Info for Brassneck

Berenberg raised their target price to 6.50 for Tap which would mean a market cap around 420m.

Well lots of positive stuff out there on ad trends...

Video Advertising growth of 9%/yr in US, 15.4% growth in Europe https://www.statista.com/outlook/218/104/video-advertising/north-america

Aussies enjoy a bit of video ad spend growth too https://www.iabaustralia.com.au/news-and-updates/iab-press-releases/item/22-iab-press-releases/2624-marketers-continue-to-reinvest-strongly-in-digital-advertising

Asia like a bit of adspend too http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/Corporate/30353379

It seems R1 are in a growth market that almost no-one seems to think will slow any time soon with video and mobile the place to be.

Well I think it's time to filter you out Stt. I'm a pretty reasonable guy but you are adding nothing to this board and won't respond to any issues and questions raised. I don't need a cuttings service, least of all one that's months old and repeats itself constantly. Your latest post is a classic, Dataxu for the 20 or 30th time and May's WFA press release, most of which is highly advantageous to R1's proposition - though that seems to have passed you by, focussing instead on one element of one item on the list. Mind numbing in the extreme.

I'll take you off filter when the next trading update comes out in October.

Stt, just seen your post on advfn, you really don’t get it do you? The open to all was targeted at you, just another post from me trying to get you to engage in debate. Any other poster would just post their opinion. It seems only you fail to engage in debate at any and every opportunity. Posting links isn’t a debate or discussion. You’ve never, as far as I can remember, ever posted your own thoughts and analysis on any discussion board. Are you incapable of independent thought? I’m more than happy to engage with a coherent discussion on the likely future for R1, be it a path to profitability or wider losses. I’ve posted many a time my views on why I think it’s the former of those. For one last time just post your view of H1 revenues and why/how you get to that number. You’d be amazed what a better quality debate the whole board would then have.

Still waiting for the revenue estimate Stt. In the meantime, here’s some discussion from me. I wonder if back in May when Videology filed for chapter 11 and kick started the bidding for its assets whether Ted wanted to bid for them? Eric and Tosca said no and so Ted felt he had to go? Plausible I think and could explain the timing of it all. Price of joining in a discussion on this topic is a H1 FY19 revenue estimate and rationale but it’s open to all!

Stt, just pop your own H1 FY19 revenue, cash and profit(loss) estimate on the end old boy. You must have posted that list 10-20 times before and it still doesn't add anything to the discussion without your view on what is likely to be the outcome for FY19.

Agree again Eddie.

Stt, why don't you simply give us your view of what H1 revenues will be and your logic for arriving at that figure. Should be a simple start.

Agree with that Eddie

Did they not see GDPR as their big strategic play to drive competitive advantage over the other adtech businesses 1GW? Stt still thinking about his reply before we can have some debate and discussion that he’s always banging on about.

Stt, can you explain how ads.txt can give a competitive advantage, it’s a file format? Can you explain how GDPR can give a competitive advantage, its the law? Any business can be transparent on fees so how do you get competitive advantage over that? Your views would be appreciated and a surprise if you actually gave them.

Quite Stt so the question is where can you get competitive advantage as a business in ad tech? This is partly why I think Pixalate is an important part of the R1 story as being the cleanest is a differentiator. Ads.txt, GDPR and fee transparency do not carry any opportunity of competitive advantage. I believe there will be more focus and quality of inventory in the future which should put R1 in a good place if they can keep the focus on this area.

Very long time that should have been

Just because that has been their history Stt. Bad news comes very quickly after quarter end. In line appears around week 2 or 3 after quarter end. I don’t know when they release ahead of expectations TUs as they haven’t had one for a very low my time.

Would be nice to see some concerted buying in the run up to Oct TU. just so long as TU doesn’t arrive first week in Oct as that would signal a profit warning. If no news in week 1 Oct then should be very positive.

I hope you posted that on the Amazon board too Stt and told them Amazon won't get anywhere until they improve their ads.txt ranking

Stt, your ads.txt obsession does make me laugh. Why on earth would researchers look at the io dashboard to determine which companies to research? Much more likely they looked at size of revenues, though I have no idea. Unless of course they thought ads.txt was a con and meaningless and easily circumvented. After all Index Exchange are 5th ranked there but much lower on Pixalate.

Well we can always count on you Stt for irrelevant posts. I take it this is your template for any positive news where you can’t immediately see a negative, refer to the FY18 loss. I think that had more to do with acquisition costs than Pixalate. Whilst there isn’t any provable direct connection between Pixalate and revenue it has to help with the pitch. For certain if Amazon were in the same position as R1 there would be a blizzard of PR and you’d be the first one posting that on here saying what are R1 doing about it. Better to stay silent Stt than reinforce your reputation. Your views would carry much more weight if you had some balance.

Thanks DW. I always think Big Bear is a little too optimistic. I'd be delighted with $430m for this year. $500m far too optimistic. I'm also not sure we'll see gross margins move up much from 43% that we saw in H2 FY18 as Yume will have had most of it's impact with higher margin revenues in that half.

For me it's all down to operating expenses which BB highlighted. I think the combined number was $162m before merger and they talked about $15m synergies which gets them to $147m. If it's another 20% from that then happy days as we'll be down to $120m. If it's 20%off the $162m then we're at $130m. If they don't get near to hitting these then I can't see them making the concensus profit numbers.

On my fag packet if they hit $130m OpEx I get an operating profit of at least $45m before exceptionals, finance and tax. I do think exceptionals will be quite hefty if they're restructuring to that extent - but at least there won't be any acquisition costs!!

I see the latest quarter rankings are out. Excellent performance from R1...
US Global - 1st Apr, May and June
Intl Global - 2nd Apr, May and June
Mobile - 5th Apr, 3rd May, 2nd June
Video US - 10th Apr, 8th May and 6th June
Video Intl - 4th Apr, 1st May and 2nd June

Needless to say there isn't another adtech firm with anything like that set of results.

Hopefully, under Jorg the sales team can start to try and convert this in to a competitive advantage when pitching for business.

i don't think you can say the index exchange chart reflects the bid caching issue. The date range on the chart is 6 years and appears to stop at June 2018 so not sure the chart shows the drop off as you suggest. Feels like you're using a picture to fit your narrative, asserting you're right.

Quancast does show a drop on the Index Exchange network since 13 Aug and we all know that updates daily.Which I think you could say was fall out from the bid caching story.

Not sure you can draw the conclusions you have done about ads.txt from the BuiltWith site as that isn't just an ads.txt view unlike the industry dashboard, from which I'm fully aware of the trends for the last 5 months as I've tracked that since 1GW first posted it in March (that was before we became the same person)