Member Info for Brassneck

No, hope not. Assume all PIs review price quoted before dealing. Only lazy institutions or Lagos seem to trade outside the spread

Was that your month end buy graham?

Yes, I've got losses on R1 with a buy in just over £2.50. I don't subscribe to your theory though and have argued my position and discussed my forecasts over on the R1 board.

This is a TLY board though so if you don't agree with 1GW why not post your counter factual rather than hurl insults at him. The whole board would benefit far more from this and you seem much closer to what's going on in TLY's sector than any other contributor on this board (possibly with the exception of Deltrotter).

There are risks with this share but I'm not concerned at this stage and feel they are on the right track. An incoming Labour government might change that view but outside of that there should be plenty of upside on my 17.44p average.

Ouch, TLY losses must be hurting, if you're invested at all that is.

Don't know 1GW from Adam. He just tends to write balanced and well thought through logical posts. I don't agree with all of them by any means but at least he can state and discuss his position.

Assuming you've been analysing the accounts why do you feel R1 will collapse but TLY won't?

Graham, how many shares in TLY do you actually own? You forever go on about buying every month but I don't seem to recall you providing any advance notice of any buys - I could be wrong here but none spring to mind.

I think 1GW is a genuine investor and does call out his trades, who knows if it's all of them or not, but if he was a deramper I don't think he'd be saying he is holding on for a turnaround he'd say he sold them all and be posting much more negatively.

The fact is that TLY do need to demonstrate positive cash flow and then real profits. That and a couple of contract wins would propel the share price I'm sure - that's why I bought in.

Max, it is positive but would temper it a little in that the 25 Sep update only spoke of the half year, which they pretty much knew at the time of release. There wasn’t anything confirming full year expectations so I wouldn’t read anything in to Q3 or full year. Of course by 13 Dec they will pretty much have finished Q3 so the outlook comments will be crucial when they do release H1 results

Have added another £9k this morning across 3 trades, expected a bigger jump.

I suspect that would now enable them to consider starting the buy back. It would have been difficult PR wise to be buying back shares whilst having an area rated as inadequate. Should help transform their contract tendering as much better to be able to say no area rated inadequate. A couple of material contract wins would do more for the share price than a buy back I think.

Allenby Capital have put a note out this morning. They haven't changed any of their forecasts for FY19 or FY20. With £1.4m EBITDA in FY19 and £2.4m EBITDA in FY 20.

In summary...... "With the Group enjoying a strong cash position equivalent to 81% of its current market capitalisation, the potential for higher gross margins, increased funding for the NHS and a strong pipeline of contract opportunities, we believe that the shares are undervalued."

Be nice to close above 20p ready for Monday

Assume people have seen the Criteo results, link below

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/criteo-reports-results-for-the-third-quarter-2018-announces-acquisition-of-an-attractive-app-install-advertising-solution-and-announces-a-80m-share-repurchase-program-300740887.html

Revenue, Adj EBITDA and cash flow down but still managing a $80m buy back.

Interesting to see what R1 come up with soon...

Bit short on numbers but cash comment reassuring. Looks heavily oversold given progress in turn around. Dropping a third tranch in shortly of £12k assuming the shares are there to buy sub 18.5. Will split over 3 trades.

Just so you know the two trades at 14.13 and 14.14 were buys by me. One has come up a sell and one a don't know on the LSE trades

Instadeth, I’m not surprised they didn’t include cash in the TU just before month end. I suspect many invoices are raised at the end of each month with payment due at roughly 30, 60 or 90 days so always at or around a month end so the final week will be very volatile in terms of cash in. We’d normally have a TU around now which would have stated the cash position at the end of the half, ahead of the formal H1 results. I’m not expecting a big jump in their cash pile despite c20m adj ebitda. Cash at 30m would be a good outcome for H1. I would expect a big jump in H2 though with the seasonal working capital unwind which will dampen the H1 number. All things being equal around 50-60m at end of FY19 is still the forecast.

Wouldn’t be the first time I’ve bought a share that I thought couldn’t possibly go down much further then a few months later see myself buying more at a lower price. R1 a case in point and still holding over 3 years later. Assuming the next TU shows them on track with their plan the share price should move up materially. Not sure they will kick off the buy back, feels like the BoDs PR on that was misplaced and that hasn’t helped the share price trend.

If it doubles today I may sell but I tend to hold unti businessl strategy delivers material upside

Well having sat on the sidelines decided to have a small punt here. Couple of buys about to go in for just over £9k. Just for Stt I reiterate I’m not 1GW.

I would expect it to. Probably very wide spread at start then quickly narrow to c234 230 spread depending on interest. But then my trading skills are limited and timing usually poor hence why I tend to buy a stake and hold in companies where I feel they are undervalued rather than dip in and out. Plenty more upside in this one I think.

Instadeth, no need to worry, those 2 trades were yesterday, 25th Sept not today. Given the UT distorted the close I would expect an open around 232 though.

He’ll be waiting for the first share price fall to tell us it’s all doom and gloom, heading back to 180. It would be good though to break 240 which was the ceiling after the last push up. A retrace from here is still quite possible. No doubt the chartists can inform what it could mean if we break above 240.