Member Info for BradSmith

donkey40
11 Jan '20 - 16:53 - 7897 of 7898

I have read others saying that TG scoured the globe for CBM resources and decided Botswana was one of the best. Can anyone refer me to where he said that please?
Nugacity
11 Jan '20 - 17:33 - 7898 of 7898 Edit

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hrxkD7kMltQ

4 minutes into it if it is too painful to listen to it all.

In a good mood after a 2-0 win for Wimborne Town.

Stay tuned in if you want to hear the earlier broadcast in 2015 which is equally or even more informative.
The two videos are why I am convinced - logically superb! Here is that link.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4yyYJiNpdWM

While I'm breaking my 2020 resolution here - please note TG's error in the first video.
He said agreements would be quick from the coal experiences.
Totally forgiveable error, who knew Botswana would treat CBM as a completely new entity? And would word their documentation so nobody was acceptable to bid.

BTS , multibagger conveys the wrong impression on what I meant, I'll admit.

What I should have said it that each of my 5p shares is worth 20 times the proportion of TLOU , compared to the proportion of SXX. Until very recently that was offset by SXX having much more potential than TLOU once operational.

SXX now recommend a sell out to Anglo American and the potential for shareholders is around 67% losses on an average of 15p paid - the last share issue!!!!

Very few people have paid as much as 15p for a TLOU share and I feel sorry for those who have at the minute.
Until gas flows are announced officially they will worry that they'll see their money back.

But if those of us who believe in TLOU's words are right to believe, imho the current 5p will become 15p very quickly. In the same quarter as the announcement I would say? I will be surprised if Botswana risks losing their chance to forge an agreement which will keep their foot in the door for further expansion beyond #3 and #4.

If it is takes almost a year to be in our position for an initial 2Mw how long would it take to take an agreement on 93Mw with all the infrastructure and gas flows that'd need?????????? Not to mention the financing and time for all of that to just to get started. If i was a billionaire would I risk financing in a company whichis producing gas power at Selemo, and is on the verge of achieving enough gas to power 2MW generation and distribution within a budget of $30M from Lesedi, or would I prefer to plough a hell of a lot more into a company that has nothing to show to do, needs 40 times the gas and a lot of luck to power a huge 100Mw generator from scratch - the preference of an imbecile who posts on a thread called "CEO's third $Billion+ gas company in the making" after the guy who is conducting the 2Mw orchestra?

I think I filtered that individual on this site (LSE) when he was called the Kenner - he was banned by LSE but on ADVFN they have a history of never banning subscribers under virtually any circumstances. If they are the same imbecile , he pays a subscription over there and is as popular there as he was here as Kenner. D'you know ken?

IQ reflects intelligence rather than knowledge. Knowing about CBM to the nth degree may not be my forte but reading what the "CEO's third $Billion" character has to say, makes sense to me and chukkers and others on here. His has knowlede to the nth+1 degree on matter CBM ...... and may well be a saint before long as Kenner suggests.

The parrot has squawked and done the minor bird impression of this board yet again - he has repeated the same old yet again.
Tlou have 450M shares issued and he thinks that is a lot?

Having gone through the SXX experience for a decade with a few shares out of 9Billion, I am more than happy with twice as many here out 450M and at a fraction of the cost.
Given the share prices are similar, around 5p . I reckon I am on 20 x multi-bagger in a company that now has much better prospects! Having a leader tell us he is interested in looking after us shareholders is magnificent after the moron on SXX lead us up the garden path, and then accused us of not seeking investor advice. Both Aussies , but TLOU's is 24 carat Aussie whilst the other one was hatched in Yeovil and is molten chocolate buttons!

"we all know which finger "
the first abacus perhaps :0)

Eskom's problems reveal what we should know already.
My first investigations a few years ago revealed that Botswana were paying a premium for South African electricity. SA had a shortage itself but could not refuse the money available from Botswana. That suggested TLOU could sell coals to Newcastle and did not actually need a PPA with Botswana - something the other board has never recognised.

Tlou talk about a fair price and savings for their customers, giving them options outside of those countries.
I like to think the outside countries are only useful to keep the Botswanas dealings with us honest.
TLOU have been very clever imho in keeping all options open. I don't begrudge the BOD their salaries for a second.
For all we know they have ordered the first generator and some pylons because the flow rates are fine!
That is as likely as the fictional share issues that are imminent on the dark side of TLOU chatrooms!
ITGIT - in TG I trust.

If anyone doubts the need for domestic power in Botswana , read this

============ less than 3 years ago ============
Eskom and Botswana Power Corporation sign new firm long-term power supply agreement
?
Wednesday, 05 April 2017: Eskom and Botswana Power Corporation (BPC) have signed a three-year firm power supply agreement, a move that is in line with Eskom’s plan to increase its electricity exports to South Africa’s neighbouring states.

Eskom currently has excess capacity of about 4000 MW, excluding an operating margin.

Last Friday, Eskom’s Interim Group Chief Executive, Mr Matshela Koko met his BPC counterpart Dr Stefan Schwarzfischer to conclude the power supply agreement and to discuss other areas of potential co-operation.

====== a few days ago =====

https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/africa/215653/first-day-at-the-death-spiral-for-new-eskom-ceo/

I think we'll be delivering electricity before you calculate such things Chukkers :O)

I am not even sure what a trillion means any more!

e.g.

A trillion is a number with two distinct definitions:

1,000,000,000,000, i.e. one million million, or 1012 (ten to the twelfth power), as defined on the short scale. This is now the meaning in both American and British English.
1,000,000,000,000,000,000, i.e. 1018 (ten to the eighteenth power), as defined on the long scale. This is one million times larger than the short scale trillion. This is the former meaning in British English and the current use in many non-English-speaking countries.

Chukkers the markets are not even one star currently :O) (you've given them 4).
Once they have a lift they'll improve perhaps.

Why do some people ignore what the board are telling us whilst other don't doubt them?

We know that dewatering a site for the first time is potentially a long process.
The obvious factors are 1. how much water there is 2. How permeable the terrain/coal is to allow it to flow.

That is where we are - the water is profuse and dewatering is taking a while.
As the water is dispersed there is an opportunity for the gas to to escape into our clutches.
We know that trillions of cu ft of methane are certified, but again permeability raises its ugly head.

If permeability allows water to flow, you'd think that gas will find it easier?

And there we are - waiting to see how much gas flowing, which is what the board is telling us.

They also tell us they are not looking to issue bucket loads of shares to water down the value of share.
They are going to try self financing the project by ploughing any income back into extra power production and by borrowing.

Again , that is what they tell us.

So why do people doubt them? If dewatering had gone to plan they'd hope to have the gas flows available in Q4/2019 and now it is Q1/2020 , shock horror - no flows ready for us!

I have noticed that if the sp rises at all or there is positive news the scaremongers come out of the woodwork and quote this time delay (how many weeks) that they are going to run out of money and will need another share issue!

The project is fully funded until the end of Q2 for the current operations. The big money will be needed once the gas flows warrant buying generators and sticking poles in the ground - money expected to come from BDC ($10M up to $30M is quoted).

Imo, our share price is low because of the scaremongers and not about the board. If we get into Q2 and there is no news about flows or agreements and the need for a share issue rears it's head I'll start to wonder myself. Until then I accept the news is likely to come in Q1 and then I'll judge their performance.

Well done MM, this doesn't guarantee that Botswana have positive news from TLOU to encourage the CBM path , but it doesn't indicate the opposite either.

Had the license been for Solar power it would have been it would not have been quite so encouraging.
At least we know the government is getting up to speed after the election. Once the gas flow is certified , progress looks like it could be swifter than some feared.

A piece of string?
Wait for the gas flows - the key to everything Lesedi. From there it could be all systems go at Lesedi or 'over to Mamba' and more worry. I hope both will prove commercial but Lesedi expansion will be quicker. From MM's post secondary dewatering is usually faster, and TG hinted that once the first generator is up and running, expansion is easier from there.

https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Results-of-simulation-runs-can-be-plotted-and-viewed-graphically_fig5_266272107
has a 365 day scale which is encouraging. We have a few months before the year is up.
If that emulator is sensible, we'll get those flow rates announced reasonably soon - as suggested by TLOU.

There is no context supplied for your illustrations Chukkers.
What you are showing is the results of a piece of software (a CBM emulator) using umpteen parameters for the theoretical site.
We have moved on miles from Monte Carlo statistics to empirical testing (set the dials, experience the results) - facts rather than potential fiction.

Sorry to rain on your parade .... 4 years is for fictional permeability, water, and lord knows what production levels.
Most of the info quotes India and China so maybe 4 years for electricity to power half the world's population?

Best to rely on TG and Colm and the overdue RNS .... staged production isn't planning to produce in 4 years times.

Heads all over the place.
I saw my IG portfolio was looking a bit better and was bemused that TLOU is still much the same!

Then realised SXX had moved up. Quite keen to see why until I found there is a recommended sell at 5.5p to Anglo American - not a done deal , could be less than 5.5p, but the sp has just been matching that today.

Big loss for me .... my investments now rely totally on TG and will need to be good to recover from disasters at HMV, USOP, AVN and now SXX! Sorry I ever read my mates Red Hot Penny shares sheets all those years ago.

I felt sorry for him when the taxman forced him to sell SXX at 28p ...... that divorce made him a packet!

I started wondering if my age related memory deficiencies reflect upon my IQ.
Happily it seems not. Whilst mine has dropped a little bit since the BBC one years ago, and that one was weird in how it worked. The BBC test put a ceiling of 136 on my younger friends due to their age so I was able to beat them despite them being very bright imho. I regarded one as near genius and he scored that 136.

I'm pleased with the score on two tests I have found that are free, they varied by 5 points, this one was the harder one and had more variety in the questions.

Another one I did today took quite a while but cost £5 to get the results - only revealed at the end. Blow that!
This one had no catches at the end - it is free as it says on the tin.
https://www.free-iqtest.net/

This was the £5 test, started very simple from memory, probably to get those £5 from lower iq people?
http://iq-test.co.uk/

I am getting this vision from the non-existent chatroom ..... their soul (our soul) poster singing to TG ..... he quotes our posts to that chatroom as if they are as illiterate as him, and cannot read for themselves.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oL5QswYAWnA

NE , do you know whether the first generator is ordered? I don't.

They may have a 2Mw version on order or in the plans but what if flow rates support installing a bigger one?
I can imagine the hullabaloo on the chatrooms if they installed a 2Mw gennie and then published results showing the next size was an option. It wouldn't be as loud if they'd ordered a bigger one and there wasn't enough gas to run it until #5 was added to the mix
Beyond that, they have to decide how big the distribution network needs to be.

I bet they are working their arses off in preparation for these things. And if we are impatient, imagine how they feel.
And I reckon the govt feel it too - they could be on the way to a self sufficient electricity supply at half the price and greener energy - Botswana could be very proud of itself one day.

Being confident and not knowing the gas flow rate yet is where we are at, maybe.

Colm also stressed that we need equilibrium and that physical factors are responsible, in part, for the erratic flow rates.
I firmly believe from their podcasts that #4 is the stronger of the two wells and it was started a month after #3.
So the initial figures will be driven by #3 and , if I'm right, are overtaken #4, getting a balanced reading from the two is no easy? Now add the fact that erratic water flows on both is impacting upon the release of the gas at both wells and the conundrum is clear?

Imagine a very large frying pan on a gas hob with 4 burners of different sizes and young kids turning the switches randomly while you try to cook a load of sausages evenly! And having a table full of guests shouting through , are the bangers ready yet, we are hungry! I imagine that is how the bod feel with this barage of posts.
We'd deliver the the cooked sausages to the table whilst the others continue to fry - we'd be confident of all the sausages eventually getting there but when?

Come on guys, get real!

Colm clearly stated the position - currently the pump is running at between 100rpm and 200rpm, having been 300rpm at the peak of the water.

Once it is consistently below 100 rpm they can ask the engineers to measure and certify the flow rate but not until then

They could have an RNS every few hours , it would be like the Golden Shot , up a bit, down a bit, up a bit, down a bit ad nausea? Who'd want to see the alternating posts on here - we're gonna be rich and it's doomed I tell ye! And an sp up and down like a who's drawers?

olda - no RNS could be interpretted as meaning the water is still plentiful - promising/suggesting that ultimately there will be even more gas than anticipated.
An RNS now could show dewatering is complete (less than 100 rpm on the pump) and we will/have peaked earlier?

Ever the optimist ..... no news on that basis is good news? I once read that extended foreplay is essential for a good peak - increases anticipation perhaps :O)

Been watchind the Outlander ..... you can tell.

.... when my 9.4c had to disappear .... it came last night .... someone, not I said the rat , bought a few at 9.4c so the price was retained but is now owned by someone else.

Gerald, the Lambs Green refurb is complete , been there twice over Xmas period and it was good.
Little bit pricier nowadays - they have a refurb to pay for I guess - perhaps we'll be able afford to go after our next RNS :O)

Timothy Taylor Landlord was on draught, second time round. Should have asked if that was a guest ale - one of my favourites.

Agreed Chukkers, BDC looks very promising. $10M was available to Sekaname at some stage - but I cannot find the article to see what for. There was a list of causes they were funding or considering. Probably in their accounts?

If South Africa are as desperate for electricity as it appears, Botswana risk the whole shooting match becoming a South African project. Cannot see it happening tbh - why would Botswana want to produce electricity at $30 a unit from diesel when they can halve the price with CBM? It should be an interesting 6 months.