Member Info for BradSmith

My panic attack has cost me 21k TLOU shares worth £834 if I sold a few seconds ago in return for £1k in ARS?
I think I'll stop taking the tablets. Got another RNS coming ,Tlou? :O)

Whizzer , you made me £170 and knocked 6 months off my life no doubt :O(
This logical thinking thing I have is clearly not always useful. One little word "down" on the fluctuation was enough to change my mind on a company I believe in. My IG account gained 700 shares btw! Easter is coming and I am a happy bunny.

MM, I have two buys on X-O (who allow forward limit bids) so I thought my mobile would buzz at 8am if one or both went through.
One did (at 4p) t'other is pending , both at 4p limit.
I wanted that alarm to enter a buy on IG - I slept through it!
Went onto IG at 8:37ish saw the price was over 4p but used their QUOTE option and they are back in my good books! Went straight through at 3.99p

I referred to this QUOTE system last week when 4.692p was available for several days. Ultimately it was taken at exactly that price.

Feeling much happier this morning. If Colm is reading, Please accept my apologies from yesterday (I hadn't taken my anxiety pill, I still need them it seems).

ASX has closed with 10 trades at 8c and 8.1c ,slightly more sells than buys, but no drama at all.

IG has been good but I discovered last night that despite accepting a limit bid on a closed market , once you confirm it is rejected because the market is closed. I thought maybe once ASX closed it would accept a bid on AIM but no joy. Nobody measures up to the old TDW international brokers it seems.

IG goes into an auction phase before allowing trades so it'll be interesting to see when I can get a trade accepted (far less filled). Just have to be awake!

Price down from 8.6c to 8.1c but 4 buys outweigh 2 sells so no panic on ASX.

I should have got out of bed and washed my face for sure!
It was panic, brought on by Chris Fraser on SXX - selling up there was really painful - years of belief carpped on so my biggest hope for getting my money back was gone! Having 2 ways back felt OK but I really thought my last chance was gone this a.m..
I think everyone's fears that no news was bad news made this RNS relevant than it actually is.
Living alone isn't great, my missus would have woken me earlier :O)

I have just taken out a Roast Chicken dinner from the freezer, looked at the cooking instructions and it said NOT SUITABLE FOR FREEZING and I bought 3 of them! This is a memorable day ok!

Thanks for replying My1 , Whizz and Olda.

My1, I woke late this morning , checked my IG balance and saw it was down considerably more than ususal.
Then I saw the AIM price of TLOU whilst the ASX price looked fine and immediately twigged there must have a 7am RNS.
Full of trepidation. fearing the worst, I then read
"Since the initial rate announcement, gas flow rates have continued to fluctuate both up and down"
Fluctuation indicates up and down, we knew intermittent flows were excellent so that word down couple with initial rates struck me as flows were less than 20 mcfd! And I was expecting to hear over 100! My fears worsened.

The next paragraph then said
"The Company is operating in a region where commercial CBM had not been produced before so there is no comparable data from this operating environment regarding how long it may take, or if it is even possible, for a commercial gas flow to be achieved. "

"or if it is even possible etc" and I was shot!

Next I saw Whizzer's post and he'd sold up!
I posted my 10:11 post and went back to IG portfolio to see the price had dropped further.
TLOU was my hope to get back somewhere between £100k and £200k losses on the stock exchange and I was facing losing even more. I sold my 48.5k AIM shares on IG but I have lots more on ASX which I couldn't get to.

Went to my X-O account and the price had dropped again so it confirmed how I was feeling and I dumped my FTSE holding of near 500k shares by 10:18
Apart from a grand into ARS my money is intact and available if I decide I was too hasty, which upon studying the November and January RNS wording is a possibility. I still have near 400k on ASX at 8.6c until 11pm - I wonder how that is going to be.

I used *** as a delimiter at both ends of an extract to highlight it , and then decided to use "less than" and "greater than" to show start and finish.
I think LSE took it to be hypertext and deleted everything between the inner ones and left the outter ones.

tiring day to review it!

Hard to believe they need more pods just to dewater.
They have stated that the pumps were running at 300rpm initially and steady gas flows are unachievable until they get below 100 rpm.

Because coal fines can block the channels if water is pumped too vigorously they deliberately lowered the revs to between 100rpm and 200rpm. I think Colm said less than 100 rpm has been possible at times. But there was a lot of optimism in that podcast.

Unblocking the channels is clearly difficult or they'd have risked it? But it sounds easier, cheaper and much quicker than drilling new pods?

Dewatering #3 and #4 may well be partially dewatering future pods so I am comfortable with their policy on #3 and #4 if they are not write offs.

"Since the initial rate announcement, gas flow rates have continued to fluctuate both up and down with periodic short-term rates observed which have been much higher than those initially announced. " is the sentence that bothers me in the context of today's RNS. Previously I'd have assumed they meant fluctated up and down ABOVE initial rates. Today I read "much higher" but thought "not much lower?" but lower! Lower than 20 rang alarm bells but looking at whether the sentence was cut and pasted I found Nov 25th and today were worded differently. I'll be interested to see what happens on ASX tonight.
In November I was happy, today not, but there is precious little difference. Mentioning LOWER was a deliberate action. But have I read too much into it?

1. <<>>
The Company will not be in a position to announce an increased rate until such time that higher levels are sustained and confirmed by our advisors.
The Company is operating in a region where commercial CBM had not been produced before so there is no comparable data from this operating environment regarding how long it may take, or if it is even possible, for a commercial gas flow to be achieved. However, based on information to date, the Company has no reason to believe that the targeted commercial gas flow rates will not be achieved noting that the Company is generally pleased with well performance to date.

2. The Company previously announced initial gas flow rates of approximately 20 Mscfd (thousand standard cubic feet per day) from each of the Lesedi 3 and Lesedi 4 production pods.
<<>>
To date, the Company is very pleased with the performance of both wells.

Reading MM, I guess TLOU are changing the threshold for commercial rates.
I am unclear if we were targetting 2M or 10Mw , and therefore whether the interim PPA is looking at less than 2Mw or less than 10Mw? Below 2Mw would be terrible but if it is below 10Mw then not to bad at all. It would support the view that rates are higher than 20 mcfd after all.
Silence suggests the news would be poor but one man's poor is another man's rich?

Olda, I don't think the ship has a hole in it , far less sinking.
But I no longer expect it to be plain sailing within the timescale I envisaged.

Lesedi #3 and #4 are clearly not expected to flow by 31st Jan or they would have delayed the RNS beyond today.
So how long is it going to be? Will it ever flow properly?

If there was good news at Mamba, I feel it would have been the focus of the RNS but what did they do?
They drag in Solar! Boomslang being kept for future RNS I suppose?

It seems certain they will run out of money before Lesedi reaches operational flows so there will be a placing ( against everything TG wishes or has stated). Looking at the sp today I am encouraged that the price is 4p+. I sold one lot when it was in the 3.9s and I thought it was heading down 39 steps rather than up as it has? I got 4.07, 4.01 and 4.099 for my trades so not great.

I've put a grand into ARS and am up £7.99 on them. I'm expecting my broker to send me a greetings card to congratulate me on the change of colour.

My confidence in TLOU stemmed from my faith in TG. No faith no confidence. But those flows are still very possible and the price will treble if they do imho. I reserve my stake until there is evidence that Solar is not our future.

Couldn't find the words for you BTS, but you have been on my mind. I slept in this morning so it was gone 10am by the time I saw the RNS.
ASX was looking ok last night when I went to sleep. TLOU seem to have a tight ship in Australia or the price would have fallen.

I was watching the same things as you, and I did not see much to worry about, believing they were not being economic with the truth , which was a huge mistake now today's RNS is out.

I can only assume they thought that 633 squadron was going to suddenly open up the gas flows and keeping quiet on their worries that it was not flowing at all well could be hidden from us.

It is now a race to get the gas before they need another placing. Yesterday I'd have bet on the former, today I have bet on the latter. I sold up my AIM shares because I don't believe is staying in a broken marriage.

I am thinking of investing in Russian stocks - betting on finding an honest known crook rather than finding an honest director on AIM.

I don't like putting the boot in, especially whem someone is on the floor, but I agree Whizz.

My faith in TG is still there but somewhat diminished - I believe he tells the truth.
If he needs to tell an untruth he relies on Colm to do the dirty work for him maybe?

His judgement on this was poor - I'd have been much happier seeing the flow rates periodically, weekly or monthly. Showing us the high and low and the median or weighted average would allow us to decide for ourselves what the trend was. Instead, they gave us that effing word "soon" and allowed us to decide what it meant. Optimists, like me , days or weeks, and realists months or years.

RNS - does the R stand for ruinous? This one has ruined me at least.

Thanks Olda but I cannot share your optimism, faith is a very strong element in my investing.
I have sold over half my stock and the whole lot would have gone if ASX was open.

I was not a Colm fan in the early days, but warmed to him , more fool I.

The reason? If you read these paragraphs they do not even confirm the flow rates are above the initial 20 mcfd. Without that trust I reckon it is concievable they are up to 20mcfd lower (none) but have been over 40mcfd. My Systems Analysis training means I look at the logic behind the information most of the time. They need a crumb of comfort for this rns, so if the lowest reading was greater than 20mcfd , I think they would have told us. My hope was #4 was a strong well - they could have said #4 has reached x mcfd - but they did not. I am gutted.

I am considering Asiamet so I'll warn you now so you can get out of there before I apply my kiss of death.

Those 2 paras are ....

"The Company previously announced initial gas flow rates of approximately 20 Mscfd (thousand standard cubic feet per day) from each of Lesedi 3 and Lesedi 4. The Company is aiming for a minimum sustained gas flow rate in the region of 80-100 Mscfd from each production pod.

Since the initial rate announcement, gas flow rates have continued to fluctuate both up and down with periodic short-term rates observed which have been much higher than those initially announced. The Company will not be in a position to announce an increased rate until such time that higher levels are sustained and confirmed by our advisors. "

Fully understand your position Whizzer , the RNS is exactly what you predicted and totally opposite to what I expected.
I wish you good luck and hope we get a share of that luck one of these days. USOP's chief was Irish and was not be trusted, I am running out of nationalities to believe in. How many stocks do I need to buy to find an honest one?

Whizz , if we haven't achieved commercial flows this quarter far less 5 months , I'll be as concerned as you.

This project is basically hamstrung until we get commercial flows.

As soon as they come TLOU can move forward very quickly - the size of generator we need will be known so ordering that is a priority. And the PPA with Botswana can be thrashed out knowing the levels that we can suppy initially. With the PPA agreed BPC can be approached for financing the generator and distribution kits.

This is why I am relaxed .... I reckon all of that could be a short process because both sides have had the time to prepare for this. Tou will have a very good idea of the figures but are too canny to commit to them until they are certified. Botswana will be happy to wait for similar reasons, They don't want to announce they have bought an unachievable supply either. Or bought too little wth a bit of luck.

I won't judge the board until the gas flows are certified and I have said that for months.

Chuck, I'm going back to the days I first heard of TLOU so not a chance of rememembering what I actually saw.
As you say it looks more likely it was referring to shares he owns rather than the amount he invested.

Looked this up, it supports your opinion unless he paid over a dollar/pound for them.
Sounds like a newspaper quote tbh.

Anthony Gilby Group* 21,989,580 4.88%
Issued Share Capital 450,180,185
The number of shares which are not in public hands (representing the Director’s holdings) is 28,873,743 shares equivalent to 6.41% of the Company’s issued share capital.
*These shares are held across a number of different entities under the control of Mr. Anthony Gilby.
This information was last updated on 1 January 2020.

How many times have I repeated this and provided links to back my belief?

"in 2018 q4 the update stated that they were in talks with other parties with regards to off take deals"

Nov25th 2019 states
"Over the past few months, the Company has been concentrating on three key issues required to advance the Lesedi gas-to-power project into production:

1. Lateral well dewatering and gas flow rates;
2. Agreeing a Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) with the Government of Botswana;
3. Securing project finance to produce power and connect to the grid. "

This link is from Dec12th 2018 and Botswana is mentioned around 4m in and beyond as PLAN A!
Plans b,c etc are if Botswana is unacceptable or non-existent - there cannot be any doubt now that several other countries would bite our hand off to get the power we aim to supply. Imho TLOU are using that threat to 1. make Botswana treat this as urgent and 2. to consider paying sensible prices - both in all our interests.

Tlou have consistently stated we don't want to agree prices now when they are almost certain to rise in future. That decision earns their corn and our future dividends imo.

Here is the link ...
.... TG initially states the position of the company so new/potential investors hearing him for the first time are fully informed. Us old timers have heard it many times but , again , I think it shows we have a man in charge who sees the world as it is.

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/311589/tlou-energy-s-tony-gilby-updates-on-lesedi-drilling-and-request-for-proposal-11589.html

If CF is buying up all the shares because the true bid is much higher, it would not surprise me.
He was not a doorman for nothing .... he must have learnt a lot from those days ....

I think I have learned a lesson. Don't put your faith in financiers! Fox at HMV, CF, Williams at Avanti all financiers and all liars.

Tony Gilby at Tlou is a petrol and gas expert .... so fingers crossed he is as honest as I believe he is.

Whizzer let me introduce you to the filter button ..... I am clearly suitable for your list.
If you stop moaning about me you can cut and paste your other post .... nothing new or thought provoking just rubbish about how much the boards are being paid.

I read TG put 28M of his own money into TLOU , what he is taking out is peanuts to that. Filter me now and shut the f up.

You have no idea of how hard the bod works, or how effective that work is.
We don't know what you do for a living - would you like posters to hyposthesise on you as you do on TLOU directors who imho are bring home the bacon for us at a cost that is looking after us pis in a very welcome manner.

Your last words from me ...... f me!

Forget it folk(s) the order of my portfolio has changed and it is USOP, another dormant stock, on a weird exchange that 12.5p.
I have done well, spread your investments was the advice years ago.

I invested in HMV (died), USOP, AVN (effectively dormant ), SXX (possibly selling at a lousy price - so I have sold up near that price (which could be higher than the final price as a warning) and have one left. Losing on that one but only a few pennies per share, TLOU. I live in hopes it or my dormant companies come good. An Englishman, an Irishman, a Welshman and an English/Aussie were my downfall. All dreamers but wrote a good book which fooled me.
UK birth is the common factor! The cycle will end with a pure bred Aussie I hope.

GLA, I hope Kyle's book is not on the the fictional shelf with Under Milk Wood.