Member Info for BradSmith

We are clearly doomed if there is no ready market!
Shortages everywhere in the southern region of Africa, Eskom in trouble and struggling to survive far less expand production, increasing demand expected for many years? Diesel power costing a fortune to replace Eskom's shortfall, dirty energy, and there is no ready market?

$30 per unit costs with diesel , TLOU hoping for more than $12 per unit - the ready market has been there for years!

OB, We can agree you said this ....

"1st thing to know is that the SAPP consists of 12 member countries for whom their individual electricity-markets look very similiar. The markets are all heavily regulated and typically have only one buyer of electricity - this being the national utilities such as Eskom SA), BPC (Botswana), ZESCO (Zambia), etc. "

BPC, Botswana, is opening its doors to IPPS , in fact they invited them to the party - a party whose date is yet to be decided upon.

Your info on ZESCO (Zambia) is out of date! Take a look at the IPP on this image!
One day there will be one for TLOU as well as BPC.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1BXOpqnzFvrQxfxId06_jmN8uzHxbJhGt/view?usp=sharing

I have just spent ages deleting my whole filter list , and with a few exceptions I couldn't remember why they were filtered or even which stock they posted on.

In the new mood of pc on here, well done MM on leading the way , I think Moagi needs to re-examine his point and take it one stage further.

i.e. "My point is - Tlou started talking about connecting to SAPP in 2017 and implied that they could connect to the grid then and sell power unrestricted. That was not the case then; it still isn’t the case now - although in time to come, given the reasonably recent changes in Govt and Ministry personnel, this market will open up (with profound changes to ie unbundling of BPC). "

What he needs to consider should change his conclusion into my conclusion using his own words above.

In 2017 , and in 2021 , TLOU are talking about power they do not have yet.
So they are also talking about the future, and the his disingenuity argument evaporates .

Why did I not simply ask for assistance in putting down George and Mildred - would have saved me hours or days! I felt like the Lone Ranger until today, and now it's changed to the Magnificent Seven. Thank you guys (even if you weren't doing it for me), the hole in the wall gang have finally got their come, uppance!

Time to start my spring clean.

Between us we may have answered Whizzer's query on the funding/placing timing.
The placing and funding most certainly addressed Lesedi to Serowe, both are now on the horizon and will be tapped this year (hopefully).

Orapa is another story - it can be considered a separate entity - Mamba to Orapa (gas) pipeline!
It strikes me that Orapa could fund this and it could be organised independently of Lesedi power (cbm/solar). I wonder if Orapa actually own much of the plant needed to open Mamba!
I'm getting carried away here - just suppose that the Orapa/Tlou liaison was always on the cards going back to TG's decision on Botswana - it makes sense to me!

Has Lesedi been an audition involving Orapa, the Govt and Tlou? An audition that is intended to have a future in the West End of course - not a scam but a parallel business and ultimately the main business! (Unless 90MW is just an audition at Orapa for bigger things).

There's a book in this fantasy.

Thanks DTE, we both know you are right but in winding me up they are misleading new investors whom we need for the sp to rise. If I knew everyone thought as you do I'd have been content to drop it (as I hope now). But I am anxious that I am in turn misleading people inadvertently, so I need feedback on whether I am missing something in my very few assertions.

And they imply TG is not telling us the whole/correct story - and that really galls me!

On MM's post, the close date for tenders only means future tenders won't be accepted.
Yesterday I might have agreed with MM suggestion/question on the PPA.

Today's post at 9:38 possibly denies that idea imho

"Independent Power Producers (IPPs) or non-utility generator (NUG) are private entities (under unbundled market), which own and or operate facilities to generate electricity and then sell it to a utility, central government buyer and end users."

Orapa is a utility, and we'd be supplying gas not electricity, so I am unconvinced the PPA is relevant to this tender.

LSE are doing weird things again with posts missing.
I used my search engine to try and find TG talking about selling to SAPP countries with no success.
In so doing, I was reminded that during the RFP procedure there was a general election too!

OB, from memory, asked why in the last 5 years we did not sell to Sapp countries? This is reminscent of Donkey asking me to prove that TG spent time and money choosing which country was best for CBM outside Australia! Everything needs to be spelled out to tose indivials/aleter-egos!
How many times have I said a large PPA was never wanted by tlou - they ALWAYS siad they'd build build the business from the roots upwards to keep capex down (reinvesting earnings).
Apart from that, all we had to sell was Selemo power and we are making good use of that ourselves without the cost of poles/wires over 100Km.

What I did find was a post from me in 2018 that quotes IPPS, we never seemed to offer proof by link in those days (pre-moagi perhaps!). It was an advert for experts to appraise the preferred bidders , presumably from local newspapers.

I'm putting this to bed, OB is back on filter, I think it belies the tom-fool's idea of BPC being the only game in town! Sorry Tom Covid a poster I respected many years back on here - long gone under that name.

"BradSmith
Posted in: TLOU
Posts: 4,540
Price: 5.75
No Opinion
RE: 2 CBM tenders for 100Mw Saturday 30 Jun 2018 12:04
Tender offers are invited for the provision of Owner’s Engineer for the development of a maximum of 100MW of Coal Bed Methane (CMB) fueled pilot power plants in Botswana by Independent Power Producers (IPP).

Tender offers are invited for the procurement of Transactional Support for the development of a maximum of 100MW of Coal Bed Methane (CBM) fueled pilot power plants in Botswana by Independent Power Producers (IPP).

+++++
---------

Independent Power Producers (IPPs) or non-utility generator (NUG) are private entities (under unbundled market), which own and or operate facilities to generate electricity and then sell it to a utility, central government buyer and end users. IPPs may be privately-held facilities, cooperatives or non -energy industrial concerns capable of feeding excess energy into the system.[1] [2]

IPPs invest in generation technologies and recover their cost from the sale of the electricity. They can be great help to country's energy sector (especially when the public sector do not have the required financial capacity for investment).

----------

The above looks more like an advert for an engineer in the first instant, and lord knows what in the other?"

Moagi rubs his bottle and out pops his genie!

The link appears quite useless amounting to a maroon map of southern africa.
The genie simply has to be moagi in a different pantomime part, surely.
They have identical blinkers , 360 degrees!

Read this, research TG and find TG's early mission statement that escapes me, open your eyes and brain!

"SAPP commissioned new generation capacity amounting to as follows: ? A total capacity equivalent to 4,180 MW was commissioned in 2016. The projects were commissioned by both Public Utilities and Independent Power Producers (IPPs). ? Independent Power Producers (IPPs) contributed 54% (2,236 MW) of the new generation capacity in 2016."

Can someone sit the genie on your knee, and read that to it one word at a time please?
On page 17 , 8 countries are listed with IPPS ,
Zimbabwe, Angola, South Africa, Malawi, Zambia, Tanzania, Namibia, and Mozambique.

Botswana expect to have a new IPP soon called TLOU , with a boss who has floated 2 previous CBM companies - if he says it possible , and 8 countries have managed it already, why would I believe a word that you have to say that contradicts that????

Posters can judge which of us provides the better links once the look at page 17 of mine.

www.sapp.co.zw/sites/default/files/SAPP.pdf

"The Company plans to sell power to potential customers, either on the 'spot market' OR through Power Purchase Agreements (PPA) with one or more customers. Sale of power is planned to be through the Botswana power grid which facilitates the sale of power within Botswana and regionally via the SAPP. "

The link supports my understanding of what TLOU said in the early days,WE ARE NOT DEPENDENT ON BOTSWANA BUYING OUR POWER!, hence my insistence the PPA is not as important as described by others! They also said NO PPA MEANS THEY CAN TAKE ADVANTAGE OF PREVAILING PRICES (which are expected to rise with time).

https://www.energy-pedia.com/news/botswana/tlou-energy-provides-update-on-the-lesedi-cbm-project-174643

I've put off the spring cleaning long enough - the real reason for my many posts!
Parkinson's Law is , in fact, laziness to some degree.

I remember that TV programme.

Good to see an unfiltered message on here Whizzer.
Hopefully they'll stop soon because everybody must be sick of their repetitive nonsense with nothing new whilst ignoring alternative logic.
There isn't enough history to match or unmatch OB and Moagi , both very recent additions to our numbers here , but think they are the major contributors who are qualified to speak for us all.

The fact that moagi can tell us OB will respond to me tells me a lot!
There are very few explanations of that.

If either of them casts sensible doubts instead of repeatedly twaddling on about how even the preferred bidders must be even to gain that status, OR how we need a PPA despite messages from the Govt saying our 2MW is being processed and they back CBM etc etc etc , please let me know! They never say where I am wrong - imho because I am not!

Donkey even claims to knows more about how Govt works than TLOU do? You cannot make it up - with ex-Minister GG on the board! Was he employed because he does not know how Govt works?

Will the Govt issue a PPA to us for 2MW without supplying one for t'others or reneging on their preferred bidder status? Are the letters of intent enough to get funding from Govt or elsewhere?
I'd expect a few different opinions on that.

Whizzer, do you know what the current lockdowns are in Botswana? Genuine question, I don't know, but it is very pertinent to resuming drilling etc.. I'm more hopeful of getting info on the poles and wires first.

Poppy treats and beer time!

This is the most I can see of your and OB (live feed) postings now my filters are 100% on!

oldballlie,TLOU,14 May 2021 18:41 oldballlieJLOU,13 May 2021 15:39 oldballlie,TLOU,13 May 2021 11:06 oldballlie,TLOU,13 May 2021 06:41 oldballlie,TLOU,12 May 2021 13:20 oldballlieJLOU,12 May 2021 11:07 oldballlie,TLOU,11 May 2021 16:21 oldballlie,TLOU,07 May 2021 11:57 oldballlie,TLOU,07 May 2021 11:50 oldballlie,TLOU,17 Apr 2021 12:12 oldballlie,TLOU,16 Apr 2021 13:33 oldballlie,TLOU,16 Apr 2021 13:19 oldballlie,TLOU,16 Apr 2021 13:14 oldballlie,TLOU,16 Apr 2021 10:45 oldballlie,TLOU,16 Apr 2021 10:19 oldballlie,TLOU,31 Mar 2021 09:22 oldballlie,TLOU,31 Mar 2021 09:12 oldballlie,TLOU,30 Mar 2021 16:44 oldballlie,TLOU,30 Mar 2021 16:33 oldballlie,TLOU,30 Mar 2021 11:27

https://www.mmegi.bw/index.php?aid=88447&dir=2021/january/22

is the source for my quotes.

I'm no listen if you are talking to me.

What a goal in the dying seconds of the Liverpool game.
Won't say ought in case someone has recorded it for later!

It occurs to me that having 2 preferred bidders could be the whole problem in Botswana.
I hope I have demonstrated how Sekaname are in no position to agree a PPA , and we have expected TLOU to get the interim 2MW PPA forever (it feels like forever).

If our 2MW PPA was issued back in 2020 as we hoped , what on earth would preferred bidder mean to Sekaname? Second choice preferred bidder? If there is deadly embrace over the 97MW , BG might have to accept they have hobson's choice instead of awarding joint preferred status to two bodies so there is competition (as I've always thought) on prices. TG isn't going to bend them over a barrel imho, he knows there is a good margin for TLOU well below the price range of diesel and importated power, and much greater than he'd have achieved in Australia!

And that was the attraction of Botswana!



!

TLOU have the Selemo project to use a guide on the extraction and generation costs.
They will soon know the costsof substations and Tx wires.
They still have to sort out funding costs but on the upper figure of $30M they can certainly get fairly close to a figure.

Sekaname, however, are in a chicken and egg position. They need a PPA in which they have to agree a tariff. A tariff based on unknown funding costs on an unknown capex and no experience of bringing a CBM power facility in Botswana to fruition. Add the costs of substations , pylons etc to those unknowns plus how much water there might be to dewater and they are so far adrift of TG's strategy I don't think they are credible!

The summation in my link possibly backs that view, unless the author has been talking to George and Mildred in a Gaberone bar , with this .....

"The 100MW CBM tender dates back to July 2016, when the government again shortlisted both Tlou Energy and KEB, before suspending the process. At the time, government was willing to split the tender 50/50 for the joint provision of 100MW.

While the upcoming negotiations could result in a winner takes all, the wording of the specifications required by the Public Procurement and Asset Disposal Board (PPADB) is unclear.

The May 7, 2019, PPADB statement naming Tlou and KEB as preferential bidders refers to the “development of CBM-fuelled pilot power plants,” suggesting a split could be possible."

Time for a song https://youtu.be/iyIOl-s7JTU

https://www.mmegi.bw/index.php?aid=88447&dir=2021/january/22

is the source for my quotes.

Buffer filled, continued...

"The letter of commitment by government is critical for both bidders and their shareholders after the CBM tender was disrupted some years ago due to procedural hiccups in the ministry."

We have that ..... a PPA is a cherry on the icing!!!
KE need a PPA as a table, before the table cloth, and plate are remotely ready to take the basic cake!

OB and Moagi are singing from the same hymn sheet - can't believe they are not one and the same person - unless they are are husband and wife?

Whizzer is not filtered, but when he was I used to log out to see if he had posted - and whether he had snapped out of his obsession with how long it takes to build Rome.
As a consequence I'd see all posts.

To see filtered messages , simple click on any unfiltered person's username/history, and in the URL change the name to , say, Whizzer and you by-pass his filter!

Moagi's final post is priceless!
I think he was being clever in his own head, by what is to stop a taxi driver applying for tender forms and sending them in? Application fees may apply , bit like like running for Parliament, but you would need the 150 signatures !

Preferred bidders status would not be automatic , and the two were accepted with this being reported ....

"Both Tlou Energy and Kalahari Energy Botswana were named government’s preferred bidders for the pioneering project in 2019, meaning negotiations would then be hammered out towards a Power Purchase Agreement and spades in the ground.

Tlou Energy and Kalahari Energy Botswana (KEB) are both sitting on trillions of cubic feet of gas reserves in the Central District and are at different, although advanced, stages of progressing the country’s first-ever extraction of CBM for national grid use.

Although many factors will be considered, one major determinant will be the final tariff being offered by the bidders.

On Tuesday, Tlou Energy managing director Tony Gilby said the Company had received written confirmation from the ministry of government intention to ‘fast-track’ CBM development in the country.

“MMGE also stated that it is ‘happy to provide the necessary support to ensure commercial development of CBM,’” Gilby told investors. “The company welcomes this update and looks forward to negotiation and finalisation of the tender process in the near term.”

Gilby said government’s letter to the preferred bidders also stressed its 'full commitment' to seeing the project come to fruition “as it will promote the gas industry, contribute toward import substitution, as well as to improve the livelihood of Batswana”.

The letter of commitment by government is critical for both bidders and their shareholders after the CBM tender was disrupted some years ago due
to procedural hiccups in the ministry."

It is only 2 years since that announcement - so that pesky RPF procedure took much longer than I recall! Sirius planning permission in a National Park suffered badly at the same stage! I know how to pick them?

There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that the musky queers are treating the preferred bidders identically!
The sauce for the goose (KE) is a guarantee that 97MW will produce long term security by means of a PPA because the funds required are massive!!!! and won't be forthcoming without that guarantee!

Sauce for the gander (TLOU) - a piddly $10M or $30M is needed to fund 2MW or 10MW once a PPA is signed. IMHO, TG wanted funding agreed for decades with BG but is now flexible!

I cannot take your call at the moment! Press the hash key and go and get stoned!

The alter-egos , don't exist afaiac from now, I don't suffer fools gladly!
Alto-ego was going to lead to a joke about soap operas , but I got distracted!

TG is guilty of under-estimating the pitfalls that have beset us, but this quote from the KE cutting shows he was not alone!
“An estimate of 20 months is given for possible economic extraction of gas, provided there is a committed consumer ready to use the gas,” he said."

If 20 months was thought to be long enough to produce gas for 97MW , I'd commend TG on not getting too carried away on his timings for up to 10Mw! If the guy was qualified to state what he did, I now wonder just how quickly Orapa gas could be produced given a following wind and no tidal waves? 2025 is a Govt target date for a successful CBM industry ..... it looks extremely possible to me.

“An estimate of 20 months is given for possible economic extraction of gas, provided there is a committed consumer ready to use the gas,” he said.