Q3 Group Production of 30-34koz23 Aug 2024 12:27
The most recent and up to date quarterly run rate figures we have to hand:
Yanfolila Q2 - 12,065 ounces
Kouroussa post quarter - 15,600 ounces (based on an average 1,200 ounces per week through July)
Assuming Kouroussa production plateaus at 4,800 per month, contrary to guidance and ignoring the clear indications it’s ramping up towards the 8-10,000 ounce level and assuming Yanfolila repeats the worst performance on record despite assurances that production will be significantly improved this quarter then we are at a base case quarterly run rate of roughly 27,500 ounces now, the highest group production since 2022.
However 27,500 ounces in Q3 would be a disappointing result given second half group production guidance estimates 65,000 - 95,000 ounces. I would envisage Q4 weighting higher as we were still ramping up Kouroussa from 1,200 ounces per week to the target 2,000 ounces per week and changes at Yanfolila are expected through this quarter as it transitions to higher grade mill throughput.
Q3 company guidance split estimate
· Yanfolila: 16,000 - 18,000 oz
· Kouroussa: 16,000 - 22,000
Q3 average sale price estimate: $2,200
Previously I shared a couple of scenarios using figures that are more conservative even than the company’s low end guidance, using an absolute base case for Q3 group production of 30,000 ounces, which generates about $13 million after AISC (gold sales at $2,200/oz) and my upper estimate this quarter of 34,000 ounces which generates almost $22m after AISC.
Kouroussa is the unknown however and could now easily overshoot my
conservative figures and achieve middle of the range company guidance by year end!
The company expect Kouroussa’s to be at a quarterly run rate of 25-30koz by end of September! I’d be happy with 21koz by end of September and so would I think the market. Expecting group cashflow positive and net debt down all other things being equal.