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What our resident derampers won’t focus on is the rate of production growth through June and in particular post quarter in July.

Kouroussa production will be double what they achieved in quarter two.

Yanfolila we know should be at least 25% higher using a conservative approach and going on the base case revised guidance.

That’s a combined 30,000 ounces production this quarter. Both mines cash-flow positive and Kouroussa in particular generating margins of $1,000/oz +

Talk of running out of cash under these circumstances is simply rubbish when it’s expected some debt repayments will be deferred under refinancing terms.

Group production was always H2 weighted and this was even more so following Corica’s walkout. Now we know production is ramping up at Kouroussa which should be producing at 120,000 ounce run rate in 2025. Even 100,000 ounces at 1,000/oz margin next year is 100 million gross cash coming from Kouroussa.

Most holders will be all too aware of the risks in particular missed forecasts with Kouroussa. The figures for July are the most up to date progress we have to go on and 4,800 ounces in the first month bodes well for the remainder of this quarter.

Yanfolila isn’t likely to repeat the dismal performance of Q2. It produced more than 18,000 ounces this time last year during the rainy season. The issue faced last quarter are known and being addressed as outlined in the interview. Yanfolila can produce 15,000 ounces this quarter and still remain profitable after all costs and the hedge in place.

We will see soon enough how expensive the deferred loan repayments turn out to be. It may mean further hedging below spot but then it shouldn’t be nearly as low as the $2,100 hedges previously agreed.

The cash and gold held will be up significantly this quarter, so we could well be looking at net debt falling by 10-$15 million this quarter after all group costs are accounted. The margins on Kouroussa production could go even further!

Deramping gang putting in a busy shift today. Must live such fulfilling lives to spend their spare time endlessly posting about a stock they don’t own and wish to go under

Thanks for your reply RetiredBanker, good to read your expectations with regards to the half year financials. While the operational successes in the first half have already been fed to the market, how this translates to the financial performance will hopefully resonate with the market also. Revenue and EBITDA should benefit from better looking forward guidance courtesy of the gold price. The share price performance has been standout, although trading lows probably should be considered as an anomaly rather than a fair base. Might take another quarter of gold at $2,500 to break this years high but I’m sure it’s coming :)

Reuters report Iran poised to strike as Hamas refuse to attend ceasefire talks. US making a lot of noise about sending a missile guided submarine to the region, if that doesn’t deter Iran what will?

“Three senior Iranian officials have said that only a ceasefire deal in Gaza would hold Iran back from direct retaliation against Israel”

Hezbollah, Islamic Jihad and the Yemeni Houthi Islamists look set upon their own direct response so why would Iran not follow suit?

@RetiredBanker that’s fair enough. From what I’ve found looking back there are plenty of quarters where Yanfolila did achieve lower guidance comfortably including first quarter this year (accounting for H2 weighted production). Most holders will be all too aware of the risks in particular missed forecasts with Kouroussa. The figures for July are the most up to date progress we have to go on and 4,800 ounces in the first month bodes well for the remainder of this quarter. Yanfolila isn’t likely to repeat the dismal performance of Q2 either if the issues they faced and identified in the update, explained further in the interview, are now being addressed. A lot of things could go wrong, that’s why the price is on its knees and offers considerable turnaround value should both operations begin to meet low end guidance. Do you think the market would react positively to group production of 30,000 ounces this quarter on the back of expected Coris bank refinancing?

Good find Bushy! Right at the lower end of financing terms as well

Last year the third quarter production at Yanfolila wasn’t a washout and although I wasn’t holding then I’d imagine the non holders who frequent this board raised the same concerns. Seasonal rainfall has impacted Hummingbird’s third quarter operations in the past but not always as last year’s results show:

Yanfolila production in Q3 2023 was 18,399 ounces at AISC $1,651/oz

Very nice set of quarterlies with management achieving their corporate finance rebalancing. Majid notes we are essentially debt free on these new loan terms!

Production guidance and dividend intact.

Incredible buying opportunity if Iran bottles it!

Paving the way for a Fed rate cut next month with any luck!!

My reading of the data and the analysis around it is that the news was marginally better. PPI missed its 0.2% forecast, slower than anticipated

The presentation lists Coris as the main loan provider charging interest of 11% - not that this proves anything definitively. I’ve seen mining loans and bond coupons range from 7% up and over the amount mentioned. Either way the amount of interest Hummingbird will be required to pay will form part of the due diligence when assessing the affordability of the loan refinancing

Playboy given your professed understanding and knowledge of the mining schedule you must admit the Kouroussa has turned a corner since Corica returned to the mine in late May. First quarter and previous quarters ramp up aside, the rate of production since late May is the light in the dark many appear to be overlooking.

Simplyme completely agree and your Yanfolila figures are even more conservative than I would have used!

Should say: A rough estimate for the next 12 months assuming Kouroussa runs at a conservative 16,000 ounces in Q3 and 20,000 in Q4 generates $40-50 million in the second half of this year after AISC. Compare that with the 14,000 ounces in the whole of the first half which almost certainly at a net loss. And looking ahead to H1 2025 let’s say there are issues and they only maintain 20,000 ounces quarterly production instead of the projected 30,000 ounces, the operation will still be profitable and generate some $45 million in the first half of 2025 using a $1,250 AISC (as opposed to $1,000 AISC projected). Roughly speaking $90-100 million positive cash flow after AISC in the next 12 months at Kouroussa on the assumption they hit base case 2024 guidance and end up reducing expectations in the first half of 2025.

Tony much depends on the refinancing terms expected in the next week or two. Even a conservative extension to mid 2025 on $40m due later this year would provide sufficient head room for the company to rebuild its depleted cash when accounting for the projected guidance for this half (which we are already six weeks into) and beyond.

A rough estimate for the next 12 months assuming Kouroussa runs at a conservative 16,000 ounces in Q3 and 20,000 in Q4 generates $40-50 million after AISC. Compared that with the 14,000 ounces in the whole of the first half which almost certainly at a net loss. And looking ahead to H1 2025 let’s say there are issues and they only maintain 20,000 ounces quarterly production instead of the projected 30,000 ounces, the operation will still be profitable and generative some $45 million using a $1,250 AISC (as opposed to $1,000 AISC projected)

Dan has it all to prove in terms of meeting the lower end of guidance but 50,000 ounces at Kouroussa is less of a concern than Yanfolila imho

In your calculations you mentioned in the event Centamin “only meet the lower production figure of 470,000 then they have to sell another 261,000 Oz in H2” the way to assess this is with production figures.

In this case 470,000 FY lower end guidance with 225,000 already achieved in the first half leaves 245,000 ounces as the company’s base case estimate in the second half. Sales may be more or less depending on the timing within the reporting period.

@Paul yes more or less.

Just a couple things

1) gold today is above $2,450 so it’s looking very likely now that Centamin achieve the average estimate of $2,400 mentioned

2) production and sale of ore should be carefully considered separately, I think you may have treated them as the same a few times there. The guidance is for ounces poured I believe. Sales in H2 should benefit from the increased ore held at the end of period (perhaps just a timing of sales).

I’m summary $270-300 million gross proceeds after costs looks reasonable given the outlook and forward guidance comments

Bushy apologies that second paragraph was an error. I was on the fly while answering another users post and had copied their post into the chat box.

Six month lows paint a picture of the regional and security risks, evidently the stakes increased with the recent bombings and now the US along with NATO allies increasing their naval presence in the Middle East. I don’t remember it being this tense in a long time.