Member Info for BPat890

The courts have in the past ordered bulletin board operators like LSE to disclose the names and details of those behind defamatory postings of a publicly listed company.

The offer is being put to shareholders regardless of where the share price trades at but if you’re able to sell your stock for more than the offer price the offer should fail. It’s up to GTE or a third party to come back to i3E with an improved offer if they want to secure shareholder backing

@justfencing - that happened recently when Shanta Gold were under offer. The price steadily increased to the offer price and went above when it became clear holders would rather buy stock at the offer price than accept the deal. It helped that institutional buying was behind some of this as we could see their holdings rise with every major shareholder notification.

LSE admin ought to take a look at what is happening on this thread. We have at least 4 user IDs posting the same tripe every day without fail, late into the night and on weekends too!

Each user ID has in no uncertain terms directed investors to sell or avoid, announced they do not hold and would never buy and want the company back to fail. The contents of some of these posts is borderline defamatory as they have stepped up their campaign of misinformation recently.

Nobody in their right mind believes the Good Samaritan facade to “warn investors of the pitfalls” etc there is clearly a lot of reading up and reposting of content from the updates happening, which is rather ironic when they claim the figures are all lies and fantasy.

They are here to buy up cheap stock from fearful investors. It’s that simple. The company turned a corner recently in its efforts to bring Kouroussa to profitable production and with the 1:2 weighting geared to the second half of the year there will be a significant windfall coming in the next two quarters and beyond.

While LSE admin don’t appear too bothered it may be worth emailing screenshots of the offending posts to the company to provide them the opportunity to take legal action

@nomadicinvestor - thank you for your reply earlier! I must have missed that, so they have a fair way to go to achieve the 75% and judging by the reaction here today the market seems less than convinced this will achieve shareholder approval.

Good to read so many informative posts here surrounding the ludicrous decision by management to switch tack and recommend this hostile approach.

As with Shanta Golds initial offer through a similar scheme being rejected first time around and later receiving a higher offer I’d implore holders to vote down this offer.

@teo1 - as a non holder I’m not sure why you’re so concerned but for the sake of transparency and to answer your loaded query:

Regarding the average mill feed grade the company announced in Q1 that low grades were already forecast: “continuing the trend anticipated by the mine plan for lower grade ore for the duration of 2024” so it’s disingenuous to imply the trend is not already built into forecasts.

Regarding the blip in Q2 you can find the reason in the update and how the expected increase in ore mining volumes will “significantly improve throughput grades and consequently production”. This quarter an average mill feed of circa 1.5g/t would suffice but I’m sure you’ll disagree.

Yanfolila production and attributed AISC last quarter was a blip in the mine’s recent performance.

They previously experienced a loss making period at Yanfolila in 2021-22 and quickly stabilised the situation returning the mine to being cashflow positive, helping in part to fund Kouroussa’s construction and development which is now finally achieving a level of profitable performance (+15koz quarterly run rate as of July).

Yanfolila production in 2024 was always anticipated to be second half weighted and maintained after Q1 results inferring production in each of Q3 and Q4 will be higher than first quarter output of around 17,000 ounces. Following Q2 results the company announced reasons why performance was an anomaly and how they would quickly return Yanfolila to output more in line with previous quarters, all of which are profitable given average sales will generate at least $2,200/oz and more if output is towards the upper level of guidance.

The average gold sales price achieved has fluctuated more than $400/oz in the past 3 years and would have been higher recently but for hedges, which are soon to come off. Without the hedges from second half of next year a further $200-250/oz will be unlocked, potentially more with the price of gold breaking new record highs almost daily this month!

Q2 2021

Yanfolila produced 24,494 ounces at AISC $1,386/oz.

Average realised price of $1,802/oz.

Q3 2021

Yanfolila produced 22,102 ounces at AISC $1,520/oz.

Average realised price of $1,782/oz.

Q4 2021

Yanfolila produced 18,181 ounces at AISC $1,803/oz.

Average realised price of $1,782/oz

Q1 2022

Yanfolila produced 15,548 ounces at AISC $2,235/oz.

Average realised price of $1,837/oz.

Q2 2022

Yanfolila produced 20,013 ounces at AISC $1,859/oz.

Average realised price of $1,851/oz.

Q3 2022

Yanfolila produced 16,827 ounces at AISC $2,161/oz.

Average realised price of $1,713/oz.

Q4 2022

Yanfolila produced 28,264 ounces at AISC $1,248/oz.

Average realised price of $1,726/oz.

Q1 2023

Yanfolila produced 27,262 ounces at AISC $1,109/oz.

Average realised price of $1,878/oz.

Q2 2024

Yanfolila produced 23,885 ounces at AISC $1,234/oz.

Average realised price of $1,981/oz.

Q3 2023

Yanfolila produced 18,399 ounces at AISC $1,651/oz.

Average realised price of $1,918/oz.

Q4 2023

Yanfolila produced 14,419 ounces at AISC $1,701/oz.

Average realised price of $1,946/oz.

Q1 2024

Yanfolila produced 16,999 ounces at AISC $1,616/oz.

Average realised price of $2,030/oz.

Q2 2024

Yanfolila produced 12,065 ounces at AISC $2,598/oz.

Average realised price of $2,075/oz.

Q3 2024 (estimate)

Yanfolila produces 16,000 ounces at AISC $1,800/oz.

Average realised price of $2,200/oz.

Q4 2024 (estimate)

Yanfolila produces 20,000 ounces at AISC $1,500/oz.

Average realised price of $2,300/oz.

Live price $2,521/oz even! Just how much will the average gold sales be this quarter given Resolute sell unhedged now? Gold likely to continue rising in the wake of imminent US rate cuts to help stabilise flagging economic data and China resuming purchases of foreign gold to diversify away from the US dollar.

$2,500/oz back in play again :)

It is bizarre when you think about the value of those reserves and the rising margins attributed to EBIT. With a major like Fresnillo you would think it would be a first mover like Centamin and Hochschild.

Well said! Do we know what percentage of unconditional support they have secured already?

Gold futures just made another all time high - $2,563/oz!

@panda - “I think we'll see a much improved performance at Yanfolila over the coming quarters.

In Q2 production was low and AISC very high because they decided to bring the Gonka open pit into production earlier than originally planned as they want to take advantage of the high gold price and pay debt off as quickly as possible.

To meet the lower end of the revised guidance at Yanfolila the mine will need to average 18,000 Oz per quarter in Q3 & Q4. The higher production will also reduce the AISC significantly to somewhere in the region of $1300 to $1400 which will compensate for the higher AISC in Q2 which incorporated the cost of stripping the overburden at Gonka.”

I agree there is a good chance Yanfolila exceeds the upper case I laid out yesterday. I’m not sure how quickly they will have ramped up production this quarter as we didn’t get an indication of post quarter output, so I’ve weighted higher Yanfolila production into my Q4 estimates. While they managed more than 18koz in Q3 this time last year I’ve deliberately underestimated lower forecast guidance.

Shanta Gold was taken out in similar hostile conditions however investors voter down the initial offer and forced the buyer to come back with a better offer! I’ll be voting against this offer. In any event the market now understands what ‘fair value’ our peers place on I3e’s producing assets. We have been priced too low for far too long but now market participants have had a shot in the arm. The shares are worth at least 14p and more interest should follow! Institutional buying will build between now and the vote if this plays out anything like the hostile approach made for Shanta Gold. Hold onto your shares people!!

Based on Gran Tierra’s $8.66 closing price on 16 August 2024, the deal values i3 Energy at £174.1 million or 13.92p per share.

That represents a 49% premium to i3 Energy’s closing price on the same date and shareholders will also receive a cash dividend of 0.2565p for the three months ending 30 September 2024.

Well those figures aren’t based on reality but then your agenda here isn’t to add balance..

The company is already at a quarterly run rate of 27,000 ounces using the lowest and most up to date figures we have from each mine, namely the poor Q2 performance figures at Yanfolila of 12k and the monthly run rate of 4,800 ounces at Kouroussa. Both mines are expected to ramp up significantly this quarter and there has been no word to the contrary to suggest otherwise so..

For the sake of simplicity I’ll assume the average sale price is $2,200 despite the hedge pricing being higher than last quarter and our unhedged production (+$2,400/oz gold price) will make up around half of production based on low end company guidance:

Yanfolila

base: 14,000 ounces at AISC 2,000/oz = $2.8m

mid: 15,000 ounces at AISC 1,900/oz = $4.5m

upper: 16,000 ounces at AISC 1,800/oz = $6.4m

Kouroussa:

base: 16,000 ounces at AISC 1,550/oz = $10.4m

mid: 17,000 ounces at AISC 1,450/oz = $12.8m

upper: 18,000 ounces at AISC 1,350/oz = $15.3m

The figures above provide a base case scenario for Q3 would be 30,000 ounces generating $13.2m after AISC

The upper estimate for Q3 of 34,000 ounces generates $21.7m after AISC.

We know most of the losses last quarter were a result of Yanfolila and this is being addressed. Kouroussa could easily overshoot the upper case scenario as it is forecast to be producing at a quarterly run rate of 25-30koz by end of September.

@Iwantthatone - yes that’s correct, the main consideration is how much cash Hummingbird begin to generate from a minimum group production of 30,000 ounces this quarter (hopefully 35-40k) and then towards the 40-45koz range in Q4.

I’m just looking trying to form a more rounded picture of where we are headed 12-18 months from now. We are in a much more comfortable position than we were last Friday and going forward Hummingbird has it all to prove with these third quarter results. I’m cautiously optimistic but trying not to get too excited by the prospect of net debt falling by as much as $15-20 million!

I would not be surprised if Hummingbird was closer to 25p by end 2025 as you mentioned. It requires 4-5 solid quarters but not necessarily standout given the current gold price and it’s likely trajectory in the coming year.

@ Simplyme - yes on the tax credits if applicable in Guinean mining will certainly provide Hummingbird with additional cash in the coffers during the first few years.

I agree with the points both yourself and Tony raises that the share price is poised to rise quickly once the debt risk falls. It will certainly help market interest if once they have achieved a steady rate of 150k. - 200koz to build on their life of mine expectations by drilling out additional resources. Yanfolila underground development will be the next major development which hopefully will unlock higher grade ore at depth.

16-18p by end of 2025 on your figures would be reasonable but I’m not convinced your figures take into consideration things like non-cash expenditure like impairments and depreciation which help lower a profitable company’s tax liability

@Tony - you said 6-8p at the end of that, you really think HUM will trade at that level throughout 2025? The 150,000 scenario mentioned is looking ahead from January 1st 2025 when Kouroussa is expected to be at nameplate capacity, fully ramped up, even then I’ve suggested a conservative 75% of achievable production (based on missed guidance in the past).

I don’t understand how you arrived at net profit of $65 million next year on $180 million cash-flow. Capex, admin, debt internet and the various expenses mentioned can be offset against profits before tax due I believe. In terms of tax liability then, it is different in Mali and Guinea. I follow Resolute Mining based in Mali and their overall tax payments don’t appear as high as 50% after costs