Member Info for BPat890

Another day of gold futures making record highs over the $2,600/oz psychological barrier. Gold price trailing not far behind!

Highest risers in sector include

Adriatic Metals +10.9%

Endeavour Mining +10.5%

Fresnillo +5.7%

Metals Exploration +5.1%

Not forgetting the wee tiddlers MTL, HUM and THX

In terms of Q3 production the company are likely to have achieved a minimum 50% increase on last quarter simply down to Yanfolila producing at standard levels again and coming off a very low base last quarter and Kouroussa increasing production through June July since Corica returned to site and mine plan forecasts for achieving higher nameplate production by end of September. I’m fact Hummingbird are forecasting an even greater increase than 50% according to latest presentation.

The most recent and up to date quarterly run rate figures we have to hand:

Yanfolila Q2 - 12,065 ounces

Kouroussa post quarter - 15,600 ounces (based on an average 1,200 ounces per week through July).

Assuming Kouroussa production plateaus at 4.8koz per month, contrary to guidance and ignoring the clear indications it’s ramping up towards the 8-9koz monthly run rate whilst assuming we have a repeated dismal quarterly performance at Yanfolila (FYI Q2 was the worst performance on record) despite assurances that production will be significantly improved this quarter then we are at an absolute base case quarterly production scenario of 27,500 ounces… ironically, the highest group production on record.

But 27,500 ounces in Q3 would be a disappointing result given Kouroussa was and still is ramping up and Yanfolila is expected to produce significantly more with second half group production guidance estimates of 65,000 - 95,000 ounces.

The recent presentation confirmed Q4 weighting will be higher than this quarter as Kouroussa will hopefully have a full quarter at nameplate capacity beginning in October. The company forecast Kouroussa to be producing at a monthly run rate of about 8-9koz going forward by end of September. Whether it’s at that level or not the monthly run rate will now be higher than July’s 4.8koz.

Additionally changes at Yanfolila are expected through this quarter as it transitions to higher grade mill throughput with the increase in ore mining volumes set to “significantly improve throughput grades and consequently production” so higher production in Q4 was and remains the company message.
 
Like Simplyme and other shareholders I’ve looked at worst case scenarios using figures that are more conservative than official base case guidance to account for unforeseen issues.

Q3 group production of 30koz would raise about $13 million pre-tax after AISC (gold sales at $2,200/oz) whilst 34koz brings in almost $22m in sales.

I would expect to see group cashflow positive with the net debt position down by around $8-10 million on last quarter.

Small correction: The proportion of sales affected by hedging will be fewer in comparison to Q2 given group production is expected to have jumped by around 50%!

Yanfolila’s profitable operations helped in part to fund Kouroussa’s mine construction, development and ramp up over the last two years which is now finally achieving cashflow positive performance (+15koz quarterly run rate as of July).

In 2024 production was always anticipated to have been second half weighted. The company reiterated this after Q1 results inferring Yanfolila production in each of Q3 and Q4 would be higher than first quarter output of around 17,000 ounces. Q2 production and attributed AISC figures were below previous levels and estimates, coming at the worst time, with Corica having downed tools and gone on strike for two months at Kouroussa.

Yanfolila production should now rise significantly in the second half, confirmed with revised guidance and the detailed reports for why Q2 performance was so poor. Yanfolila is transitioning to higher output through the quarter with the increase in ore mining volumes set to “significantly improve mill throughput grades and consequently production”.

Second half production guidance across both mines estimates 65,000 - 95,000 ounces, with Q4 weighting higher as Kouroussa ramps up this quarter until it’s capable of producing around 8-9koz per month. When Corica returned in late May they had about 5-6 weeks of production ramping up to the end of the quarter. The post quarter production ramp up continued with Kouroussa achieving 4.8koz in July. The company have reiterated in their recent presentation they are on track to achieve Q3 forecasted group production of around 30-35koz.

Looking at the average gold price it will be higher than previous quarters even with the hedges in place. The proportion of sales will be fewer in comparison to Q2 given group production is expected to have jumped by around 50%!

Average gold price sales must be generating at least $2,200/oz this quarter (hedges are averaging $2,100/oz).

The average gold sales price achieved has fluctuated more than $400/oz in the past 3 years and would have been higher recently but for those hedges which are soon to come off. The price of gold is breaking new record highs almost every week which will contribute to even higher margins in the months ahead but particularly after all the hedges come off!

30koz+ in Q3 and 40koz+ in Q4 and thereafter with the lion’s share coming from lower cost Kouroussa mine production.

For all the nonsense posted about Q2 over the last 10 weeks the only thing that matters going forward will be how quickly the company’s net debt position reverses. Gold price futures at $2,580/oz today and going higher as the Fed begins to cut rates. Hedges at $2,100 coming off by early next year (unlocking almost $500/oz more!).

Should be turning $1,000 gross profit for every ounce once hedges come off. These are enormous sums of cash being generated now and nothing like the situation in the first half of the year.

Hold

For

Gold

Simplyme - the $1,500/oz AISC estimate you provided across both mines is a reasonable assumption if group production is in the 140-150koz region in 2025. It’s clear to me you are being conservative, even compared with base case company forecasts in order to show profitability of operations in the event the performance slips. Both mines are projected to produce 200,000 ounces of gold combined for significantly less but I don’t think anyone here holding is anticipating a trouble free year ahead.

The resident derampers are desperately trying to play down the Q4 guidance, which is set to be substantially more impressive than this quarters 30koz+

This looks like another opportunistic takeout. Shanta Gold, I3e and now Centamin. The market has failed to adequately value these UK listed stocks and so many others for far too long, so it’s little wonder they are being gobbled up by our sector peers.

Very thorough presentation, the clearest sign yet the company are positioned for a transformative year ahead!

The company’s cash burn was more than $4 million averaged across each month in Q2 with the bulk of losses coming at the beginning of the quarter while Corica were on strike. Their return to site alongside new initiatives to improve their performance culminated in a rapid turnaround no doubt narrowing losses in June so that by the end of the quarter the cash position was $0.4m.

It’s been more than 10 weeks since then. Clearly the group are not burning through cash now. There is no additional loans to drawdown.

Had the company been operating at a loss following 30th June they would have run out of money weeks ago!

This is the truth the resident trolls have no answer for. That the ramp up at Kouroussa is in full swing now and was more than likely generating positive cash flow in June and certainly into July with the new mine producing 5,000 ounces per month (60koz / annum run rate) across the first month of this quarter and forecast to continue it’s ramp up to around 7,500 ounces per month by end of September.

Will be fun watching them scramble for shares on the date Q3 results are issued.

Eternal doom-monger David Brent shared this little morsel earlier and couldn’t put his finger on why Dugbe is “suddenly more feasible” …

What has possibly changed in the past year … hint, t’s up 30% …

“There's always a lot of interest, it didn't start at this conference everyone seems to think will make some difference, as though people attending didn't know Dugbe existed. There has probably been loads of interest for years,but nobody bought it, and in all likelihood won't buy it now. It didn't suddenly become more feasible because of a conference.”

Unexpected yet still very welcome update on the growing cash pile.

The half year results note cash held on 30 June 2024 was $12.0 million, so the total grew by $4 million in two months! The proportion being net cash after debt is up since then too.

That’s a quick increase, might be missed by some when the company are instead using the cash position on 31 December 2023 as their choice comparison.

With most of the capital expenditure for the year already spent and the average gold price higher than recent quarters there’s a strong possibility of ending this year with $25 million cash!

EBITDA of $8.3 million for the latest quarter is up 76% on the first quarter of 2024, year-to-date EBITDA of $13.0 million.

That’s 96% higher compared with the first six months of 2023!

Cash position of $12 million as the company invests in the ramp up of Coringa, the on-going mine development at Palito and the investment made in the crushing and ore sorting plant at the Coringa mine.

Mining rates continue to increase and the 115,860 tonnes of ore mined in the first six months of the year was a 40% increase compared with the same period of 2023.

Gold production for H1 2024 of 18,010 ounces, (2023: 16,524 ounces).

Cash held on 30 June 2024 of $12.0 million (31 December 2023: $11.6 million).

EBITDA for the six-month period of $13.0 million (2023: $6.6 million).

Post-tax profit for the six-month period of $9.2 million (2023: $5.0 million).

Profit per share of 12.18 cents compared with a profit per share of 6.58 cents for the same six month period of 2023.

Net cash inflow from operations for the six-month period of US$6.6 million (2023: US$5.8 million).

Average gold price of US$2,209 per ounce received on gold sales during the six month period (2023: US$1,940).

Cash Cost for the six-month period to 30 June 2024 of US$1,401 per ounce (six months 2023: US$1,258 per ounce).

All-In Sustaining Cost for the six-month period to 30 June 2024 of US$1,782 per ounce (six months 2023: US$1,519 per ounce).

Looks that way, a tad under 13 pence which is almost the current share price and next dividend payment thrown in. Doesn’t seem like an enticing enough offer for the majority of investors posting here although you could argue the price will fall back in the event the offer is rejected. I intend vote against as I’d prefer to watch I3E develop over the next 3-5 years and receive the dividends over the course of the period. GTE are not going to continue with the generous dividend payouts but will rather use the cashflow for their current operations.

Glad someone else spotted that. Goldinvestor / infinity also appear to be the user tweeting as their choice of language, spelling, grammar is very similar.

Resolute Loan Facility

Resolute secures senior debt facilities of up to USD 140 million with Nedbank and Citibank to strengthen liquidity

Resolute Mining Limited is pleased to announce that it has signed senior debt facilities (the "Facility") of up to USD 140 million with Nedbank acting through its Nedbank Corporate and Investment Banking division and Citibank N.A. The facilities provide immediate access to up to USD 60 million of funding, with the potential to increase this amount by up to USD 80 million through the Accordion Facility.

The Facility was arranged by Nedbank, a longstanding financing partner that has supported Resolute in previous debt financings. The primary purpose of the Facility is to provide increased flexibility to continue to explore organic and inorganic growth opportunities. The Facility also gives Resolute the ability to maintain its strong financial position when capitalising on emerging opportunities. Resolute's announced growth opportunities including the Syama Phase 1 expansion and investments in extending the mine life at Mako, are currently self-funded, therefore it is anticipated that the Facility will remain undrawn until other growth projects have been identified.

The three-year Facilities comprises:

§ a USD 30 million Revolving Credit Facility (RCF);

§ a USD 30 million Term Loan Facility with a one-year drawdown period;

§ USD 80 million Accordion Facility;

§ A credit margin of 5.25%; and

§ No hedging requirements.

At the end of June 2024, Resolute's net cash was USD 96.6 million, including Cash and Bullion of USD 143.3 million. With the new financing facility Resolute's liquidity will increase to over USD 200 million strengthening the balance sheet. Drawdown of Facility remains subject to customary conditions precedent for a facility of this nature.

Chris Eger, CFO, commented,

"We are delighted to secure this USD 60 million loan facility and appreciate the confidence Nedbank and Citibank have shown in our business. This financing demonstrates the Company's ability to access commercial debt financing at competitive terms from international lenders.

This loan facility provides us the flexibility to drive sustainable organic growth of the business as well as pursue inorganic growth opportunities."

Previous quarters production during the rainy season:

Q3 2021 - Yanfolila produced 22,102 ounces

Q3 2022 - Yanfolila produced 16,827 ounces

Q3 2023 - Yanfolila produced 18,399 ounces

Trust in the facts rather than deramping buffoons

Same old regurgitated feed from Punter about Friday placing. Posts it every week and proven wrong each time 🤣

@IWantThatOne -

Current market value is $90 million and we have $155 million debt there or thereabouts. If a sale was agreed, even for part of Pasofino, that would vastly improve the valuation of Hummingbird’s share of the asset.

Right now the market is likely discounting 95% of its asset value being so far from production and seemingly far from a realised cash offer but I’d one materialises then we will rerate toward the 20p ceiling so many say will never happen!

I agree the asset is probably in the $100-150m region, more if the buyer prefers to take a majority stake rather than the entire asset. I’ve seen deals where by it’s 75:25 and the major takes on mine funding but Chinese buyers do seem eager to clean up entire projects recently so we will see.

That’s a simple view, when the last 18 months performance at Yanfolila has been in line with forecasts up until last quarter.

Yanfolila production up to last quarter

Q1 2023 - 27,262 ounces at AISC $1,109/oz

Q2 2023 - 23,885 ounces at AISC $1,234/oz

Q3 2023 - 18,399 ounces at AISC $1,651/oz

Q4 2023 - 14,419 ounces at AISC $1,701/oz

Q1 2024 - 16,999 ounces at AISC $1,616/oz

The issues surrounding slow ramp up of Kouroussa are a combination of factors. It’s missed guidance along the way in part due to recruitment issues in Guinea, lack of near surface oxides as locals have extracted ore in the past, Corica performance which may have been intertwined with personnel shortages and near surface ore worse than indicated in the mine plan. Then we had two months from end of March to late May with Corica on strike so third party contractors were brought in. Finally in June the mining of ore grades noticeably improved and July recorded 4,800 ounces as the mill grade throughput began to pick up. Hummingbird expect that trend to continue as we go deeper, with the prior artisanal mining having less impact on ore extracted now