Member Info for BPat890

8.8p earnings (sterling?) would be stellar!

If they achieve that in 2025 then it puts this on a forward p/e of just 3.6

It will be interesting to watch for the peak debt quarter as that can tend to weigh on company valuations. Once debt begins to slide in two consecutive quarters the earnings multiple will almost certainly jump per market risk appetite.

It was infinity888’s post at 13:26 that likely triggered the buying on false rumour that a deal for Hummingbird was “incoming”.

The original post reads: “Looks like the deal is near to be closed .... 100-200M$ for Hummingbird incoming”

Their follow up posts were vague over the “reference” ie the Osino deal which has been public knowledge for 6 months and so can see why there was some confusion over which deal they were referring to and given the recent update Hummingbird put out regarding Pasofino it looks like these cowboys decided to make a market for themselves and swing trade the volume.

Just an aside I’ve not seen David Brent post anything positive about the price movements before, odd when you consider the intraday rise was clearly manipulated. Guess we know which side you play for ..

The Osino deal is genuine. It was announced back in February. I think the concern is that whoever tweeted the comparison may have also begun the Chinese whispers here that Dugbe sale was imminent.

Studies at the University of Bucharest. Wonder if she is a descendant of the infamous impaler!?

She might add a little pizzazz to the board room meetings and push for more strategic trading of our holdings.

I’m half kidding of course.. 🧛🏼‍♀️

@simon I’ve considered jumping in on a couple of occasions but thankfully held off! The slide has been staggering and so many holding for perceived safety will have watched their investments whittled down. Is there anything to suggest this is absolute rock bottom?

Just a coincidence we had a user here called Goldinvestor7 who spread misinformation and defamatory comments about the company and has disappeared, only to be replaced by Goldinvestor, a user that was up until a week ago negative about Hummingbird but has suddenly started sharing a dodgy tweet on Twitter, claiming there are 30+ related news stories connected with this deal. If this is a false rumour then LSE admin aught to look into the two user IDs in question. This reaks of market manipulation! Be wary of these users IMO

@applebee - I agree this Twitter source and the users posting here claiming it’s ‘legit’ without explaining why or where the source is coming from looks shady as f*ck! Still the share price was due a rerate in anticipation of significantly improved Q3 results so if this Dugbe sale rumour dissipates into thin air over the next week or two it won’t matter much in the long run. If I had to guess I’d say the same crew deramping for the past few weeks have bought and are spinning a story to dump high.

@initinity - That source on Twitter looks dodgy, if it turns out to be accurate I’d be amazed

Pasofino engages in strategic review discussions

Pasofino Gold Limited has provided an update on its ongoing strategic review, including plans for interim financing to support the Dugbe Gold Project’s feasibility study.

The mineral exploration company is in discussions with multiple parties regarding potential acquisition offers and aims to finalise an exclusivity agreement by September 30, 2024.

Pasofino is set to secure funds for the interim financing of the Dugbe Gold Project, which aims to improve the project’s economics in the positive gold environment. The financing will be secured by insiders of Pasofino and will be announced within one trading day after the press release, subject to approval from the TSX Venture Exchange.

The company said they are engaging with multiple parties to realise value for shareholders, considering current gold prices, the project’s NAV, and recent M&A transactions. Two parties have provided offer letters to acquire Pasofino, and a site visit has occurred. The company confirms it has not signed any and is negotiating terms.

In addition, Pasofino continues to engage with interested parties in the completion of their confirmatory due diligence and structuring in order to enable the compamy and the third party to enter into a letter of intent/exclusivity agreement by September 30, 2024, and thereafter the intention is to enter into a definitive acquisition agreement in Q4 2024.

https://www.miningreview.com/gold/pasofino-engages-in-strategic-review-discussions/?amp=1

8.4 tick up, Playboy have you bought back in?

I don’t even bother with that Punt. He’s a perma-bear and will be here even after we break year highs in the coming months

I hadn’t converted dollar earnings into sterling for the P/E calculation, my bad.

2025 earnings forecast $8-9c is approximately 6.1-6.8p

Is that roughly where your calculations are?

@Mulder - hi is that price to earnings multiple based on 2025 group production with 1st year Mintails production included at current gold price of $2.5koz? Could you please share your workings as mine have a p/e well below 4 for next year

Funny this liar has a short memory but his posting history is there for all to read!

Goldinvestor7 has spent weeks sh*tposting over on the HUM board while claiming to have made £50k apparently! Loves blowing his own trumpet and hates to be wrong. Someone with all the money and time in the world but no life to lead lol. Seen it many times before, you are a charlatan.

Nobody believes or cares the stories you spin about your investing but when your drivel is shared daily with the intention to spook investors then you’re going to be called out. When your defamatory claims concerning the company’s business are relentlessly shared in a public chat forum and you’ve openly declared you want the company to go under then people have a right to call you out and relay those posts to the company to assess if they warrant legal action.

I can only hope you continue to frequent these boards so we can share the good news in mid October and again in January.

You were wrong about refinancing. It’s happened when you said it would never. And you will be proven wrong about positive cash generation come mid October when group production is up 50% on Q2 and cash on the balance sheet sufficiently replenished.

Reads exceptionally well! It’s very nicely primed for a maiden dividend at the end of the year!

Exactly what GGG wrote! If everyone holds their ground and votes down the initial offer there is a good chance they will reconvene with major shareholders to try and secure their approval for an increased offer.

The company and its assets are more attractive than Shanta Gold which was operating in Africa and these assets could be stripped in the event its takeover and sold piecemeal to other oil and gas majors.

I would not rule out a rival bid coming

That is wrong. They had $0.4m cash to hand at the end of June and we are now two months on from then. Think!

If Hummingbird had burned through that remaining $0.4 million they would have announced a raise weeks ago!

The burn last quarter averaged across each month was $4-5 million but we know end of last quarter Kouroussa was back up running and had by July begun to produce positive cash flow. Anybody here claiming 1,200 ounces per week (60koz per annum run rate) isn’t turning positive cashflow should take a seat..

So Hummingbird’s group operations turned cash-flow positive in July or possibly late June and sales from the increasing production is going back to the balance sheet. They will be able to navigate debt repayments if the company continues on this track, even if they miss lower end guidance in the second half!

The year is not over yet nor is the recent past a reflection of things to come.

Kouroussa

During the first 3 months production it was not operating anywhere near the level it should have been and Corica’s performance was called into question. This led to their walk out.

The following 2 months after that Kouroussa was not ramping up and simply operating at base level with a skeleton crew.

Only during the final month of Q2 when Corica returned to site did production begin to ramp up.

Production of 4,800 ounces in July was the highest it’s been and clearly now operating at a profitable level this month and every month going forward.

Once this is more or less confirmed to the market in mid October there will be a correction higher.

Q4 forecasts are higher than this quarter and will be better defined once this quarter’s results are known.

Let’s see where the share price is on December 31st. I’d wager we retest the 13.5p levels before then and certainly move higher once Q4 results are announced in late January.

Correction to last paragraph: in comparison to Q2 given Kouroussa production is expected to have doubled! Group production is forecast to be at least 50% higher than Q2 at around 30,000 ounces.

That may turn out to be an overly conservative assessment in due course.

Hummingbird previously experienced a loss making period at Yanfolila in 2021-22 however were able to quickly stabilise the situation and return the mine to being cashflow positive. Yanfolila’s profitable operations helped in part to fund Kouroussa’s mine construction, development and ramp up over the last two years which is now finally achieving cashflow positive performance (+15koz quarterly run rate as of July).

In 2024 production was always anticipated to have been second half weighted. The company reiterated this after Q1 results inferring Yanfolila production in each of Q3 and Q4 would be higher than first quarter output of around 17,000 ounces. Q2 production and attributed AISC figures were below previous levels and estimates, coming at the worst time, with Corica having downed tools and gone on strike for two months at Kouroussa.

Yanfolila production is expected to rise significantly in the second half, confirmed with revised guidance and the explanation for poor Q2 performance. Yanfolila is transitioning to higher output through the quarter with the increase in ore mining volumes set to “significantly improve mill throughput grades and consequently production”.

Second half production guidance across both mines estimates 65,000 - 95,000 ounces, with the last quarter weighting likely higher as the ramp up at Kouroussa is expected to continue until it’s capable of producing around 8,000 ounces per month. When Corica returned in late May they had about 5-6 weeks of production ramping up to the end of the quarter. The post quarter production ramp up continued with Kouroussa achieving 1,200 ounces per week across July! They are not far off the target 2,000 ounces per week expected by end of September.

Looking at the average gold price achieved it will be higher than Q2 even with the hedged gold which makes up a smaller proportion of sales in comparison to Q2 given group production is expected to have doubled! Average sales will generate at least $2,200/oz this quarter and more if output is towards the upper level of guidance.