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@bobsknees - I missed your post earlier whilst correcting chief deramper Punter64 / Goldinvestor7 over their false claims Kouroussa rainy season was worse than usual.

To answer your question, companies don’t release market sensitive news in presentations but rather have to formally go through the official process RNS announcements.

They talked about continuing ramp up in general terms but commercial production rates were delayed, not a major surprise when myself and others are expecting 15-16koz. They talked about the fact mill relining was completed well within the timeframe and probably was the primary cause of commercial production being delayed. The bad news (not yet confirmed) is like I’ve suggested they missed their company guidance by around 20%. Kouroussa looks dead certain to have had a solid quarter, 100% increase on Q2 production, cash flow positive. Even the dreaded rainy season was drier than average as I’ve found out todays.

Yanfolila is the unknown and it’s why I’m cautiously estimating just 14-15k oz, which is not much of an increase on last quarter and far below the 18-20koz estimate the company put out in the last quarterly update.

Yanfolila having a poor performance isn’t ideal when we need to repay $25-30 million. That is why they secured another $20 million short term loan recently, to cover themselves as they continue to build on Q3 ramp up.

Outlook is sunny and dry at Yanfolila from next Saturday, rainy season behind us, with a bit of luck they get back to the 18-20k oz level it should be easily capable of making.

You’re changing the goalposts there 🤣

Are we talking about Kouroussa or Yanfolila? Pick a mine.

Kouroussa just had a drier than average rainy season.

Kouroussa has only been in production for a year and only properly ramping up since late May.

Mention of “the last few years (rainy seasons)” with context of Kouroussa is meaningless.

I’ll repeat again. Kouroussa has had a drier than average rainy season.

Are you disputing the figures below?

Regarding rainfall at Kouroussa, I have just bothered to spend an hour going through various data sets and charts to see if it’s really as bad as the resident deramper has been saying.

Figures below with links so you can check the average for each month vs actual rainfall.

Spoiler alert, Kouroussa has had a drier than average rainy season.

Average rainfall at Kouroussa vs actual monthly rainfall

July average 319mm vs 211mm actual

August average 375mm vs 420mm actual

September average 338mm vs 316mm actual

Q3 average 1,032mm vs 947mm actual

Link below shows actual Q3 rainfall at Kouroussa of 947mm

https://www.visualcrossing.com/weather-history/Kouroussa/metric/2024-07-01/2024-09-30

Link below has the average rainfall per month. Scroll to the chart ‘Rainfall Averages’ to find the monthly precipitation total.

https://www.worldweatheronline.com/kouroussa-weather-averages/kouroussa/gn.aspx

Q3 rainy season has seen below average rainfall at Kouroussa, only August was above the long term average and only marginally so.

@Lew - exactly, if they haven’t already started buying stock they soon will. The next major update will be Q3 results with confirmation of cash build, roughly 30k oz and more precise guidance on Q4 group production.

Dugbe sale due diligence ongoing throughout this month with potential for further developments (share price spiked to 10p on last news).

More details on the focus to build a stronger management team and strategy to improve efficiencies. Kouroussa could already be producing at a monthly run rate of 6koz which would mean we are only a matter of weeks away from the commercial production confirmation.

Further news on the conversion of short term loans to gold notes, increasing liquidity and enabling further investment in Yanfolila (mentioned in last presentation).

😆 well who would have thought ALL the regular derampers are out in force this weekend, posting misleading statements and speculating on the future of this company, despite having no skin in the game .. apparently ..

Putting in another late shift Punter 🤣

Let’s put to bed the ridiculous assertion by Punter64 that two weeks worth of production was lost at Kouroussa during September. It is simply not true.

In the most recent presentation at the 20 minute mark, Tom Hill states “the mill reline potentially takes up to two weeks shutdown and we managed to complete that well within that timeframe”.

Interestingly despite the week or so of reduced production due to mill relining they have reaffirmed H2 guidance - note 21 minute mark.

The company annnounced are still on track to meet guidance (I presume they are referring to lower end guidance) and are currently reviewing the figures.

Lower end FY 2024 guidance was a combined 115,000 ounces comprising 65,000 ounces from Yanfolila and 50,000 ounces from Kouroussa.

In the first half Yanfolila produced 29,000 ounces while Kouroussa produced 13,650 ounces.

If they are to achieve lower end guidance as stated they would be looking at second half production of 36,000 ounces at Yanfolila and a little over 36,000 ounces at Kouroussa for a combined second half group production of 72,000 ounces.

Coincidence or yet another sign of the boiler room gang trying to control the narrative, both Punter64 and Goldinvestor7, the two serial derampers calling for the company to go under and investors to lose it all have both chosen today of all days to come out with their own Q3 production estimates.

Goldinvestor7 talking about 11-12k oz Kouroussa and Yanfolila the same as Q2 with at most “25,000 for both mines”

Punter64 now accepting the company’s July output of 4800 ounces but believes they only managed a “small increase to 4900 oz on August” despite the rate of ramp up in July and comments in the presentation confirming they are near commercial production .. and then coming up with a baseless claim they managed only “ 2500 in September (5000 /2 due to the mill relining) for a total of circa 12400 oz” .. and I’ll presume their Yanfolila prediction matches up with GoldInvestor7 😆

Punter64 - regurgitating the same nonsense I see, with a little bit tacked on. Shouldn’t you be posting that from your Goldinvestor7 ID??

Hummingbird secured a $20 million loan contrary to what the naysayers could happen. Punter has been calling a 4p Friday placing for weeks, but has finally admitted defeat and started posting about non-dilutionary funding being explored.

Now Hummingbird have received the loan it will strengthen the balance sheet while the company makes the significant $25-30 million debt repayment (Kouroussa construction debt) due this quarter.

He says Hummingbird are losing money but a $20 million loan will be enough for a $30 million debt repayment. Somebody help Punter out. His maths ain’t mathing now 😆

Investor Meet presentation clearly lays out Kouroussa production increased through the quarter. Keep pulling figures out of your hat Punter, only serves to show you up for what you really are..

@mimbrit - you won’t find 30k oz group production figure mentioned in any presentation because it’s my own estimate based on the workings provided below.

I’ve suggested this would be a likely lower case figure since early August, when the company provided Kouroussa’s July production numbers - the ramp up had achieved 4.8k oz by end of July and forecast to continue rising to around 6-7k oz on a monthly run rate by end of the quarter.

As you’re no doubt aware my estimate of 30k oz is significantly below the company’s own lower end guidance of 36k oz, so this is hardly a ramp. Quite the opposite in fact, as an exercise to understand the likely outcome in Q3.

The only detailed Kouroussa numbers we have are 4.8k oz in July, a presentation slide that shows how weekly production at the mine has risen through June and July and the target of commercial production being pushed back.

Punter / Goldinvestor7 are desperately looking for ways to twist the narrative and are now suggesting Kouroussa production peaked in July despite the company recently announcing at the presentation the ramp up had continued and progress had been made towards achieving commercial production.

Even assuming a slower rate of ramp up at Kouroussa in August and September they would have been producing at a weekly rate of around 1,500 ounces before the mill lining issue, which may have affected output during the week it was under maintenance.

RE: ….9 Oct 2024 20:35

“Also imagine if you’re wrong how much that post will get copy and pasted.

My guess is total production of 11,000

And Yano still at the same production as Q2”

Even dear GoldInvestor7, chief rabble rouser and centre of all excellence believes group production has risen by 15% over Q2 to 23k oz.

Kouroussa has continued to ramp up during the quarter as mentioned in the recent presentation and figures soon be revealed.

Goldinvestor7 - that was comical. Just the other day you posted Kouroussa production would be 11,000 ounces. Still waiting to hear how you work that out 😆

@mimbrit - on the contrary the latest presentation supports the Q3 production estimate of 30k oz.

The most recent and up to date quarterly run rate figures we have to hand:

Yanfolila Q2 production 12,065 ounces

Kouroussa July figures extrapolated 15,600 ounces (based on an average 1,200 ounces per week through July)

Kouroussa production has continued to ramp up from the July rate of 4.8koz per month.

Yanfolila was expected to produce at least 18koz this quarter, certainly not a repeat of the dismal second quarter figures - Q2 was the worst performance on record.

If you believe Q3 production is lower than 27,500 ounces then you believe Yanfolila had a worse quarter than Q2 and production at Kouroussa peaked in July.

Latest presentation was clear the ramp up has continued towards commercial production through the quarter.

“ You couldn't make this guys delusions of grandeur up”

Goldinvestor7 has used that phrase in a peculiar manner too. A little careless posting the same guff from both of your accounts eh?

@Goldinvestor7 - constructive criticism is welcome, smears and misinformation that you tend to resort to is not.

Do you care to post how you arrived at your Q3 Kouroussa production estimate of 11k oz??

Q4 Kouroussa production is expected to be higher, at lower AISC and generating substantially more cash.

Taking a conservative approach well below company guidance Kouroussa production is likely to be more than 20koz and a realised gold price around $200/oz higher (hedge price increase + more ounces exposed to gold price).

The company expects the AISC to fall toward $1,000/oz as it approaches 30k oz quarterly run rate, on 20k oz production it will probably be below $1,500/oz.

$18 million gross cash generated this quarter using conservative figures:

- 20k oz Kouroussa production

- $1,500/oz AISC

- $2,400/oz average gold sale price

Kouroussa is now the flagship mine and primary revenue generator making $7.5 million after AISC last quarter on 15koz production.

The most up to date figures as issued by the company, actual Kouroussa production figures for July released on 9th August 2024 in the Q2-2024 Operational and Trading Update. 

"Through July, Kouroussa achieved average gold pours of c.1,200 oz per week, with approximately 4,800 oz produced during the month." 



There are 13 weeks in Q3 and assuming average production remained at 1,200 oz per week that amounts to 15,600 ounces for the quarter.

The ramp up continued post July, rising towards the commercial production rate, confirmed in the company’s most recent presentations.



Corrica only returned to Kouroussa end of May, production having been severely impacted for much of Q2. It began to rise again from low weekly pours during the last 4-5 weeks of the second quarter with the the company highlighting “improved fleet availability and utilisation” that they were accessing the fresh rock ore body containing the high-grade, undepleted gold “essential for Kouroussa's ramp-up”and that they were “witnessing a steady increase in gold production.”



To summarise since late May through July it's evident production was increasing hence the strong assumption this trajectory higher continued into the latter portion of Q3 (August - September).

Recent presentations have confirmed while they didn't achieve commercial production during Q3 they had been making steady progress towards it.

Stated Q3 guidance for Kouroussa was 18-20koz however given the mill lining issue it’s more likely they have achieved 15-16koz. This translates to a 100% increase on Q2 production.

Kouroussa generating positive cashflow in Q3 is all but confirmed at a 15koz quarterly run rate.

For comparison in Q4 2023 Yanfolila produced 14.4k ounces at AISC $1,701 /oz.

Kouroussa’s operational costs should work out cheaper on a per ounce basis assuming a comparatively similar run rate owing to better grades and efficiency. With production of 15-16k ounces the Kouroussa’s AISC should be around the same level (accounting for inflationary pressures).

The averaged gold sale price received last quarter is around $2,200/oz with hedges included.

A $500/oz gross margin on the 15-16koz Kouroussa production.

Ahh yes who else have we seen using the phrases

“trying to make the blind see” and “You cannot say you were not warned” … same script being churned out by the multi-ID brigade.