Member Info for BPat890

@Lew - I had my suspicions about Bushy when he came out in defence of the Goldinvestor7 user a couple months ago.

At the time it was Goldinvestor7 posting false or misleading statements here on a daily basis and I raised the point of highlighting the particularly defamatory allegations with admin and the company. Bushy tailed then came out in an oddly rude and defensive manner. He didn’t seem to like the idea of Goldinvestor7 being held accountable for the defamatory statements he was making..

They may have been switching between users, ramping and deramping to drum up interest before and encourage debate to gauge sentiment. Now they are looking to buy they’ve cashed in their ace (flipping Bushytailed and outing him in the process). Truly a scammers paradise.

Is that a new record for Punter64? Desperate last attempt to pile on the fear before results which will no doubt beat Q1 and Q2 production.

Notice he’s toned down his false statements to keep admin from deleting his posts.

1 + 2 are good positive news, Betts replacement is what many shareholders want, the company needs better leadership and the addition of a new tier of management in the coming months shows planning to better manage the higher rates of production at two mines in the years ahead.

3. Drier than average rainy season at Kouroussa as already proven. Kouroussa has only been in production for the last year. At the beginning of the quarter ramp up had increased to 4,800 ounces in the month of July, that is they were producing more ounces than previous months despite the rainfall encountered. 100% increase in production at Kouroussa quarter of quarter to 15-16koz would be a sterling achievement last quarter. Company have said the ramp up continued THROUGHOUT the quarter.

4. We know why Punter64 clings to Q2 numbers but won’t mention Q1. First half performance already known and behind us, company were anticipating a strong second half. The effects of the rainy season at Yanfolila already accounted for in the 14-15koz estimate which is why I’m only looking for a 15-20% increase on Q2. Dry season in Mali has arrived in case Punter forgot to mention it.

5. Yes mill relining completed “well within timeframe” according to company. Notice Punter removed the two weeks false statement from that point. Kouroussa production continued throughout the quarter. So it certainly was not a 2.4koz production in September that you claim it will be..

6. Commercial production will be announced after the company sustain operations at a certain level. The fact Punter won’t say Kouroussa monthly production is near 6,000 ounces but would rather spin it as 60% capacity shows their agenda. Kouroussa is likely at or around 18,000 ounce quarterly run rate. Lower AISC than Yanfolila.

The results are coming and with it an insight into Q4 outlook. Bright and sunny with a sprinkling of gold

@Bismarck - caught with your pants down and claims to “have better things to do”

While posting in a similar style to another troll that frequents this board, late into the night and all I n a share you claim not to hold..

The irony of your statement is clearly lost on you 🤣

@Bismarck - your posting history doesn’t lie 😆

Barely any posts over the year which indicates to me this isn’t your main account. Now given the sudden change of stance, repeating the same rhetoric as Goldinvestor7 / Punter64 after clearly rising to the bait, you jump in at odd hours of the day.

Very much appears like you are one and the same.

Or are we to believe there is more than one of you pathetic roaches plaguing this chat forum posting late into the evening? What kind of sad person spends their weekend posting smears and nonsense statements in a company chat forum they are not invested in?

I couldn’t bare to imagine we have more than one sad fellow posting nonsense from their basement 😆

Very easy to spot the multi-ID / boiler room gang when they come out on a Friday evening after market close and repeat the same thing lol 😆

Looking at this Bismark character he wrote last year on 30th November about the price of gold dropping to $1,300/oz within 3 years and what is even stranger is he made his investment case for allegedly holding Hum based on $1,800/oz gold “anything better is a real bonus”.. but gets cold feet with the gold price trading above $2,700/oz ..

Forgive us if we don’t take your fear-mongering drivel seriously pal 👋

Lol sure, blame me if it makes you feel better 😆

Admin did you a favour honestly removing the defamatory commentary you inserted with those bullet points. Could have got yourself into real trouble Punter64 / GoldInvestor7

The point? 😆 you’re deliberately misleading people! Stop posting lies. There is a reason admin removed your post of bullet points titled ‘Facts’ lol

Kouroussa rainfall was 947mm during the quarter. The average rainfall for this time of year is 1,032mm. Less rainfall than would otherwise be anticipated. Certainly not the washout you’re selling it as..

Punter64 over the past few weeks you have repeatedly claimed Kouroussa had experienced the wettest rainy season in years despite this being incorrect and proven false.

Q3 average rainfall at Kouroussa was less than average for this time of year, in other words a drier season for this time of year..

You are deliberately trying to conflate issues experienced at Yanfolila with ongoing ramp up at Kouroussa for some reason, perhaps to keep sentiment here as low as possible for your boiler room brigade to buy cheap stock prior to the company results..

Here is the conflating lie you repeat: “ Oh dear, BPat still hasn't grasped that the rainy season was the worst for years and that the pit has only just dried out (head firmly in the sand). 4800 oz in July, a small increase to 4900 oz on August (a Betts ramp up) and then 2500 in September (5000 /2 due to the mill relining), for a total of circa 12400 oz if you are luck”

Every time you repeat your lie I will correct you. Kouroussa has only been in production for one year and total rainfall during Q3 was less than average.

The mill relining didn’t knock out production for two weeks either, that is another misleading statement you continue to spin.

Have some integrity.

Tweedledee is never far behind..

And just for comparison in Q1 of this year when both mines produced a combined 22,867 ounces with an average sale price of $2,030/oz the company managed to repay $9 million of debt due to Coris bank.

I’ll stick with my Q3 estimate of both mines producing a combined 30k oz at an average sales price of $2,200/oz generating around $10 million cash / bullion increase in the quarter.

This quarter the cash generation is going to be even better with beginning of dry season Yanfolila production will move back in line closer to company guidance, the group could achieve 40k oz at an average sales price $2,450/oz (explained below) generating upwards of $30 million pre-tax cash and bullion.

Goldinvestor7 - we are all aware of your poor calls in the past, claiming there would be no refinancing for weeks despite company announcement there would be, denying it would happen and the company would fold within weeks.. we all remember how wrong you were on placings that didn’t materialise, how wrong you’ve been saying there is no more finance available despite the company taking a new loan last quarter and boosting liquidity.. remember your posts in support of Punter’s lies over how bad the rainy season has been at Kouroussa when it’s been proven the rainfall during Q3 was below average at Kouroussa.. these claims about Corica and how they haven’t been paid are false, they are on site and have been all quarter enabling the ramp up at Kouroussa to continue…

Hedge arrangements are coming off in the next 6 months and will unlock significantly more cashflow.

There were 60k oz forward sales hedged at $2,075/oz (from memory) at the beginning of Q3.

This amount had reduced to 34k oz hedged ounces at $2,230/oz remaining over the next 6 months by end of the quarter (mentioned in last video presentation).

As Simplyme mentioned previously this works out at less than 6koz hedged sales per month in Q4 and the next quarter.

With group production expected to be higher this quarter at around 40-45k, this will be the lowest number of hedges in percentage terms relative to overall production to date.

Hummingbird are benefiting from the increasing gold price now more than ever and margins per ounce are rising even faster than our peers who were unhedged and have already benefited from much of the gold price rise this year.

This will be true of this quarter and Q1 2025 as the remaining hedged sales come

off and we are fully exposure to market prices of $2,700/oz.

So the hedged portion of Hummingbird’s production is reducing quickly.

Q4 group production growth primarily from lower cost Kouroussa should take us from the circa 30k oz level last quarter to a conservative 40k oz this quarter with lower group AISC (we may soon hear just how low Kouroussa’s costs are). The new mine is expected to run at AISC of $1,000/oz once production is up to 10k oz per month.

This quarter then roughly half of production hedged at $2,230/oz leaves half exposed to $2,700/oz, generating an average sales price of $2,450/oz. Not too long ago the average price received was less than $2,000/oz.

May be too early to speculate on Q4 numbers but group sales of more than 40k oz this quarter could mean they are able to generate gross margins of $1,000/oz by the end of the quarter. In Q1 2025 there will be even fewer hedges, an improved overall sales price and lower AISC courtesy of higher production from the beginning of Q1.

The net debt will quickly reduce and with the support of Coris and Nioko the company should be to renegotiate on a portion of outstanding debt to defer it or roll it into the anticipated ‘gold loan note’.

Sale and disposal of Dugbe for cash would be a bonus in the meantime.

Punter64 your daily deramping isn’t fooling anyone. How many times have you been wrong about 4p Friday placing so far? I count 12 weeks since you first started spouting that nonsense.

Your general attitude concerning Kouroussa ramp up isn’t very helpful either. There have been at least three unexpected events affect ramp up during the year:

- fire on site during Q1

- Corica (main contractor) on strike during most of Q2 (March-May)

- mill relining in September

Further to the point, you nor I know what the current rate of Kouroussa production is.

The company won’t announce commercial rates until they have sustained production over and above the target rate. This is a minimum 30 day period of sustained production above the target run rate but t varies depending on other factors. It is not simply the run rate that matters.

Furthermore there is no industry requirement to make this announcement on achieving 60% of targeted production (10koz per month).

So where does this leave group finances?

The $20 million loan increases group debt to around $175 million vs cash and bullion position of roughly $30 million (bullion valued at market value vs hedged amounts).

Production growth in this final quarter is expected to be higher again as the rainy season draws to a close, Kouroussa producing close to commercial rates from the beginning of Q4 and expected to continue rising, focus on efficiencies, changes to management and hiring of industry experts.

The company mentioned H2 guidance (73,000 - 103,000) ounces is still within reach during the last presentation. It’s best to assume they meant lower end guidance is achievable. If Q3 was a 30 koz quarter then they are expecting 43k oz minimum to be achieved this quarter across both mines. Sales will be positively impacted not only by reducing AISC owing to higher output across both mines but also the reducing hedges. The average hedge price has increased from $2,075 in Q3 to $2,230 this quarter and there are far fewer ounces due to be affected this quarter and next according to the latest figures mentioned in the company presentation. I’ve estimated the average price to be received will be $2,400/oz including hedges in Q4 vs around $2,200/oz last quarter.

Given there should be fewer headwinds in Q4 there is a greater chance of the company achieving lower end guidance than there was this quarter so I wouldn't rule out a 40k oz result next quarter. A lot will depend on how far along both mines are in terms of their performance relative to the last known figures (Q2: 12k Yanfolila and July monthly: 4.8k oz Kouroussa) and whether issues for missing their guidance have been largely resolved.

The schedule of debt repayments prior to August 19th refinancing and the subsequent loan agreement with Nioko:

Loan repayments due 2024: c. $50 million

Loan repayments due 2025: c. $85 million

Remaining sum due by 2028: c $20 million

Financial developments since the half year period

$25 million refinancing with Coris Bank announced August 19th, pushing back roughly half of 2024 repayments to 2025-26.

Specifically they moved three tranches to H2-2025 with the remaining facilities due in 2026. Net debt unchanged.

Deferral of repayments reduced constraints on the balance sheet and demonstrated ongoing support and the long term commitment of Coris.

Discussions on the "debt repayments profile" ie. due dates of repayments next year are ongoing. Company confirmed in the update there were options for further funding.

A rough estimate for future repayments following the refinancing then:

Loan repayments due 2024: c. $25 million

Loan repayments due 2025: c. $105 million

Loan repayments due 2026 c. $10 million

Remaining sum due by 2028: c $20 million

Following the refinancing and at the very end of Q3 they announced a new short term loan of $20 million from largest shareholder Nioko (CIG SA).

This ensures they can now meet the remaining 2024 loan repayments of c. $25-30 million.

They also announced at this time a group wide review with investment going into managerial roles and operational initiatives, no doubt partly funded through this new loan.

The company indicated the combined sum of $30 million owed to Nioko on a 3 month term will be rolled into a long-term gold linked note.

Receipt of an additional $20 million from largest shareholder Nioko (CIG SA) shows Hummingbird continue to have the financial support and available options from its major shareholders in addition to Coris Bank.

Group liquidity is likely around $30 million today following receipt of this new loan, a sizeable production increase at Kouroussa (15-16k oz) up 100% on last quarter with group production of 30koz, assuming the loan repayments due haven't already begun.

Interesting about turn this week not only coming out with a change of stance but then repeating exactly what Goldinvestor7 and Punter64 have put out only this week in terms of estimated guidance, almost like trying to form a consensus by repeating the same lies they have resorted to.

Very simply, if you’ve seen the recent presentation then you’ll know the company have confirmed the mill relining can take up to two weeks but crucially was “completed well within the timeframe” .. so then why are you repeating the nonsense claim of two weeks lost production? There is no indication whatsoever of Kouroussa stalling in August either. The most recent updates since August have confirmed the ramp up has progressed towards commercial production throughout the quarter.

Just to clarify the headline EBITDA figure won’t include Kouroussa gold sales yet (same as first two quarters)

That’s a fairly downbeat assumption even if it is only Yanfolila gold mine we are talking about.

In Q1 and Q2 the company only reported Yanfolila EBITDA. Kouroussa back then was certainly loss making (5.8koz in Q1 and 7.8koz in Q2) and contributed towards the depletion of company cash reserves. If Q3 has been a 15-16koz quarter then the mine will be generating positive cash-flow and adding to the balance sheet / gold reserves.

Yes quite a few obvious spelling and grammatical errors being repeated by the same users each time. Makes spotting the multi-ID boiler gang a little easier 😆

The Financing, Operational & Strategic Review and Operational Update released at the end of Q3 provided a number of positive initiatives that indicate the direction of where the company is headed next year.

Receipt of an additional $20 million from largest shareholder Nioko (CIG SA) shows Hummingbird continue to have the financial support and available options from its major shareholders in addition to Coris Bank who recently agreed a refinancing.

The additional liquidity from the new loan will enable Hummingbird to repay the $25-30 loan repayment due to Coris Bank this quarter. Increasing group production (I’m anticipating Q3 to be 50% higher than Q2) and further growth in this final quarter will only go so far to covering the $25-30 million loan repayment after group costs (including optimisation plans that will draw on finances).

The company state the agreement to convert the combined short term CIG SA loan into a longer term fixed-rate gold-linked loan is anticipated shortly, along with opportunities to “increase the size of the Gold Loan”. This will further derisk the company’s financial situation, improving the balance sheet by pushing out debt repayments (likely beyond next year) and ultimately give the company time it needs to achieve sustainable mine performance.

The update confirms they are “progressing with several other non-equity financing options” and may well be announced in the next couple of weeks. This we can assume is in addition to a sale of Dugbe as they already stated they will be divesting non-core assets and have announced expressions of interest including a non-binding cash offer for it.

That Hummingbird are now consulting an independent leading industry expert to “maximise operational performance and efficiencies” is a clear signal where the company intend to take the business into next year and beyond.

The review will also focus on “cost efficiencies, improved governance, and enhanced accountability, ensuring overall improved performance”.

Hiring of new corporate and management positions including the Chief Transformation Officer is another positive indication of a growing business. In addition “the appointment of an experienced mining professional focussed on operational delivery and ramp up at Kouroussa is expected to be in place shortly.” They have strengthened the Board with the appointment of Mr. Toguyeni, a Director of Nioko Resources to more closely align shareholder interests.

Toguyeni has 35+ years experience with senior leadership positions at major international mining companies such as BHP Billiton, Alcoa Inc., and IAMGOLD.