Member Info for BPat890

GLEN, RIO and AAL are all performing better in the wake of BHP’s approach. I wouldn’t be surprised to see additional interest from outside of UK listed stocks given the value proposition and rising price of metal prices which is expected to continue as supply deficits hit in the coming decades.

https://amp.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/may/03/glencore-may-trigger-bidding-war-for-mining-rival-anglo-american

Wondering if this is attributable to the latest results? Seems to have begun rising before the 15th and gathered momentum after results published. I’m speculating the bullish sentiment in the update leaked sending the price up in the week ahead of results day. Time will tell if recent buyers are in it for the long haul but it’s good to see us above £1 again

I3E still look like an inviting value proposition and with a 9% dividend forecast for the year ahead is there going to be a better time to buy?

I note BHP are down today which may indicate its unlikely they’ll increase the offer in the event £25 is rejected but at least the market is aware now of how undervalued Anglo American and to a wider extent the mining sector is still!

Anglo American are far too cheap right now and the mining sector is just beginning to enjoy an uplift in prices and expectations that falling rates coupled with tightness in supply of key commodities will drive up prices in the years ahead.

Not keen on giving away my shares around this level, we are still more than 10% down on the year!

Market sell off providing a clear buying opportunity here and across the sector. The price of gold has strengthened throughout the day and is back around $2,400/oz. Most gold producers are due to report on quarterly progress this month which should offer a glimpse of the increased margins we would expect following a $300-400 per ounce increase in the price of gold over the quarter.

Profits in the last half were $42.4m but net debt increased as a result of heavy investment. With the recent rise in the gold price the company has to be well ahead of internal profit forecasts now with the potential for an increase in the dividend.

All-in sustaining costs were $1,287 last time around and expected to be below $1,350 per ounce this year.

Fairview Mine's 8.75MW solar power commissioning expected by June.

Mogale tailings retreatment (MTR) project expected to reach steady-state production by December (50,000 ounces / annum).

At some point the rising tide effect will bring Anglo Asian back to £1 levels. Increasing margins thanks for record high gold price $2390+ and copper moving towards highs set during the pandemic.

You’re assuming several funds bought in with an all or nothing view of the bid. I’d suggest if they are acting independently of , which they should be, then their motive is to maximise their financial gain regardless of the outcome of the proposed takeover. The risks having been weighed, in an environment where all gold producers are rising in response to improving margins and coupled with Shanta’s operational and financial outlook, there’s little reason for those funds to dispose of stock below the opportunistic 15p offer, much less so in the 11-12p range. The only persons selling as evident by posts appearing here and on iii are those fearful of the opportunity cost of holding, the risk of missing out on potential gains elsewhere in the event the bid is acceptable. If gold futures continue to push higher and through $2,300 this week it only strengthens the case for funds to buy more gold miner stock, including Shanta once the bid has been rejected

Talk of this falling to 11-12p on knock back of 15p hostile bid is frankly ridiculous. The price of gold is up to record highs and ‘well run’ (operationally speaking) listed miners are seeing large share price gains. In the event Bidco get knocked back they aren’t going to dump stock below the price they were offering.

Let’s make sure to read the terms each time they put this to the vote. I fear one of these days they will turn the question on it’s head to something like;

‘Do you wish to vote against Bidco’s proposed takeover?’

Bearfoot - agree with you on the inflated sum Corica have demanded. In terms of production they have a contractor at reduced levels of approx 20-25% which is probably akin to maintaining a skeleton crew. Not clear yet whether impacted production will be cashflow negative but certainly higher cost while at reduced levels.

It’s going to be a costly fix bringing in new contractor(s) but worth it if it reduces the risk of a single contractor holding us over a barrel and improves the likelihood of Koroussa achieving nameplate output.

Feeling vindicated somewhat with Hummingbird’s strongly worded statement. Clearly there is a division that stretches back 9 months owing to Corica’s inability to meet contractual expectations. Todays statement by Corica may well leave them liable to a defamation case. At the very least it’s provided shady insiders a chance to buy up cheap stock!

Probably released post year end. The amounts raised were almost certainly earmarked for short term repayments and not ‘growth initiatives’, but the amount Corica are demanding could be far different to what Hummingbird indicated it would pay given the terribly slow ramp up.

Aside from this Hummingbird should still be making gross $10-12m each quarter at Yanfolia (Gold $2,100 vs AISC $1,500) and as long as Coris bank are comfortable extending repayment schedule I see this being resolved through a mediated process.

Agree with the poster who said the company need to respond asap to the allegations or suspend shares. There are sharks in the chat pretending to be good Samaritans while preying on their fears.

You are assuming the sum of £27m is not already known and accounted for in Hummingbirds debts. If that figure is correct it will already be included. The exact details on repayment schedule for it remain to be determined.

Makes no reference of their shoddy performance nor failure to meet contractual obligations, basic volumes etc. this feels more like a burning of bridges than a route to resolution in my view.

Would indicate the scheme to rob shareholders has failed! 15p offer won’t wash either!

We are waiting for confirmation Shanta is not now being taken over.

Have bought back in after such a long time as the lack of interest is unique here today while all others in sector move higher!! Easy to say we are oversold without a breakdown of reasons to accompany the statement but I’d wager worries over Karo capex will diminish as the PGM space returns to favour. Conviction buy with potential 20-25% in short term IMO

Sincerely hope the individual who sold here claiming to have found a better investment wasn’t referring to KEFI… an explorer since 2010 from memory, that has managed to burn through tens of millions dollars raised in placings while promising jam tomorrow and funnelling funds to board members, connected parties (no doubt affiliates within the governments of the respective host countries).

One step at a time, we shouldn’t wish our future gains away because of a derisory hostile takeover.

Singida mine has not even been producing a full year yet and we are only now beginning to unlock value. People shouldn’t be looking for a get out for a penny or two more, regardless of the boards lack of conviction.

The last time Shanta were approached for takeover we were pouring all cashflow from one producing mine into the construction of our second.

Now both mines are producing a combined 25koz every quarter!

$50 million revenue every three months with low cash costs and minimal capex forecast in the coming year!

So long as the company remains listed shareholders will benefit from the increasing liqudity value on the balance sheet

$900 million worth of copper defined to a high level confidence at Xarxar, not bad for a maiden MRE!

The caveat being “future production” is at least 18 months away even assuming they go through early stage open pit and can feed their existing operations. They need to get on with defining those early years project economic estimates and secure the mine finance.