Member Info for Bozi

Whilst i agree with the general sentiment DBW, you know that when a bid does land the narrative will be that it was always on the cards.

Only now are Rio trying to buy out Turquoise Hill shareholders for more Oyu Tolgoi. Looks like they have their plan for bringing more copper reserves in-house.

The question is, what is stopping these cash rich majors from buyijng the largest undeveloped project in a junior's hands with open pit satellite potential and more cabs to come off the rank? Majors clearly think that we're either overvalued (not sure on what reasonable metric) or maybe the presence of one stubborn shareholder/concert party is proving stubborn enough to bat off any derisory offers.

The problem is that said shareholder may lose a bit of power at the next capital raise and then again at the next AGM. I suspect we'll see one event prioritised over the other and the recent trading in another stock all but confirms it.

Question is, will it be enough?

Make sure you time those rebuys right you shrewdies. Nobody wants to get in too early and get their hot money caught 10% offside now would we?

Stan - i believe the original poster was implying that a fundraise will be needed if KAV stretch themselves thin and push too aggressively.

Whilst I'd be surprised if this is imminent i can't deny that it's a medium term possibility (say 2-6 months).

KAVs share of any Ditau work is to be settled 50/50 in cash and equity to Mindea.

Then one would assume the plan is to return to KSZ to drill B1-1 or B1-2. Add in any costs associated with ongoing workstreams at KCB and the current programme at Molopo Farms and it's not hard to see us below £1m and one eye on the bank account.

This is why some of us are against the Molopo option being exercised, even though it is being settled in Kavango stock. Equity dilution for current shareholders for more licences where a significant discovery is yet to be made.

What happens if the next Ditau drills don't turn up something significant? We'll slip into territory where we don't want to be raising due to painful dilution that will see the market cap balloon without any growth to our holdings.

Ben mentions the impressive warrant bank but given the recent weakness they're all well out of the money.

I must close by saying that I have time for KAV and what they're trying to do and I bought into the assets and original management. I thoroughly believe we have to be getting over to KCB, widely regarded as the asset with the lowest technical risk. Anything else could be a huge misstep.

Says the guy who announces he has sold a few days after he has sold and not been proven wrong to have sold.

I like it Sean.

Eloro - instead of letting it ruin your day why don't you take responsibility for mistiming your entry?

I did the same for what it is worth.

I'm relatively confident that Pensana will regain the traction they need as the year progresses. Today's appointment is the first stage of that and if anything, is a positive as it provides a further point of contact for all investors.

The bigger giveaway for me was the reference to the % of institutional investors. A lot of companies, after the sort of run up we had, go through a process where initial speculators (PIs) take their profits and IIs come to the derisked table.

What we have seen here over the last 6 months is exactly that.

The next stage is where the IIs make their packet.

Good luck.

So, Damers, your position was that you went self-employed and unfortunately we're just getting going when Covid emerged but due to the infancy of your business you fell through the eligibility gap in terms of support.
You aren't who the comment you disagree with was aimed at. You were very unfortunate to have to go it alone and fortunate at the same time that you could fight through. I wish you well and hope your business can go from strength to strength.

Just to clarify, my comment was aimed at those established businesses running on very low margins pre-Covid and having no retained earnings, savings or contingency pot.

You would think so.

I'm terms of deflationary cycles - where we're you in 2008/09? That was severe albeit quite shortlived over 4 or 5 quarters.

How did they offer 3m self employed no aid? There were bounce back loan schemes and furlough schemes running for almost 18 months? What became apparent to me if anything was how many small UK businesses were barely self-sufficient pre-Covid and then once the reality of the situation bit unfortunately that sent many past the point of no return. Value entrepreneurship by all means but not those pretending to do it, and unfortunately that's what the pandemic did. It found out the pretenders.

I'm not making a case for socialism by the way. I don't believe it works. But there's no reason why big business couldn't help small business through Covid. Both would have been better for it, and the country by extension.

But what has to hsppen first TheSlug if major miners are already less thsn satisfied with current valuations?

As far as we're concerned we (and others) should all stay correlated with metals prices, would you agree? As long as spot prices outstrip cost increases we're happy...

I don't disagree with your general point on the QE and but not sure how much wealth they have stolen per se. It's the poorest in our society that have seen UC reductions and the majorty who have seen NIC rate increases. They've definitely not gone after their mates, big business, the HNWs etc, which you have to admit isn't very socialist type behaviour at all. It's clear they are more central than you'd like but to say they're anything close to left of centre is just wrong IMO.

Morning all, just spotted a recent article from Reuters suggesting the big mi ing houses will be reluctant to splash their healthy reserves of cash in this high inflationary environment. One comment,

"The big miners, the likes of Rio and BHP, have no use for their cash right now. Their cupboard is bare in terms of options to invest in projects," said Glyn Law****, head of mining research at Barrenjoey. "They believe right now with elevated pricing comes elevated equity pricing."

Nobody can argue that SolGold's equity is elevated at just £650m, maybe £750m fully diluted.

Yet again however, the theme from this article is that all of the big miners think they can buy assets at the lows. We'll they've missed the last low 18 months or so ago.

We have to prepare ourselves for a battle here as nothing is going to fall into our laps. BHP or anyone else doesn't want to start the bidding at 25p+ premium it would appear. The AGM is possibly the way to engineer a lower starting point possibly?

Needless to say the PFS is going to be very interesting. Darryl is confident of a low cost mine and that will be intriguing, particularly in an environment where costs are climbing hand over fist.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/mining-companies-may-pause-growth-plans-amid-ukraine-war-inflation-2022-03-03/

The idea behind feasibility is to show robust economics at as conservative prices as possible. Is $5/lb sustainable over LOM? Maybe, maybe not. I'd argue $3.5 definitely is.

Completely agree with the second half of your post Addicknt.

To throw an answer into the ring for the first half, I wonder if they're going to be looking at $3.5p/lb copper and $1600 p/oz gold.

An increase from the PEA with a good solid footing on which to base the DFS. Cost reductions will be the driver.

Never too early Ship

We also hadn't pushed the Alpala PFS back twice CD.

Come on, in the interest of balance and all that.

Ditau drill plans in the coming days.

Not sure this is going to aimlessly drift at all. It needs to find a bottom, granted, but should bounce well.

I would as well tk95, particularly in light of today's developments.

Get over to the KCB and make the company. It really is that simple.

Jerry - I wouldn't have trusted the SolGold of 2 years ago to build this mine but the company a sit is transitioning, why not?

You state the company "can't" produce a PFS. Will you consider substituting that word for "won't"?

I find it hard to believe that a report, essentially a more sophisticated geophysical, mineralogical and economic model, in the main produced by third party consultants, can't be produced by a business boasting Kevin O'Kane, Keith Marshall and now Darryl Cazzubbo (and others).

I know you still have misgivings with the company and Mather but this is not the same SolGold, IMO at least.

TheSlug - never said it your political leaning is connected to your investing strategy. We were simply talking about tactics to try and gain relevance, if that is even a thing!

You accused me of dissing and condescending simply because I had an opinion on the questions being asked, and let me just state that both you and DBW bit despite me being quite clear that it was the question relating to the share price that I thought was most ridiculous. It's a personal bug bear, nothing more. People are entitled to not like my questions. That's how it goes.

I am at peace with the company being sold. I agree with you it is most likely. I had wanted SolGold to try and take things as far as they can and have a go at becoming a major. I say that because I've a balanced portfolio and could stomach a loss were something to go wrong.

Whether it's 100p tomorrow vs 300p at production is the question. I suspect it isn't. I would wager we're looking at 50-60p within the next 12 months vs 250p in 5 years time. Not quite the same R/R.

I'm seeing right now how parabolic lithium price increases is transforming lithium explorers, developers and producers. There's no reason to think the same couldn't happen if copper went to $5/6/7 per lb as current mines start to deplete and stockpiles tighten further. It doesn't need a sale of SolGold although I appreciate that's cleaner.

I take your point about life changing quickly but that doesn't mean that investing horizons should be days, a couple of weeks or maybe a couple of months at most? The rest of the world will go at its own pace and some things inevitably take time. The key as you know is to box clever, don't over-expose ourselves to these high-risk jurisdictions, etc.

LunchMoney - you don't think they helped themselves in what way? In terms of optics?

I'm pretty convinced that had the company RNS'd the pause via, say, an operational update, the market would have paid much more attention and we'd have seen a slip back into the low 20s. The catalyst that is those Rio Amarillo drills being materislly delayed would have sent some 'investors' who are more nimble and flighty for the hills.

Similarly, it could be argued that asking for an updste durimg a presentation could have prompted a similar change in sentiment, maybe not carrying the same strength given those ProActive seminars are mainly attended by PIs who actively manage their holdings.

The company did announce the pause in the MD&A, but this is a backward looking update that is 45 days out of date at the point of release. I would probably agree it was material news, but the company is seemingly allowed to make it's own judgement, and i suppose we're entitled to disagree if we wish.

The suspension of drilling does carry a clear upside here too, extending the cash runway that bit further, presumably post PFS. That will in itself reduce any upside impact of the PFS but presumably it has been decided to be the best route forwards.

You've nailed it at the end there Quady. It's just standard groupthink. A dangerous position to get in to, particularly when the leader of said thinking is so irrational, aggressive and self-centred.

My post to DBW with the 4 questions was perfectly reasonable and well-meaning. The 4 questions themselves were relevant and better examples than the "when are we getting paid" that TheSlug had the fantastic foresight and originality to ask.

And on a general point, DBW is actually quite fortunate he didn't set Darryl up for a fall with his 2 questions on the regional drilling, particularly in the midst of this market uncertainty.

It was pretty obvious to a few of us that drilling had remained paused since the MD&A, but being open with that sort of update, on another day, may have prompted a sell-off on the stock.

It's a good job people are holding on for the PFS.