Member Info for Boyobach

A disappointing market response to the good news re Sarta. We should have seen better given the achievement. But I guess it's all about revenue levels, reliability and backlog of receivables. G still under 3x Brent so weak by that historical measure:
https://invst.ly/szixp

TGP may just be about to break above the downtrend that has limited the price since the founder, and CEO at the time, resigned on August 3rd: https://invst.ly/szfvl .
Interestingly, that was also the date that a local paper ran a glowing piece about him which mentions ‘his ambitions to go on growing Tekmar’.
http://www.aycliffetoday.co.uk/man-of-action/30244
As he presumably had no intention of resigning at the time of his interview it does leave the impression that he was pushed and, whatever the true reason, it’s obviously been a shaky few months for TGP’s sp since then. Hopefully next week’s H1 results and CEO review will justify the recent rally.

With respect, you are confusing 'Buy and Hold' with 'Buy and Forget' - even Buffett famously made that mistake and admitted that 'thumb-sucking' over Tesco cost him $444m.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/mar/01/warren-buffett-admits-thumb-sucking-over-tesco-cost-him-444m
Being a long-term investor in a company does not preclude you from managing that holding, you'd be daft not to.

Thomo1968 made this point in the first post of this thread: 'So as long as you hold onto the shares, you get growth from the share price increasing and you get the income.'
I would say that that is all very well in theory but, in my experience, you must not assume that any share is a 'buy and forget' investment. Even if you delegate the task to some fund or institution you must monitor their performance. And with shares you take direct responsibility for managing them. The 'Never Sell Shell' cliche may yet prove to be correct but those that prudently managed their investment in Shell this year could have done reasonably well - some will have done spectacularly. The first mistake to avoid, IMO, is being an 'all-in'- 'all-out' investor - I think that approach reduces investment management to the level of gambling, whereas if you routinely assess the risks and rewards/penalties then you stand a reasonable chance of mitigating severe drops in sp, protect capital value and maintain income levels. 'Hands-off' investing is a mugs game - shares go up and shares go down, it's a fact of life and it's best to plan accordingly. I parked a large sum in RDS when I thought it had stabilised at around £15, turned my attention elsewhere and then realised that it was in a second phase of slower but more profound decline (from early June). I realised I'd have to take urgent and aggressive action to protect my capital value. As a consequence of actively managing them, I find my investments better placed now than pre COV19 and I've released cash in the process. 'Buy and forget' is the road to ruin IMO.

..... was a fairly obvious resistance level and profit-taking opportunity today.
For those who sold and fancy buying-back, the question then becomes whether it will cycle back down and to what depth. Of course, it may just take 1350 and start trading at the next level up.
Either way, for LT holders it's been a good run - especially if you've held onto your core holding, have some cash and can take advantage whichever way it goes next: https://invst.ly/syq0w

Today kinda convinces me about the flip-flop nature of G (also affects GKP I think), where investors in the sector will flip between oil cos. For example, it was fairly obvious that the two UK majors BP and RDS were heading towards a profit taking (resistance level for RDS is around 1350) and - hey presto! It happened. And I think some of those profits may well have got flipped into alternatives in the sector that are lagging - hence G and GKP both made progress today. Sometimes, as I’ve mentioned previously, I think the flip-flop happens directly between GKP and G. Here are the usual runners and riders since Friday’s UK market close:
https://invst.ly/sypd-

Anyway, whether I’m right or wrong about the flip-flop theory - G made some progress today towards its ‘normal’ price v Brent, which I reckon should be 150 ‘on the nose’ at today’s Brent price.

Brent, meanwhile got a bit ahead of itself yesterday but continues to be in the uptrend:
https://invst.ly/sypqk Does the sector follow Brent or does Brent follow the sector? Clearly there are times when that relationship can flip too! I take G’s guidance about the significance of $50 Brent and outstanding payment issues very seriously.

Cheers battleja - good points. Possibly more a 'calculated punt' than an educated one in my case - but, yes, it looks ok and the legacy O&G side of the biz potentially has continuing prospects too. Hopefully they are positioned well for the energy transition. It does look like the Oct 30th statement caused a few jitters and hopefully they will be calmed somewhat next week.
ATB.

Yep - I guess there hasn't been an oil co that hasn't broken out of late. And you're right - G very sluggish, possibly due to the fact it held value during the summer (whilst all about it dived lower). But, still, it should be at least 150. Let's hope it wakes up soon. ATB

Two days into the weekly oil-co derby since last Friday’s close and, for once, quite a lot has happened (https://invst.ly/sy5ey ) thanks to vaccine and US Transition news etc. OP too is on the up (is that due to actual supply/demand or pure speculation?)

G & GKP have been the slowest to react so far, which is slightly odd as OP is rather more critical to them than it is for the majors - especially given the KRG payment and backlog situation. G should easily be 150 now on a rational basis - but the sp of the KRI companies is rarely rational.

Interesting to see how the sector is behaving compared to the FTSE100 too. Time for that walk.

Looking at RDS v Brent (Green) and Chevron (pale blue here: https://invst.ly/sy4-4 ), on a realistic comparison through the COVID period since February, it’s easy to see that RDS is about £3.40 below where it might have been had it tracked Chevron throughout the period. Unfortunately, RDS diverged substantially from its US cousin from March 7th, otherwise it would have been around 1670 today.

So the question for investors is whether the large disparity that developed between Chevron and RDS since early March is fully justified - obviously, RDS cut the dividend and Chevron did not but, in theory, that should lead to a stronger balance sheet for Shell.

You guys just might get your breakout: https://invst.ly/sxybp
I've just acquired a few at 52p - I hope it's not going to be a dud. I see the founding family are off the scene now - is that a bad sign?

Brent is flirting with reaching highest levels seen since March , breaking above $46.5 (August high) could put it on track for $50 - a significant level for G. Rather optimistic to imagine it getting there by year end but we could do with some optimism: https://invst.ly/sxxvr
(PS Rangor: I decided to take a punt on TGP earlier - in at 52, might owe you a beer if it goes anywhere)

No worries FruitSalad, it's all just information and we each pick out the bits we think might be relevant.

Yeah - but look at CWR today, Rangor. Blimey!
I've checked out Tekmar - not entirely sure. Are you in it Rangor? The background in marine tech seems well founded through the Richie-Bland family business but the successive departures of both the father and the son James (who seems to have been a young wheeler-dealer who successfully ran the spin-off business that ultimately re-absorbed the original outfit) leaves a few questions about what remains of the legacy stuff and what its strategy and prospects really are. They've had a couple of set-backs this year, although the sp didn't seem to blink much when James departed in August but took a hit with Oct 30th statement - possibly because of the six month shift in annual reporting as much as COVID related setbacks.
(apologies for the OT chatter Genelians)

A very nice lift in RDS today, running slightly ahead of the rise in Brent and performing a bit better than Chevron: https://invst.ly/sxl8q

Today's welcome bump upwards seems to be entirely off the back of OP:
https://invst.ly/sxkdp
At today's G v Brent ratio of 2.9x the sp continues to be below its average performance against Brent, which at 3.11x has itself steadily fallen back from around 3.16x in August. On average performance, G should be 140-150p and, obviously, rather better than that if revenue and payment prospects were back on track. So much hinges on OP although quite why G mysteriously hit 175 back in July is a mystery to me https://invst.ly/sxkqp - I really should have traded that spike more aggressively than I did.

Fair point Nick - but it remains the case that, as the article you reference says:
'At 489.5 MMbbl, commercial crude oil stocks are still above the 5-year average (+29.1 MMbbl) as well as above last year's level (+39.1 MMbbl). Although the surplus is shrinking, it remains rather large (by historical standards), and the WTI price seems elevated when set against the current level of inventories.'

As the nominated point of delivery for WTI, Cushing gives a strong indication of that particular benchmark OP and signals the level of supply/demand balance in the US. When Cushing is full it invariably means that there's an oversupply of oil in the US and, by inference, more globally. When Cushing becomes less of a barometer of OP I'll pay less attention to it. In the meantime no one seems to be predicting $50 Brent anytime soon so I'm not hugely optimistic that RDS is headed much further - 1300 at best?

I’m starting to think that the recent rally in the sector may be running out of steam and have expressed as much over at RDS. For G the story might be different - with Sarta coming into production - but there is no sign of OP reaching $50, which is essential for G’s revenue to revive and for any prospect of overdue receivables and resumption of override payments. The news from Cushing this week was not good:

US Inventories Are Soaring Again (article):
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Cushing-Oil-Inventories-Are-Soaring-Again.html
Commercial stocks at Cushing rose to 61.6 million barrels in the week to November 13, up from 60.4 million barrels in stocks at the end of the previous week and a 39.3-percent jump compared to the same week in 2019 when inventories at Cushing stood at 44.2 million barrels.
The current stockpile at Cushing means that the hub is full to around 81 percent of its capacity of 76 million barrels, according to Bloomberg’s estimates.
In the first week of May at the peak Cushing inventories this year, commercial crude oil inventories at the site exceeded 65 million barrels, which was 83 percent of the site’s working capacity, according to EIA data. Between early May and the last week of June, crude oil inventories at the storage hub had decreased to 45.6 million barrels, but they started rising again in July, weekly data from the EIA shows.

There comes a point, when you've been very lucky, that you realise you are gambling a very healthy profit in order to increase it further by a relatively modest amount in percentage terms. However, CWR does seem to keep performing. I agree 770 appears to be a realistic buy-back level but I'm inclined to stay out now - although I'm not sure I could resist at 740!

US Inventories Are Soaring Again (article):
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Cushing-Oil-Inventories-Are-Soaring-Again.html
Commercial stocks at Cushing rose to 61.6 million barrels in the week to November 13, up from 60.4 million barrels in stocks at the end of the previous week and a 39.3-percent jump compared to the same week in 2019 when inventories at Cushing stood at 44.2 million barrels.
The current stockpile at Cushing means that the hub is full to around 81 percent of its capacity of 76 million barrels, according to Bloomberg’s estimates.
In the first week of May at the peak Cushing inventories this year, commercial crude oil inventories at the site exceeded 65 million barrels, which was 83 percent of the site’s working capacity, according to EIA data. Between early May and the last week of June, crude oil inventories at the storage hub had decreased to 45.6 million barrels, but they started rising again in July, weekly data from the EIA shows.