Member Info for Boyobach

So far the market reaction to the T&O looks more like profit taking rather than outright disappointment, although I'm guessing that the 12% drop in total net production from 2019 didn't do much to help keep the upward momentum going. It looks like regaining a foothold on the pre-COVID price range above 173 might take a bit longer after all. https://invst.ly/tidyt

Nice tables bunks (and I'm not talking about your home furnishings!)
March & April last year was a whacky time wasn't it? May there soon be more dates on the list!

O/T Rangor - yeah, I'm hovering on the sidelines of that one. It's at a tricky point chartwise, as I guess you're aware, and could conceivably break back down to 45, although muddling along 57-70 seems more likely. I just wish the historic management backstory was a bit more solid (less like a TV soap script). It's a pure punt isn't it? I'm trying to avoid those and be Mr Sensible! Ha! I wish I'd pursued CWR longer as well - never saw it going much over £10. ATB

Looking at today's price action, I'm wondering if this really is the bottom:
https://invst.ly/ti3d7
Somehow, I don't think so. The SFO are still digging it seems. Does it still relate in some way to Unaoil and Mr Warner? I get the impression the SFO may still be pursuing those links with PFC even after four years. If I thought it was over then I might have been tempted but the 10 year chart gives a fairly plain warning:
https://invst.ly/ti3l0
I guess that, whilst the SFO are still active, there's no chance of selling the company either?

I wondered if you’d certify it as a BSD bunks!
It seems 180 isn’t just a magic number for darts players.
https://invst.ly/ti2m3
Regarding whether the T&O will throw a spanner in the works: I might just set a stop loss. Ha!
Whilst a year ago I’d have been looking to trade a portion of my holding in G as it gets back up towards £2, I’ve now got my average price in G down to a level where I’m content to sit back and watch what happens for a while.
(Rangor O/T: are you still in TGP?)

What's not to like here?
The sp maybe?
How safe is the blue line? https://invst.ly/ti2jg

Yes, Twitter. I never did regret giving that up.

Just to add that I suspect that Hawkey now posts on another LSE board under another name. That's his business, of course, and no criticism intended.

Yes indeed bunks.
To be fair Astle01 pointed out to me here a week or two ago that tomorrow's T&O date was on G's website. I don't think there was an RNS - they used to announce it that way didn't they?

Regrettably, Tacotaco, Hawkey hasn't posted here since last March and not on LSE since May apparently.
I'm hoping he managed to keep it together through last year - a tough time for all and it isn't over yet either.

OK - the bands weren't thicker like I said - here's what I meant it to look like:
https://invst.ly/thy9i

A nicely timed positive RNS today seems to have pushed the sp back onto its upward path. It sets the scene for more progress tomorrow. Providing there are no disappointments, G looks set to continue into the trading band marked by the thicker blue trend lines here (roughly 186-205) https://invst.ly/thy4j

Cheers Sharefall, I think you have confirmed my basic mathematical point: I’m also confident that the RDS shares I acquired at £15 will eventually move into profit but, in the meantime, they'll continue to be a loss that diminishes the otherwise excellent performance of my RDS holding.

‘Averaging down’ does not magically reduce losses, it simply enables them to be set against potential profits that might later materialise from additional shares bought more cheaply. Some investors fail to grasp this fact and can deceive themselves into thinking that ‘averaging down’ is a sound investment strategy when it should more correctly be viewed as an exercise in damage limitation that increases exposure and, very often, risk.

In contrast, ‘averaging up’ occurs when a profit has already been established and further growth is anticipated. I know which of the two situations I prefer to be in.

When I hurriedly cashed in some of my riskier investments last March and moved the cash into RDS, my initial holding was at £15/share. Since then I’ve been fortunate enough to add and trade and am now back to the initial holding but at a net cost/share of 1190. Whilst this is something of a success, it is also a stark reminder of the delusional aspect of ‘averaging down’. The plain truth is that my holding acquired at £15 remains in loss - a loss that has simply been offset by profits made on subsequent RDS purchases and trades. Had the original tranche not been acquired then I’d be much more capital-positive today.

The simple fact is that once you acquire a share at a given price you never make a profit on it unless you eventually manage to sell it for more. It’s possible to sugar the pill by factoring-in dividends but that is just avoiding reality at best and value destruction at worst . Over the years I have sometimes found myself considering possible ‘average down’ levels before purchasing a tranche. I have now learned that this is a warning signal because I’m effectively acknowledging that the bottom has probably not been reached and that, perhaps, I should walk away and wait for stronger reversal signals to occur. Yes, the shares might cost more at that stage - but that’s effectively the price of risk-reduction.

In my experience ‘averaging down’ is a last resort which can potentially dig you into an ever deeper pit of problems, especially if you average down too swiftly and chase the price as it lands on every ledge of its descent. Sometimes it’s better to bail and watch from the sidelines until the bearish fog clears.

Here’s Brent v Oil Co’s for the last week (since close of play last Friday):
https://invst.ly/th5s6
It was pretty much back to square one for all except Exxon today which had a nice upgrade from JP Morgan and others this week. Much as discussed here during the week, some profit-taking seemed inevitable when G climbed over 170 and Brent started to slip back, which only goes to show that the upcoming T&O isn’t much of a factor for traders who want to lock-in a quick profit. So far, the pull-back has been worth up to 15p to those who would be looking to buy back..
https://invst.ly/th5y2
Any further slide next week will largely depend on whether oil continues to drift down further, of course, and it would be very encouraging to see G consolidate its position above 160 and to make progress from there after Tuesday’s statement.

Although I’ve pointed out a few times that the RDS sp is lagging behind OP in terms of recovery from 2020 lows, it should be noted that a longer term view of RDS suggests that the fall in sp relative to OP may become prolonged.
When viewed over a seven year period, rather than simply from recent pre-COVID years, the current sp is more consistent with what might be expected:
https://invst.ly/tgyup (RDS v Brent (green) from2013).
This is mainly because the sp did not fall proportionately when Brent collapsed from $100+ to $50 back in 2014. Hopefully this will prove to be a pessimistic indication but it tends to support the present pricing and suggests that £20 may not be immediately around the corner.

It's an uncertain time alright but everyone knew that December's nonsense was going to take a big toll. The markets are going to focus on what might lie beyond Q1.
Similar to its peers since the end of October (marked in red), RDS has reflected, and been supported by, the price of oil: https://invst.ly/tfn2n
For long term holders, it seems that the best opportunities to reduce the cost per share of a holding have passed, although there is still some distance for RDS to go if it is to catch back up with OP and with Chevron, which continues to represent something of a gold standard amongst the majors.
Much will continue to depend on OP and the external influences that it reflects. Should that slip back to $50 then it would likely knock a quid off RDS given the current relationship. However, if OP remains under reasonable control as we head into the traditionally higher demand seasons, I think the indications are that RDS will consolidate above 1350.

Anything is possible Roofer, especially with G!
Today's rise was better than most oil-related shares experienced and, although a retrace is possible, I'm hoping that G has captured the 160 level https://invst.ly/tf7d- and will trade above the blue long-term trend line. But if oil slackens off then I wouldn't rule out 137 - at which point I would probably add.
Given the firmer revenue position, I think G could be back over 200 in Q2.

It almost looks as if there's a flip of cash from GKP into G.
Oil is generally down due to lockdown in China, according to some reports.

Since early May 2020, following the mayhem caused by first wave response to COVID and the OP War, Brent has resumed its characteristic LT upward trends (marked in green) with the occasional breaks up or down between the various levels:
https://invst.ly/ten-b
As with all charts, there’s nothing particularly predictive - rather an indication when a change is occurring and suggestions of possible targets. On NY Eve, Brent started a breakout above the highest of the recent trend-lines. The breakout continued beyond $55 on Friday and currently seems set in the direction of $58-$60, whether it will make and sustain that range, let alone advance beyond, is pure speculation. However, for G, anything above $55 is a bonus following the last fourteen months of perfect storm: KRG cash crisis, US Shale over-production, COVID-19, OP War etc.

In moderately good times, G has easily managed to make 3.2x $OP - ie 180p at Friday’s closing Brent (ICE, March) price of $56.36, which suggests that it closed Friday about 20p below par given the improving prospects for payments, resumption of over-rides and Sarta production. In genuinely good times, G has managed over 4x OP (over 5x during a wacky period of ultra low OP) - but feasible as 4x may be, an sp of 225 does look very fanciful to me currently. However, it may start to look more realistic if OP holds and as the FY results approach. Anyway, G’s recent progress has caused me to add - which often seems to work better on the way up than on the way down, especially when you are already in healthy profit and have a useful buffer.

G’s performance over the last five days may not look that spectacular in the usual weekly comparison with its peers: https://invst.ly/te5ce but when viewed on the long-term daily tick chart it’s rather more impressive: https://invst.ly/te5cw

G has been on an upward trajectory since 9th November and, as I suggested earlier this week, has broken above the limiting orange and red trends and also regained a foothold on an historic long-term rising trend (blue). Remember when G spent much of last summer just under 150? Well there’s been no such delay this time around: Brent is 20% up since then, resumption of override payments is within sight, along with the possibility of overdue receivables and Sarta is now producing. Some of this will be priced in but, with uncertainty lifting, the price should quickly regain early 2020 levels - ie 175-194 (as shown in the chart). It seems there are a few reasons to be cheerful, as Hawkey used to say.