Member Info for Boyobach

I'm with ii and received the divi on the 14th.

Has the budget ever been settled by the due date and, more to the point, has it ever been fully paid?
Budget agreement is invariably delayed and payments are invariably withheld because of disputes about KRG compliance.

A moderately good week for G in comparison to the others: https://invst.ly/t6kw4
GKP is continuing to make up the considerable gap that opened up from March onwards as seen here https://invst.ly/t6l2j , with arguably another 30p to go.
Genel remains weak against OP, however. Prior to 2020 and payment issues etc. etc., G would have been around 150-160 with Brent at $52 based on ‘average performance’.
I took some profits this week from a tranche I bought at 115 back in August and am now back to ‘equal weight’. Thanks to trading and dividends, G has actually performed relatively well for me this year, despite falling from a high of around 195p early in January.

Why would a placing be required?
Over the two and half years since flotation, Tekmar’s sp (and market cap) has halved and may be settling in that region for the time being. Perhaps this isn’t unreasonable given the circumstances and trading environment. A lot seems to depend on the company’s ability to work through the present covid difficulties and respond if/when demand picks up and as competition increases. A placing should surely only be required if solid demand outstrips the ability to progressively fund expansion - does that seem imminent or likely?

Actually, that red downtrend goes back to early 2020 and forms an interesting wedge pattern with blue. Will it break up or down over coming weeks? https://invst.ly/t6enr

On a 15' chart, TGP does seem to be recovering from the glitch of the last few days: https://invst.ly/t5y-o
The longer term view shows the path to £1 might not be easy due to the downward trend (red) that started with the Board Changes RNS on 3rd August: https://invst.ly/t5z31

Up until March, when G fell to around 54p, GKP were priced similarly. But G recovered much more strongly, leaving GKP in the dust - I presumed his was due to payments issues and lower demand for the type of oil that GKP produces. I guess it's natural to see GKP catching back up, now that OP is over $50.
When I dust down the old comparison chart from 'Peak OP' of 2018, https://invst.ly/t5ykq , the interactive version tells me that GKP would be 165p today had it matched G's performance since 3/10/2018.

RDSb is up about £5 (60% from £8.50) in nine weeks and you are over 60% towards £16.50 and break-even CSDI1962. In the midst of a pandemic, an economic crisis, Brexit, US political meltdown and the aftermath of an OP war - seems like RDSb is delivering reasonably well for you? I haven't deliberately switched funds out of RDS but where I've traded it and RDS hasn't retraced sufficiently to provide a good re-acquisition price then I've taken advantage of BP's lag - as it seems to be running 7% behind since the Q3 results: https://invst.ly/t5qmo and more like 20% behind since early June: https://invst.ly/t5qrm .
https://invst.ly/t5qmo . Under those circumstances, I've already taken a profit - I would not have sold RDS simply in order to transfer to BP.

Interesting opposing - and maybe extreme - views:
Dalesflyer: 'i dont think this is a buy now or in the future, oil shares have become unwanted except for the diehards.'
Seeking Aipha:
'Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE:RDS.A) (NYSE:RDS.B) is a compelling addition to one's portfolio as it is worth $60 per share, but trades in the mid $30's today. The company's recent earnings announcement validates the decisive actions that they took earlier in the year to handle the COVID Pandemic. While the stock has had an impressive run in the past month, it still should be nearly a double from its current price.'
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4393538-royal-dutch-shells-30-return-in-november-is-just-beginning-now-is-great-time-to-buy

Shell, BP & Chevron all fell by about 2% today, Exxon by nearer 3%.
Nothing unique about RDS today: here they all are since 26th October (just prior to their respective Q3 results): https://invst.ly/t4r9c

It's worth noting that BP had been the weakest up to the results, having fallen further than the others since early June, and it continues to have ground to make up, as seen here over the longer period: https://invst.ly/t4rbb

Platts Analytics expects Dated Brent oil prices to soften in the short-term to the low $40s-per-barrel area, but move back toward $50/b by the end of 2021

Chris Midgley, Global Head of S&P Global Platts Analytics:
“We feel the current price of $50/b is probably $10 higher than warranted. Oil prices are up right now but it’s really on sentiment rather than fundamentals,”

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/global-oil-demand-rebound-to-accelerate-in-second-half-2021-sp-global-platts-analytics/

A company that doesn't have a clear vision and subsequently can't hold its team together is bad news for investors. Clarity urgently needed.

The customer base could be used to link into their electricity and gas supplies, oils, petrol stations, chemicals, etc etc.....

Seems a bit of a sideshow. I'm not unhappy with it in that context but Shell needs to be seriously engaging in 'big energy' - electrical generation, storage, transmission and delivery. This consumer stuff is peanuts in the big scheme of thing and isn't very exciting in the context of an Oil Major transitioning from fossil.

correction: '....especially if Chevron fails to stay ahead '

Gilteddge: …...since RDSB has now basically recovered to a par with the other majors, now could be a good time to make the switch…….
Do the facts bear out that assumption in the original query?

RDS is slightly behind Exxon on a pre-covid comparison (ie from mid Feb). BUT Exxon is arguably in a weaker position because it has not yet cut its dividend and investors will logically pay that price in some form or another (divi cut or higher company borrowing costs). So why swap from RDS which has already taken that hit and risk taking a divi or sp hit twice?
Chevron's sp has been stronger than both RDS and Exxon throughout - so the upside is not as attractive there, especially if Chevron stays ahead.
BP is the one that seems to be lagging - and, yes, that’s where I’m shifting my profits from RDS trades - whilst keeping my core holding in RDS, as I reduce my average cost per RDS share below £12. BP is the only major that IMO has more potential upside than RDS - and I'm already in profit there.
My responses are based on this comparison from mid Feb: https://invst.ly/t48-s

G made a slight improvement in relation to the usual group during the week, ending up in the middle of the field rather than last week’s bottom:
https://invst.ly/t3xl4
Since ‘pre-pandemic’ prices at the end of February, G has done moderately well - still ahead of GKP, BP and RDS- but it’s interesting to see how DNO has outperformed them all, including Chevron, since the end of October - when the majors gave their Q3 results:
https://invst.ly/t3xi8
Amongst the majors, BP has been the most sluggish and, relative to RDS, consequently offers the prospect of more gain to come.

Duff chart link due to a misplaced full stop - https://invst.ly/t3k1t

So Brent is around $10 up from early November and hitting, however tenuously, $50 - a level at which G’s revenue expectations should start to blossom. Yet G remains in the doldrums. Even with today’s perky start reaching 133p, G is a mere 2.66x OP - it’s past ‘average’ being over 3x. This chart is Brent with G in red: https://invst.ly/t3k1t.
With Sarta now producing, 150p should be the minimum. Time for a BSD?

I'm struggling to see the strategic benefit of this business to Shell.

G has been going the wrong way since Dec 1st: https://invst.ly/t2abh (compared to RDS as an example)
Sarta expectations too high maybe?