Member Info for Boyobach

I keep cycling in and out of CWR , Rangor, and sold on Thursday with about 60p per share profit on that occasion over a week. It then went much higher than anticipated on Friday. I always think it'll be the last time but.....
Thanks for the Tekmar mention - I'll check that out.

So here’s Brent v G, DNO, GKP and four majors since last Friday’s close, showing how G has been a bit sluggish to respond to the week’s vaccine news etc.:
https://invst.ly/swmp5

Against Brent and Chevron (the best performing major) since mid February, G continues to hold up pretty well: https://invst.ly/swmrd but neither G or Chevron are scoring as high with Brent at $44 as they were back in July, when G was generally trading up to 150, even spiking to 175 for no apparent reason. So there's certainly room for improvement!

§¶¿.5 % is essential these days!

On reflection, I may regret saying 'The pressure remains upward currently'.....
Throughout the various stages of the collapse in OP during 2020, I find it useful to compare RDS with the apparent ‘best in class’ major which I would say has been Chevron. I use this comparison to give me some idea of where the RDS sp could be if it were performing at its best. I've had a closer look at that today.

The thing to note here is that RDS and Chevron ordinarily track fairly closely and have done so since June 8th: https://invst.ly/swgx2 . They were also tracking quite closely up to 7th April. It was between those two dates that RDS went off the rails: https://invst.ly/swgv9 . That period includes jitters leading up to the Q1 results and the dividend cut. Chevron, of course, has famously not cut its dividend and appears to have no intention of doing so: https://www.simplysafedividends.com/intelligent-income/posts/3403-chevron-expects-dividend-to-remain-safe-through-at-least-2021-even-if-oil-remains-weak

A wider view, from February, shows the critical period in context: https://invst.ly/swgzu , which demonstrates that had RDS continued to track Chevron since it fell below £20, it would now be at 1500. Note also that, following the recent rally, Chevron is back ‘in sync’ with Brent. The more direct conclusion, of course, is that RDS’s dividend cut appears to have knocked £3 off the sp and that £12 may consequently be today's equivalent to April's 'top' of £15 given the current O&G environment.

I think there'd now have to be a significant 'global news' setback to take RDS back below 1090:
https://invst.ly/swe0l
The pressure remains upward currently.

Yes Char, the rally may well be over (RDS has not been alone amongst the majors btw) - sp's never go up or down in a straight line and today's price action does leave the tantalising prospect (technically) that it may be winding up for an attack on 1200 as the pull back isn't particularly decisive as I type: https://invst.ly/sw3ic
Whether it does or doesn't , the last three weeks have seen a £3 boost in the sp, which has been a good trading/even-up opportunity for those who are inclined to actively manage their investments. I certainly can't complain.

Yesterday's low was 1187.6, not 1206.
Effectively no gap.

The RDS sp has just about recovered to July levels, with this month’s performance making up for the steady decline of the previous three months. In this recovery it continues to be ahead of BP and Exxon and just about level with Chevron, which did not drop back quite as far as the others. However, it still remains well short of its spring-time performance relative to OP and the FTSE100 so it’s reasonable to expect that there may be more upside to come.
https://invst.ly/svmki .
If RDS captures and holds 1200 then there doesn’t seem much, in technical terms, to stop it trading up to 1270 or even 1300, although it must be remembered that the prospective yield would then have fallen back to around 4%:
https://invst.ly/svnh7
GLA

about 4p
https://genelenergy.com/investor-relations/dividend-information/#:~:text=The%20Board%20is%20recommending%20no,%3A%2015%C2%A2%20per%20share).

Just to add that I think that G will be much more sensitive to OP if/when Brent approaches $50 because it not only has a direct influence on production revenue but also a significant bearing upon the payment of backlog and resumption of override payments. Until OP reaches $50 G is just ticking over.

Hi Tartine.
G is lagging the others this week, where there was something of a boost which seemed to be linked to the second vaccine news rather than OP (15’ view v Brent):
https://invst.ly/svfru
I guess that’s the price of its relative stability over the last month or two.
Here it is against the majors & Brent since Sept 1st. (daily view):
https://invst.ly/svfuv

this was a weird rally indeed…..

Yes, Cedars. Here’s RDS (candles), BP (yellow), Exxon (purple) and Brent (green) for today:
https://invst.ly/sv8yx
The RDS rally occurred between 15.00 and close of play (before the end of day auction) and was preceded by a dip of about 12p. It does not appear to be OP related, was concurrent with a rally in BP and Exxon. The latter has since dropped back slightly.

Yes indeed Barrie - I’m not sure quite what happened today as Brent (LCO) was going the opposite way. Here’s 15’ view of RDS against the usual sp’s and Brent since just before the Q3 results: https://invst.ly/sv4rs
Chevron went ex-div today which explains why it didn’t join the charge immediately.
RDS over the longer term (since early June) looking better by the day:
https://invst.ly/sv54t
Forget 1160 - 1200 is hopefully the next prize.
I’ve had to readjust my rule of thumb for RDS to 1130 +/- 20p per $1 move in Brent from $40.

I thinks it's a bit early to say you were wrong Char - recent news has been promising and has had a positive effect on the sp. All well and good but this has a very long way to run - hence the fact that I locked-in some gains again today, having recycled one trading tranche. So, whilst I'm optimistic I also remain prepared for a pull-back if the market and/or OP turns. GL

Meanwhile the Moderna vaccine news has had a more reserved response so far- which is probably a good thing unless you are a trader - in which case you’d be looking for more of a spike. Nevertheless, I took my 50p+ net profit from the tranche I sold prior to ex-div and reacquired for around 1112. The last four days have been kind to me, with the increased volatility on a steadily rising trend providing a good environment to improve my risk exposure v overall cost per share.
15’ view: https://invst.ly/sukzg
Let’s hope for consolidation above 1160.

During November, the Q3 results together with an arguably hyped reaction to news of the first promising vaccine have boosted RDS’ sp from the 845-930 range to 1060-1160. Of this, the boost taking it from 1000 to over 1060 appears to have been an immediate reaction to ‘news’ whilst above 1060 appears to be more off the back of a firmer market and OP :
https://invst.ly/suixm
There are signs today of RDS testing the resistance at 1160 but this seems to be linked to a firming of OP and the general market. Conquering and holding 1160 would be a significant step for RDS: https://invst.ly/suiwz

Fugu: The shares went ex-dividend last Thursday.
Next ex-div is Feb 18th - so plenty of time before that one.

After the rapid rise on Monday its been a fairly steady week for RDS: remaining ahead of BP, Chevron and Exxon in terms of Q4 performance since 26th October:
https://invst.ly/sts9n

BP has caught up somewhat following its relatively poorer performance during Q3, a period during which BP lost the edge it had built up over RDS during the the first half of the year : https://invst.ly/stseb

Of the four companies since the beginning of 2020, Chevron stands out as the leader, about 30% down, with RDS, Exxon and BP all near 50% down: https://invst.ly/stsl8

RDS’ sp is now consistent with a basic sp of about 1050 for Brent at $40/ bbl +/- 20p per $1/bbl variation. Rebase dates are bottom left of each chart.

I agree with a lot of your points Char. It's partly why I expected more of a pull back today.
I doubt that we've seen the last of the lockdowns.
However, I think 1060 could be the furthest RDS will drop from here but the situation clearly remains fragile.

Biden will be softer on Iran and they'll continue to export oil to China, perhaps less covertly.
It certainly won't help to lift OP but a general increase in world trade will do that.
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Chinese-Data-Shows-Beijing-Continues-Iranian-Oil-Imports.html