Member Info for Boyobach

But a tidy profit?
They [CWR] are moving towards 'mass manufacturing' - will keep watching but do wonder if it's ahead of itself now.
Also keeping an eye on Tekmar.
Got to find something to do as watching G is like the proverbial paint drying....

Useful comments Casapinos - thanks.
I'm out at the moment but watching closely.

Bimmer: Caitlin’s response is brief and succinct: ‘wishful thinking’ and dreaming are not effective investment strategies.

As I understand it, following your ‘premature’ trade, you currently hold 1000 RDS at a net average price of 730? What’s bad about that? Back in July you thought 11.80 was a good price.
Even if you buy another 1000 at Friday’s price (not that I’m necessarily recommending that you do) your overall average for 2000 shares would apparently be just 1040 per share by my reckoning. Hardly a bad-luck story. How much difference in average cost per share would waiting for 12.80 make - around 35p (3.4%) possibly?

Investments need to be managed based on reality. Yes, it is possible that RDS will retreat to 1180 (or even 890) but do current circumstances and trends make that look likely?
Is Brexit really a major factor for RDS (or HSBC for that matter) ? And if it does retreat to 1180 what then? Such a drop might not stop there.

The trajectory for Brent doesn't look certain for $50 average in Q1 unless the price stays in or above the top pair of green channels here: https://invst.ly/t1my2 . That is basically the track it was on in June through to the end of August and, hopefully, recent optimism, based largely on vaccine availability, will be sufficient to keep it buoyant.

If Brent does continue upwards, with WTI only $3 behind it, the question is not so much about OPEC+ but about US Shale. The issue there could be the DUCs (Drilled but Uncompleted) wells. I recall that there are a substantial number of these where the costs have largely been sunk but no return has yet been generated. The trigger point for bringing these to production is probably not much further up the price curve - indeed, may already have been reached in some cases. My recollection is that there is sufficient resource in the DUCs to sustain US production at relatively low OP for many months before more serious cap-ex for the drilling of new wells is needed to maintain production levels. So, irrespective of OPEC+, I’d anticipate a flattening off for OP in the low $50s, unless demand really does pick up.

Since Q3 results week and the start of their respective recoveries, RDS is leading the rest of the pack (BP, Chevron, Exxon) although it’s worth remembering that RDS was next to bottom when viewed from the start of the collapse back in late February with BP taking the wooden spoon.
https://invst.ly/t1l7g

I added heavily at around £9 and took healthy profits from that at £11.70, leaving my long-term core holding in better shape and back in the black today. Meanwhile, BP has lagged RDS and this week’s retrace gave me an opportunity to use some of the RDS proceeds there as RDS was not going to drop back to an attractive re-entry level and the noticeable discrepancy between RDS and BP seemed to offer an interesting play. So far so good....
View of RDS v BP, Chevron, Exxon & Brent since Feb: https://invst.ly/t1lha , note that BP was leading RDS during August yet the position reversed during October.

Ha! Yes indeed Tartine - every $ counts. Remember the days when they were separated by around $10 ?

Here are the usual Oil Co runners and riders v Brent and the FTSE100 since last Friday’s close:
https://invst.ly/t1frp
A pretty dismal week for G: down over 4% whilst GKP and DNO are up 3.75 and 5.7% respectively. Here’s a comparison with Chevron and Brent since late Feb: https://invst.ly/t1fue
G has been slipping of late - currently about 20p below par by my reckoning. Not much sign of Santa rally here yet.

Ha! Thought so...
If only it were that straightforward eh? Welcome to G and Good Luck !

'.....there'll be a quick BACS transfer in our favour for the full amount, job done'
You are new to G aren't you legache?

A correction to my earlier post which said: 'Investors will want to see the outstanding $130m from this year before getting too enthused.'
The outstanding amount is $145m (from the November T&O update) as quoted here:
$145 million outstanding from the Kurdistan Regional Government ('KRG'), of which $121 million owed for production from November 2019 to February 2020, and $24 million in suspended override payments

We don't have exact criteria as far as I'm aware Bunks. This was in the H1 report (August) relating to unpaid receivables of $121m (NB this excludes unpaid overrides, which the November T&O put at $24m ) :
' there has been an impairment of $34.9 million to the $120.8 million nominal value of receivables owed by the KRG for sales made in the four months from November 2019 to February 2020. The net present value has been estimated for accounting purposes based on the initial communication from the KRG, which indicates repayment would commence once oil price is above $50/bbl. However, the mechanism for, and pace of, repayment has not yet been agreed, and Genel expects to receive the nominal balance owed of $120.8 million in full.'

ICE front month (Feb21) almost making 49.8 - up a full $1.... so, yes, it looks like $50 will be reached this year after all. Very good news for G. Let's hope it consolidates above this level.

Companies like GKP and GENEL are still significantly down YTD. ...
You ain't kidding as far as GKP is concerned (blue here against G - nearly double the hit): https://invst.ly/t12xj

I just can't get too enthusiastic Legache but hope you are right.

An OPEC+ production increase isn't good but does it matter as far as G is concerned? If OPEC+ doesn't kill any significant rise in OP then the US producers will. Just wake me up when Brent reaches and stays above $50, because until then G is probably stuck below 150p. G may have made it to 175 on a fluke rise 13 months ago but Brent was over $60 and the KRI were up to date with payments at that point. Even when Brent makes $50+ it’ll take the KRI months (rather optimistic IMV) to get payments back on track. Investors will want to see the outstanding $130m from this year before getting too enthused. Meanwhile Russia will be happy to keep Brent below $50 if that’s what it takes to stifle US production. Who is really keeping the lid on OP - Russia or the US?

NY Times article re OPEC+:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/03/business/opec-russia-oil-production.html
OPEC and other oil-producing nations led by Russia….reached a compromise on Thursday to modestly increase production in January.
But the talks revealed strains in the unwieldy group….These tensions could make it more difficult for the producers to stay in line with production targets as the global economy recovers in the coming months.
Under the agreement, members of the Organization….will increase production by 500,000 barrels a day in January and, potentially, by a similar amount in the following months. The increase, less than 1 percent of the global oil market, comes while demand is still under pressure from the impact of the coronavirus pandemic.
The group will also hold monthly meetings to sign off on further adjustments.

Much is made of G's low cost of production but in reality OP must be above $50 for the KRI to make deferred payments (approx $131m including unpaid overrides) and to resume ongoing overrides. This might explain G's recent rise with Brent and the drop back as it became apparent that $50 was unlikely to be reached. Chart is G v 3xBrent - when is performing well then it is above the green (Brent) line: https://invst.ly/t0t9p .

You must be happy after today's statement Rangor? Well done!

Yeah, I guess it's much as expected. April, August and September payments were better, averaging $11m across the three.
It's about half what the typical monthly production was worth in 2019 which was further boosted, of course, by override payments of typically $7-8m monthly
Total for the year looks like it might come in at around $170m, with payments for the four months Nov19-Feb20 deferred and no resumption of overrides since the payment for Oct 19 production (all according to my notes- so accuracy not guaranteed!).
Meanwhile the rally in OP seems to have stopped short of reaching $50: https://invst.ly/s--03 as OPEC dithers:
'Members adjourned a videoconference after a first day of deliberations Monday ended without an agreement. They also put off from Tuesday to Thursday a meeting with non-OPEC oil producers like Russia, who have been coordinating their actions with the cartel in recent years to increase their influence.'
https://www.crossroadstoday.com/i/opec-talks-on-production-hit-snag-as-pandemic-clouds-outlook/

....I'm glad G can be a bit slow to react!
https://invst.ly/s-heb

Given some of the uncertainties leading up to Tuesday and the HY21 Results, I decided to take my profits on Friday. The change in the FY date suggests to me that progress could be quite slow until well into 2021.

I owe you that beer - Bottled-out and decided to take my healthy profits of 25% after just three days as I think the H1 news for TGP next week could go either way and the CEO departure smells a bit. Will continue to watch.

A couple of things on this thread made me pause for thought - Bimmer, like myself and others, potentially looking out for an RDS re-entry price that might not be repeated and someone else mentioning that Barclays expects BP, apparently their top pick, to go up over 50 -60 per cent in 2021.

I usually only use BP as a performance check against RDS but have noticed that, whilst RDS has already recovered to July levels, BP, shown here v RDS (brown): https://invst.ly/s-3cy , has only recovered to its September levels and potentially still has about 50p to go in order to catch up with RDS today - which would represent very nearly 40% of that Barclays upside. Having taken some healthy profits whilst reducing my ‘overweight’ RDS position recently, I find myself wondering why I shouldn’t park that cash in BP for a while.