Member Info for Boyobach

Ah! The proud Mancunian heritage of the Guardian - a fine paper, beloved by all my teachers I recall, but sometimes prone to typesetting problems as a broadsheet. Those were the days!

Amongst all the zombie gloom, like Graundian articles that tell us what we already know, it’s sometimes good to ponder an optimistic view - even if that might seem a bit fanciful. RDS has recently shown signs of coming out from the downtrend of the last few months and, whilst that might just be in the form of flat-lining above 890, recent price action has shown a tendency to pull upwards between the drops. This is a switch from the prevailing pattern since June. It is also true, of course, that RDS remains sensitive to OP and the $0.7 fall in Brent since Friday’s market close isn’t going to help the sp on Monday morning, perhaps pushing the price back to 920 assuming no other factors. Much also depends on this week’s Q3 Results following previous guidance.
As trends pivot it’s not always easy to spot when it happens but it can be fun trying:
https://invst.ly/skvdn

Not great to have too much in one company does anyone here .... think BP is worth investing in also?
My view, Grippa, would be that RDS and BP are so similar that they offer no diversity. If your first point is correct (and only you know the answer to that) then you'd be correct, in my view, to invest elsewhere but - in general terms - if RDS goes up or down then, long term, BP is likely to perform similarly. The trick is finding an alternative that spreads the rewards and risk, or tends to move in contra fashion.
For me RDS/BP is a straight either/or decision - almost a flip of a coin, although I'm sure many would hotly dispute that last bit.

Cheers - and GL.

As the week draws to a close there’s little overall change for RDS since the end of last week.
Brent is down about $0.6 and RDS is down about 7p - so nothing much to see really.
Here’s RDS against the FTSE and long term leader of the oil pack, Chevron, over the week: https://invst.ly/skhkc
Despite the week’s volatility, today’s price action tends to confirm that RDS is levelling out at nominally £9.50. Of course, when RDS was at £25 a 50p shift in sp only represented 2%, nowadays it’s over 5% - so I guess it may be a new ‘normal’ for long-term holders. Here’s RDS v Brent, Chevron, Exxon and BP over the last five months - this period has been the main killer for all of them in terms of sp:
https://invst.ly/skhm8

Nice if it works out like that DoQ8. However, China have a slightly different ability to impose lockdowns. Under an authoritarian regime they have been able to control it more effectively. They also control information more tightly, of course, so I'd treat comparisons with China with caution. Hoping for the best but... etc etc.

I wouldn't exactly say ‘woosh’ but RDS has continued to follow Exxon and Chevron, which climbed higher in US trading yesterday. It is also climbing out of the down trend that has dominated them all since mid June and has been flattening out in the 890 - 965 range, generally tending above 926. OP has been remarkably stable at an average of around $42 for nearly five months now - I believe that’s $4 or $5 above the figure that RDS assumed in its H1 guidance. Whilst I don’t see immediate prospects of 1000+, I do think that the threat of sub 890 is passing - it didn’t quite touch 890 yesterday, unlike Oct 2nd. when it went 6p lower. That may seem a minor point but it’s indicative in my view. https://invst.ly/skahy

Quite right JollySpec.
If it breaks below 890 then the next support could be much further down.
Chartists are no better than weather forecasters, Barrieprov - there are trends, models and history - dealing with probabilities is one thing, trying to pin down certainties is another. For once the cliché can be correctly used: RDS will be in uncharted territory if it breaks below 890.
RDS is not actually a falling knife - that phase was back in March. The current trend is five months old - more of a continuous pressure. You don't usually get significant bounces (dead or live cat) in these circumstances.

Ha! Alternately fawning and stinging, now Gollum (he of the first person plural) want's to ask us some questionses?

Yes Char. Your 'tipping point' certainly being tested.
Worth just saying regarding BP that today brings BP's fall into overall alignment with RDS since pre Covid and pre-Oil war position (ie typical 2019 levels): https://invst.ly/sjuqn
BP did not fall as low as RDS back in March, RDS retested that 890 low a couple of weeks ago - now knocking on the door for a third time. Both are now down just over 60% from 2019 - but for BP it's the first time.

The Facebook solar project is directly related to RDS, Craig.
Today's sp - including BP's recent fall - was discussed in the 'sp drop' thread earlier.
I see you've never actually posted on BP, joined LSE just this month and have posted three times - BOD (1) and here (2)?
Anyway, welcome to RDS, I hope you aren't too bewildered now.

coordinated and sustained....

My suspicions are more about why Big Oil started a very coordinated and decline over three months, which does not seem to have affected G too much and may still be in progress. If you notice, Brent fell sharply along with Big Oil between the 6th and 12th June - all quite logical. Then Oil recovered to $40 and more but the oil companies went the opposite way. My suspicions are based on institutional (Pension Funds in particular) need for reliable dividends at an 'appropriate' yield and the necessary steps to manage that requirement. I don't think you generally get pension funds investing in G....

Ha! It's a somewhat overlooked subject - our dependence on on-line services is satisfied by massive amounts of data processing and huge energy consumption. It's not that illogical for a company like FB to want to invest in something like solar power generation and, potentially, the related building block of power storage - apparently the sun doesn't shine all the time.
Bitcoin is massively power hungry, btw, - just check it out...https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-48853230

Jeez, I’ve spent some time over at RDSb board and I must say it’s more fun over here. Those guys couldn’t hack the G volatility - although, TBF, G has actually been more stable than RDS since the end of August. You may be worried about low volumes but Big Oil has generally seen double the fall that G has experienced since about 8th June, so maybe not a bad thing. That date is significant because it marked the start of a sustained decline in many oil companies despite the fact that Brent continued to recover to a $42/$43 average. I don't actually know the reason for sure, but have suspicions.
https://invst.ly/sjljc
The chart shows G v Brent/RDS/Exxon/BP - I’ve found it useful for analysing RDS but, hey, G comes out really well (although I always exclude G when posting over there). Chevron is usually top in these comparisons - Bill was there wasn't he ? GLA

Looking at Futures prices for the next few years, Rangor, I hope not!! Ha!
But TBF, I think Bill Higgs has his head screwed on on terms of Cap-ex. His alma mater was apparently Cardiff University - so he'd better not let the side down.
I guess there were production obligations to fulfil, however, so those would override any other considerations. There's usually a T&O in early November - so we'll possibly know for sure in less than a fortnight.

Just to add.... BP is clearly suffering since Brent hit a low on Oct 2nd: https://invst.ly/sji-l
The others do not appear to be tracking it yet.

Yes Barrie, Char etc.

On a very long term view, going back to Brent at $85, just over two years ago, we can see that RDS, Exxon and BP have performed very similarly. Chevron however has been much stronger generally, especially since this year’s collapse, and I’m not entirely sure why- any views on that would be welcome. https://invst.ly/sjiuq

For RDS the current dividend yield - around 5% - seems about right for the apparent balance of risk. BP, however, has climbed to 8%, I think, which means that a divi cut is perhaps anticipated? As others here have said, RDS seems unlikely to need to cut the dividend again, which suggests that 890 should represent a ‘floor’. For that reason, I’m not entirely convinced that Char is right about a ‘tipping point’ although I’d have to acknowledge that I’ve mentioned £7 as a possibility myself if RDS is perceived as a deepening risk.

I ask myself: 'Would I rather be invested in Prelude or a fleet of cruise liners right now?'
Prelude would seem to be a no-brainer given that admittedly restricted choice.

As I often point out, RDS tracks Brent except when it doesn't - in the absence of other influences, variations in OP can start to become apparent in the sp, often to the tune of around 20-25p per $1. It's not a precise link, of course.
It's plainly evident here for RDS and BP, not yet for Chevron as the US market is closed: https://invst.ly/sje1-