Member Info for Boyobach

Correction:.....because the rise from 890 over the previous six days was ultimately worth around 90p ....

It would very much depend on the reason for the rise to the $47 average, Grippa.
If the extra $4 on oil was merely due to reduction of supply then I think it might only be worth £1 directly on the underlying sp - assuming RDS volumes and market share were maintained. But if it were the result of an increase in demand caused by broader global economic recovery, then the picture would be very different indeed. We need to remember that RDS is capable of approaching £15 with oil at $45 (as achieved in June) and that it’s fall from that level wasn’t specific to RDS - BP has seen an equivalent drop. Technically, there is also a gap to fill between £15 and £16. So if $47 average for the year (implying OP peaking at/above $50) was accompanied by the right market conditions then I’d say that up to £16 would be a distinct possibility.
I also echo Neversellshell’s comments.

Let’s hope RDS continues on an upward trend on Monday and perhaps break back above 1000 during the week.

Friday’s later trading reversed the price down into OP-dependent territory because the rise from 890 over the previous six days was ultimately worth around 70p in total whilst Brent rose about $4 over the same period (each $1 change in Brent seems to filter through to the sp at roughly 20p sooner or later when all else is static), https://invst.ly/sf5xn

So my ‘glass half full’ view is that although recapturing 1000 and the range above to 1030 is feasible in the next week or two it could be highly dependent on OP (itself a reflection of the market) and that the price might stagnate or even slip back without sufficient bullishness in the wider market. Meanwhile the inverse Head & Shoulders of a symmetrical text-book price bottom seems to be forming but things aren’t always that simple are they? 15’ view: https://invst.ly/sf5zr

It’s never really occurred to me about gender identity on a discussion board like this. Gender, after all. must be utterly irrelevant. Anyway, I’m quite surprised to see that my filter list is suddenly and disproportionately weighted by a couple of characters (not necessarily individuals) who make a point of identifying themselves as female. I’m not entirely convinced that they are for a number of reasons. But the important point I’d make is that women who take a genuine interest in investing must feel welcome here. It would be a typical troll trick to try to make it appear otherwise.

Hi Mr ST. Welcome aboard. 947 should turn out to be a good entry point - I certainly hope so for purely selfish reasons!
You'l find a mixed group of posters here, some genuine and some less so. Stay alert as they say. GL

Yes - Iraq would be a natural place for some of that activity given Shell's presence. Desperately short of reliable electricity, which seems bizarre given the available oil, gas and solar resources.

Re: Spacetomatoe - appears not to exist on LSE, a typo maybe?
Re: ‘I was not aware I would [be] scrutinised over every word….’
Surely, Emma, as an academic who is interested in consistency and rigour, your words are usually interpreted with some degree of accuracy? I personally find that accurate answers to inaccurate questions are not very useful . I confess I only scanned through your post - it was a bit wordy.
I see you subscribed just this week? That’s a very long and deep set of observations for someone just two days in. A quite extraordinary coincidence too - so many long posts recently from newcomers who talk more about contributors than about RDS and prospects for the sp (the purpose of this board). I think you and Rach or Grant might share a lot in common, you should make contact with them. I’m really only on this board to share chat and views about RDS, so I’ll just say cheerio and good luck with the research. ATB

Chart correction: https://invst.ly/seu9t
I’ve re-posted the last (end of week daily) chart because some issue with investing.com data caused a misleading and incorrect candle to be shown for today - price closed higher than open not lower, as shown in the other version.)

Ooof - what happened to G at the end ? Brent v the rest for the week:
https://invst.ly/setgw

Unsurprisingly, short-term profit takers stepped forward once RDS touched1000 this afternoon. You can’t really blame them with 5-10% profit to be had over seven days. The question then became about how serious the buyers were going to be: If they envisaged rising prices ahead then the sp was not going to drop back by much. The end result didn’t live up to the mid-day promise but it appears to have been RDS’ best week in two months.
https://invst.ly/set7n

‘You wouldn't be feeling the same way if you'd paid 1890 as I did!’...

Well at least you and I are closer to break-even than we were a week ago, Briton. Let’s hope for more weeks like this.

A good increase this morning and unaided by Brent - so, in that sense, a real positive. So far it's doing better than BP too, which indicates that this might be company specific. Let's hope it continues into US trading and the later afternoon. A £1 gain over the week is very encouraging progress - just 10 weeks to go to twenty quid then? I wish !

Encouraging moves this morning. https://invst.ly/semkk

From: https://www.tradinghours.com/exchanges/lse/trading-hours ......

The London Stock Exchange is open for the following [extended hours] trading sessions:

Opening Auction from 7:00 AM to 8:00 AM
Closing Auction from 4:30 PM to 4:35 PM
Post Close from 4:40 PM to 5:15 PM

Hi Emma - my post was not an outlook. It was specifically about the price action over recent days and the attached chart, which showed that during that particular period the price had moved in line with OP - there was little if any divergence due to other factors, such as the ones you mention. So, if Brent were to fall back at this stage the sp would be likely to track it. If we see some divergence - hopefully to the positive - then it will indicate that other factors are influencing the price as you suggest.

Good to see RDS move up to 960 since last Friday even if this is mainly off the back of Brent (green here).
https://invst.ly/sefnd
The obvious problem with this rather limited progress is that if OP fell back to $39 (last Friday's level) then the odds are that RDS would retrace to 890, which is a bit disappointing. To that extent, RDS is not back on the recovery road nor has it yet broken free of the four month downtrend that has set a ceiling on the sp for much of that time.

OK Char - but talk about RDS please. If you keep on about the guys who deliberately wind you up you'll join them on my filtered list. It's your choice to read and react to their posts and you don't have to. It's all very tedious for the rest of us.

I wouldn't dream of suggesting what you should do Grippa, other than to say there's nothing wrong with cash - invest it wisely as & when the time is right for you. Oh - and avoid piling everything in, build up gradually and stay risk aware.
I post about trends mainly but they are only a part of the jigsaw. Others here give different insights, sometimes positive and sometimes negative. Glean what seems useful and discard the rest. I find that it's often people with an opposing view to myself that help me see things from a different perspective. ATB

Crikey Grippa - I really don't know and nor do the professional analysts as far as I can see. I guess it could get back to its glory days quite swiftly but I wouldn't count on it.
Like most investors here, I'm currently interested in the wider economic recovery and. given that, whether there's a reasonable prospect of RDS bettering my break-even point. Beyond that, If it sees £15 by the final results for this year I'll be pleased.

Agreed Elementary.

Disentangling the movements any energy co’s sp from the relevant benchmark commodities is not straightforward. As you rightly point out, RDS is a major in gas as well as many downstream products and services. So a proportion of RDS’ sp will be OP related, some will likewise be gas related and the remaining bulk of it should be based on the long term fundamentals of the business, market sentiment etc.

Since 23rd September RDS dropped by 120p to 890. It appears to me that around
50% of that - 60p - was related to the concurrent fall in OP, whilst 60p was more associated with other factors. I’ll demonstrate this by two charts - one rebased to 23rd September: https://invst.ly/sea66
and one rebased shortly after on the 28th: https://invst.ly/seacv

It can be seen that, whilst OP is most certainly a factor and seems to be the main reason RDS has recovered from 890, there has yet to be any real recovery based on other fundamentals or market sentiment. To me, for the moment, the sp simply appears to be tending to track its core commodities rather than recovering in real terms.