Member Info for Boyobach

Can anyone who sold on this news please share their thoughts? ....
I didn't sell Tzap but today's price action provides a good answer: up to 40p overnight profit.
Tidy! as some around here would say.

Excellent post Briton.

The trend is only going one way (keep an eye on the lows for rising shares and watch the highs for fallers) 15' view:
https://invst.ly/saz96

Yes indeed Pokerchips.
The initial market reaction was that RDS opened lower for the fourth day in a row followed by a drop to 945 - below the most recent intra-day low of 948. The trend is obviously not reversing and the nominal 950 support is under pressure.
Brace! Brace!

Bravedog: Agreed, Tony was not the right guy for the job! I'm not sure the majors will bother with KRI but who knows
Best of luck whatever path you take - currently in GKP? Hope that's a winner for you. ATB

Tartine: Given the payment issue in KRI I can't disagree with you. I'm just sensing the possible direction (based on the Chevron deals). I'm not sure what my immediate reaction would be if it actually happened - it would depend on the terms, of course, but, as you rightly imply, it certainly wouldn't change G's risk profile!

Unfortunately, apart from the false signal a week ago, there doesn’t seem to be any reliable sign that the bottom has yet been reached, with the March low continuing to be a possible destination. 15’ view: https://invst.ly/sakfo
RDS recent yield (mid 2019 when the sp was around £24) appears to have been about 6% (long term holders can correct me, I’m sure) that would equate to an sp of around £8 following this year’s cut, so it’s really not surprising to see the continuing weakness.

Rational comments Tartine but, in reality, G's resources and infrastructure are KRI focussed, with the main offices in neighbouring Turkey. Incremental expansion of operations within the area seems to be the strategy so far.
Just an aside: Ankara Offices are nice, btw: https://officesnapshots.com/2016/01/22/genel-energy-head-offices-ankara/

Just to add this, in answer to Bravedog's query, from the Bond announcement RNS:

Genel has the option to call the outstanding bond amount in December 2020 at a price equal to 105% of the nominal amount.

This is apparently the $77m remaining after repurchasing $223m of the existing senior unsecured bond issue .

Bravedog? Well I never - you used to post on ii, of course. Hope all's well with you.

I assumed the Bonds thing was just about timely renewal. I can't see G doing much other than surviving until OP reaches $50, unless it can acquire something that is distressed but cash generating....

Regarding ShaMaran it looks a bit shaky: https://simplywall.st/news/is-shamaran-petroleum-cvesnm-weighed-on-by-its-debt-load/

Well good luck Marfthew. If its any consolation, my alternative pick, CWR, stalled and has hardly been a better option so far.
If UBS are right with their apparent £17.70 target (char333's post) then a few p either way hardly matters, although I'm inclined to agree with his assessment.

It can get a bit personal around here it seems - pity. I personally pay more attention to those that don’t get drawn and stick to reasoned discussion about the company’s performance and sp.

It’s too early to tell, of course, if 965 is going to hold and whether the sp will now trade in the 965-1000 range but the overshoot to 948 followed by a higher level period would be a recognisable pattern for RDS (15’ view: https://invst.ly/sa1wk ) . But was 948 the bottom?

The cautious - prudent - types will no doubt want to see evidence that the trend has turned. Sept 22nd provided a fake indication that will have caught many out but at least the 23rd provided an exit opportunity.

Well you can't complain about that ending to the week: https://invst.ly/s9bbm - unless you happen to be heading into lockdown, of course.

Ha! that green trend never stood a chance, of course.... back to the drawing board and the goat's entrails. Has 965 got what it takes? I suspect not, but the decline has stalled since Monday.
https://invst.ly/s9b2w

Pokerchips re Renewables: spot on.
Marfthew re Genel:
Yes quite an oddity which you've no doubt seen discussed over there. They just got paid and reorganised their bonds (see RNS) which seems to have provided today's boost.

Alas, intelligence and luck do not always go hand in hand.

Ooof Tartine - that's a tough question!
A lot can happen (or not happen) in nearly six months.....
If payments, including over-ride, are on the path to normalisation then everything will be just fine I'm sure.

I should perhaps add that G is actually underperforming! This may sound bizarre but the fact is that G is about 13p below its average performance against OP. So, if we weren’t looking at the others we’d actually be moaning that it should be 130p minimum, with 150+ quite reasonable. The shortfall from 150+ is undoubtedly sentiment and KRG concerns rolled into one. Here’s a daily tick chart where, on average performance, G would ordinarily be somewhere near the green ‘Brent ‘ line:
https://invst.ly/s8ydg

I think low volumes/liquidity are helping here: we appear to be down to a rather committed core of investors. There was a big push to 116 followed by an overshoot and consolidation back in April + May : it appears that many of the folks /institutions that bought in at that level did not sell out in the silly season that took the price over 170 (although they may well have traded). These are obvs battle hardened and expect a bigger reward. They apparently ain't selling - unless they sense signs of a more significant drop. Don't ask me what their threshold is but the price of stability now is the precipice that awaits the sp if they collectively lose their nerve. My inclination is to shut the F up.

Ha! Maybe we are being a bit sensitive to the fact that we are posting on an RDS board and don't want to be seen as ramping or de-ramping?
Frankly, the chart is not 50/50 is it? Just look at the way prices have been tested upward!
https://invst.ly/s8xx5.
Sure it could go either way but you'd be a mug to bet heavily on one of the directions in particular wouldn't you?

I’ve slightly lost track of which day you’re talking about there, Tantalum, and whether you’re more on the subject of COVID-19 than RDS.

Either way, as far as RDS is concerned, yesterday was not good - although it did fit with what many chart watchers might have expected (a downside gap bearish continuation from the day before). And today has been worse, with RDS retreating further, suppressed by the purple trend that has dominated for over a fortnight (daily view): https://invst.ly/s8v5-

It’s steadily slipping back to 965 and potentially lower, unless support materialises at today’s closing price and this rather unlikely green upward trend prevails (15’ view): https://invst.ly/s8v82

There is a third possibility, of course: neither purple nor green wins and the sp simply levels out and cycles around 990 until future prospects and dividend yield become clearer.
GLA