The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
Well the right never seems to learn. Liz is talking classic Reaganomics. Nice idea that now with 40 years of practice it has just been shown to not work. USA is the clear proof. If you allow the rich to get richer through low tax the money just does not filter down. You end up with the rust belt and projects where nobody can ever aspire to a better quality of life without relocating.
You Tory old gits seem unsure of what you want with Brexit, immigration and the economy. In order for Liz's low tax, pro banker agenda to work you need more open immigration. All well and good creating more business opportunities but because of the idiot brigade voting to close borders with Brexit we now lack people to take up the high skilled jobs. Science is seeing a net drain as all the EU nationals return to Europe where the funding remains.
I am not really left wing. More libertarian. I prefer minimal government involvement. Open the borders, reduce all taxes and leave infrastructure in private hands. Balance the books though. Only spend what income is coming in and the first thing to go is all the silly carry on around the royals. We cannot afford the pomp and circumstance that they had back in the time of Empire.
Liz is lowering taxes and hoping for trickle down. Richest and bankers are going to do well. I worry the pound will just devalue as she fails to balance the books and prints more money. That in turn will fuel inflation.
Those red seats that voted for Boris' levelling up are going to be very disappointed that the Tories have lurched back to Thatcherite values. A direction where the poorest are abandoned in favour of the richest paying low taxes.
Liz will last as long as there is no election called.
Both the Fed and BoE will meet this week. Both face the prospect of biggest interest rate rises in decades. The smart people have already factored this in but I still cannot see ITV finishing up over the course of the next 4 days.
Where will the bottom be for the ITV share price?
He uses 67p as his benchmark that the bearish market is finished. I think all reasonable people see the opportunity for this to go back to £1. Just needs leadership.
Yesterdays broadcasting was a reminder that we do not live in a true democracy. All broadcasters were showing the funeral live. Like they feared the backlash if they offered an alternative to those of us who would like to see an end to monarchy.
I hope the department of media and sport is handing out compensation for using private corporations to force feed the masses royalist propaganda.
Biggest viewing figures but no revenue. 10 days of lost earnings. I hope the tax payers are picking up the bill for this state mandated coverage which means broadcasters are badly out of pocket.
Anyway your 4 billion seems slightly out of synch with other commentators
https://www.investingcube.com/itv-share-price-has-plummeted-is-it-a-good-turnaround-buy-shares/
The journalist here says more like 2.58 bilion. Also says it is possible that ITV will fall to 50p.
Please ignore the rampers. They have been wrong for the past 6 years.
2 weeks taken up with the transition to a new monarch. Must be hitting advertising revenue hard. Is it mandated by the government? They have to screen pro monarchy propaganda 24/7?
All those world cup gains wiped out by the matriarch of the Saxe Coburg Gothas dying.
The obsession with shorts......Do they really determine the price here?
I would still urge caution here. This is THPeterLockhart on twitter:
"China has Real Estate worth $60 Trillion which is 30% of China GDP and Worth more than the US Stock Market which is 56% of Global Stock Market value.
Chinese Real Estate Bubble is Bursting and collapsing right now.
No one is safe from this"
Did somebody claim that the shorts were all being closed?
I will buy at the bottom and make 100%. As I stated earlier. FTSE100 still above 7000. ITV will fall in line with the FTSE with bad economic news that is coming down. Below 60p is possible. 55p is realistic. 50p and below is worst case scenario. Buying at sub 55p to sell at 75p -£1 in 2 years is an alternative to buying now at 64p in the hope of getting a small dividend in late November.
Dividend date is End of October. Plenty can happen in 6 weeks. Wise to buy maybe 1-2 weeks before for the dividend
World Cup is not the money earner that people here claim it is. ITV spend almost as much to air it as the revenue it brings in.
Liz Truss throwing 170 billion at energy companies is not controlling inflation. Printing money or borrowing more just fuels inflation. Energy crisis would have been over in months if people could not afford the prices. Now the government is assisting with keeping them high.
75p is a 6 month high? Good luck with that as we go into negative growth and global recession.
Somebody has to debunk the idiots.
Will ITVX be as successful as Britbox was? That was a game changer 5 years ago that was going to make the competitors scramble to buy ITV out.
More rampers living in fantasy world.
Solley cannot be talking about me as for the past 5 years he/she has claimed to have me on ignore. Must be talking about Rylidian.
Sadly the Tories have elected another dud. Makes me pine for Cameron and Osborne. They took hard decisions that were unpopular but were what the country needed after Blair/Brown spent recklessly.
Truss is an A class idiot. She will do more damage than good to the economy by printing more money.
The fuel crisis will solve itself by December. Reduced demand from China and other major economies over the next decade will be priced into energy futures very soon. OPEC were right to keep supply at current levels even if it meant a short term spike and set the media and most nervous into meltdown.
FTSE 100 at 7200. Well above its 4000-5000 lows during financial crisis
When the global property markets crash, interest rates rise and spending ceases can we expect ITV to lose a further 30%+ in line with the rest of the market or is ITV no longer in synch with the rest of the FTSE members?
18p off todays price and a real low here could be below 50p.
This is of course the worst case scenario but worth putting up here in the same way people have been mentioning the bid for years.
Dame Caz is on record three months ago saying that during an economic downturn she fully expects ITV's revenue to drop . Most of that will be broadcasting/advertising.
So buy this company on the cheap at below 80p for final buyout price. Strip the studios out and sell them off to the newer players. Then run the rest of the company into the ground rather than having to provide public service broadcasting. Rehire everyone under a new name without any of the commitment to provide news or other more onerous parts of the PSB remit.
Most kids would not even miss ITV.
What next Solley? Asset strippers buy this on the cheap. Sell the profitable studios to Amazon and Disney. Then leave the core broadcasting side with shareholders operating at a loss and eventually ITV has to be bought out by tax payers. Shareholders assets wiped out.
That is a worst case scenario. The rampers chat endlessly about best case but that is the reverse and equally as possible whilst the share price is this low.
If everything you predict fails to materialise. If you have been telling people to top up and buy when the share price is falling. Then last resort try to blind people with false constructs. Share manipulation and shorting.
In truth this fall has been obvious to predict. I said on Tuesday this is going to 60p. The CEO of ITV said this company would be hard hit by a slow down in the economy. Everything now points to a rapid slow down in UK plc.
DYOR people. Rylidian is 100% ramper who refuses to look at how the global events are shaping ITV. Decreased revenues and reduced dividends are the future here for a good few years.
Try not to listen to the board liars who repeat "top up" everytime the SP crashes.
Some of us will get rich here by buying at the bottom and then sitting it out here for a good few years for the recovery. There is no quick shortcuts here. It will take 12 months minimum to head back over 75p.
Jed I thought you had come over to the other side. You sold at 74p to buy back?
60p is possible here in the next few days
JG how is it a joke? The majority of media outlets are carrying the story now of long term economic hardship. It is not new, we just had a false recovery for the last 12 months.
Back in March 2020 when lockdowns first happened, Radio 4 had an excellent panel of economists predict the long term effect of the virus on the economy and they largely all agreed that the global economy would go into slow down on a par to the 1930s depression.
I know you boomers struggle with the idea that economic output recedes and people in developed countries as well as less developed suffer but this is the reality. History has taught us that it happens if you allow speculation and false economic growth to run unchecked. The China property bubble has driven much of the global property bubble which in turn has provided capital and encouraged reckless spending.
Wall Street Crash September to October. The 9/11 crash. Bad things happen to the markets in September.
Malnutrition and freezing was part of everyday life for millions of Britons from 1929 to 1936. There were hunger marches in the 1920s, there was the Jarrow march in 1936. Millions more will die needlessly over the next decade globally because of poverty. Boomers collecting pensions might have to cut back on the 2nd homes in the sun.
DYOR please
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/aug/28/crunch-time-china-tries-to-fend-off-property-crash-global-economy#:~:text=China%20has%20reached%20a,leadership%20and%20the%20global%20economy.
We are entering a Global recession. One which could last a decade. High interest rates stifling growth and spending.
ITV in the last short lived downturn 2008-2010 went well below 50p. That is the the real comparison. This company has not grown since then. Those 2008-2010 lows are the reality. This global recession will last potentially a decade and this time around we lack good leadership in the UK.