Why do people 'assume' the hedge is going to be covered?
The facts are that GL admitted in the interview that they can ONLY achieve 5.5 flow rate "at best" , but that is actually pushing the 'only' Compressor.
They have also had plenty of down time which isn't eradicated.
Any RNS by end of month (GL' promise) can only ever say flow rate is 'finally' stabilised.... at best.
But it's then 2 MONTHS of little/no flow and rest is sporadic at best.
So it's blatantly obvious that the actual average daily flow rate if you include Aug +Sept is going to be very low, poor, etc.
The fact is that ANGS will definitely NOT be covering the current hedge up to end of Sept AND have a hell of catching up to do to recover before end of year.
People are expecting far too much (typical rampers) and trying to 'Con' others into believing its sunny days.
But, time will tell. As I've said, it won't be until Dec'22-Jan'23 before we get any real sense of ANGS viability or even when/If Side Track is progressing.
I suspect a further share issue is on the way diluting the share. That's the reason GL mentioned about taking further advice in the near future. They'll need money for the Side Track.
P.S. Does anyone know 'IF' ANGS has even paid for the 2nd Compressor yet??? I don't think they have, so their finances are in trouble.
HUF: You are DELIBERATELY misleading readers.
GL made it VERY CLEAR that he doesn't see the Side Track coming online until Q1'23, and likely in latter half. He also was very vague as to when the 2nd Compressor would begin being installed and be online.
The essence of his interview was that we should believe that ANGS is capable of fuliflling the Full Hedge requirements for this year onwards. BUT, it was also clear that ANGS is having a LOT of stoppages which they clearly haven;t resolved yet, even though they have reputedly been extracting for a number of weeks.
His 'disucssion' of so-called bottlenecks and the 'technically' challenging handling/control of FLowrates, pressure wetc was also laughable as most equipment nowadays is more than capable of adapting and controlling such parameters.
What is seems to be saying is thtat the state of their System Integration hasn't gone at all well, and now they are "fire-fighting" trying to keep the system generating gas while at the same time taking it down intermittently to try to improve matters.
So 'something' is just not right here.
Additionally, the 2nd Compressor needs to be brought online within next few weeks (I previously noted that they really needed before end Spet) but it looks like we won;t even get a clear set of timescales for thhat.
All in all GL once again 'played' and 'skirted' around issues and timescales and just kept waffling on about how much money they will make.....
.... When things 'finally' get working properly..... but when is the big question.... and GL doesn't want to say a dickey Bird about any of that.
All "Smoke & Mirros" until GL finally comes clean..... once and for all.
Until he does, and until he releases the 'Actual' attained Flow Rates, it looks like ANGS isn't actually producing that much. We don;t know how often the rig shuts down for example and what percentage of a 24hr day the rig is actually producing revenue-based gas.
I suspect the actual 'Saleable' gas rates are going to be 'disappointing' for this month.
But... GL definitely PROMISED in the interview that he WOULD release the information by the end of the month.... can we really believe he will release ALL the 'real' information.... or will he simply 'slither' over the details by saying something like.... "Operations are progressing well as expected and ANGS is looking forward to achieving its yearly goals".... whatever that means.
But one thing is for certain.......... The Side Track is NOT going to be ready this year at all!!! So there goes any prospect of higher flow rates to reap the rewards of Higher Gas Prices while they could have.
Time to bail out again until nearer December I reckon.
Nothing straightforward then.
Would have been easier to say yes or no. But, as I'm doing my own research I'll be able to identify the trolls soon enough, regardless of whether they are trying to suppress others.
Hanoihank: Are you actaully trying to imply I'm a troll????
If so you aree utterly wrong. But of course have your opinion. After all, one wouldn't want to 'suppress' real investors would you?
JT63: The queries are to do with those areas I'm trying to gain further info on. For example what exactly is the 'extent' of the LG Chem license. THe RNS' and website don't provide 'detailed' information which may have been shared via AGMs etc.
But hey.... whatever. If people don't want to provide info then that shows how much the Board is interested in sharing. Which at the end of the day only gives me the idea that nothing should be shared either way. So be it.
MrA: What is wrong with asking others for help.It seems to me that you are really saying that you don't want to help others.
I'm trying to 'collate' information as the RNS themselves don't givee the full picture. For example they don't give Trial Timecales etc. I'm trying to mitigate having to not only spend more time than necessary but also (hopefully) help others.
But by all means why don't you just go on 'attacking' other investors. If you have nothing positivev or productive to input then why not stay out of it you idiout.
WRT (4) Other Business, I note from RNS' that "...LG Chem has the exclusive rights to develop and commercialise, on a global basis, Avacta's Affimer® PD-L1 inhibitor with Affimer XT™ serum half-life extension...".
Is the PreCISION product 'connected' with AVA6000 in any way (production, analysis etc) and does this give LG CHEM exclusive access to AVA6000 in South Korea via the agreement?
Thanks Hurst :-)
Hi,
Ive been in and out of Avacta for last year based solely on day/week trading. Finally decided to do a little more digging into what exactly their full piepline is.
As I understand they have moved into the 4th Cohort for the AVA6000 but this is only Phase 1.
Like wise they have the PreCISION product, which I believe is more to do with either supporting the production of, or analysing results.
The AVA6000 appears to be exceedingly well advanced in terms of its viability but I'm hoping someone can give me further ideas as to the following:-
1) Given AVA6000 is only in phase 1 4th Cohort, what is the likely timescales for completion of phase 1?
2) Assuming advancement to later Drug Phases what are the likely range of timescales for Phase2 and 3 (assuming funding in place etc).
3) What benefits does the PreCISION platform give aobve and beyond thhe AVA6000 drug? Are their any other drugs in devevlopment that are supported by this platform?
4)What other products are in the 1-2 yr pipeline?
TIA
Good that GL 'indicated' that ANGS would be "cash positive" soon (although soon is a rather lax term in his vocabulary). but the really worrying statement was when he stated that they need to get the 2nd Compressor and Sidetrack online for cash stability and reduction of debt.
However, there are two seriously worrying points here that everyone MUST have noticed:
1) GL originally stated that Side Track would start July'22 and take (best case 50days), giving online date of approx Oct.
However, in the FT interview he CLEARLY stated that he expected the 2nd Compressor and the Side track to be completed by ('hesitantly') Q1'23.
I am at a very serious loss as to HOW such a company cannot install and begin operating the 2nd Compressor in a matter of weeks which is my first point.
The 2nd point is as I have been pointing out that the Side Track was unlikely to be until end of Nov/Dec. But now GL is CLEARLY opening up the delivery date to slip into Q1.
So this means they definitely won't be able to push Gas Flow higher.
Equally worrying is thtat he clearly indicates that they are still having shutdowns.
What is needed for Shareholders here is more transparency as to dates for the different deliveries.
For example is the 2nd Compressor actually onsite or when is it going to be delivered by and installation started. I found the FT interview was 47 minutes of really just bouncing around questions and providing a rather muddy view of what may 'actually' happen.
there is no doubt that ANGS CAN make good profit, but they are just NOT taking the opportunities to maximise them.
So it looks like Q1'23 before ANGS really has an opportunity to begin really becoming cash rich.
y only worry is that by then, the Gas prices will begin to stabilise and fall, especailly as Europe is implementing their Power Generation Backup processes.
But, time will tell.
Yeah, damned MMs playing games and placing the spread across the entire Buy Band this morning.
IMHO this means they havee a big buy order tto fill and trying to push as many day traders to sell out to fill it.
But once it breaks 2.3 then it should ride up 2.6-2.7; specially given GL is giving to give LSE an interview. This implies he wants to calm the aters as well as being confident that he won't be presenting negative news.... only positive.
But, those trying to take 10%-15% profits from yesterday will likely feel gutted later. 0.019 was a superb buying opportunity for a decent return over the next 3-7 days.
IMHO
11p is a bit......'Optimistic' lol
As I predicted the SP dropped towards 2 then happily dipped down.... which allowed me to trigger my buys.
However, the SP fall isn't just about ANGS, it's a market sentiment issue. Energy related shares have been hit today, particularly with some very poor results (e.g. ITM.L prime example). Combined with other factors, the Energy market took a hit. The predicted fall ofANGS' SP was 'negatively' hit by those market factors.
Now for the Good news.
IMHO, the market is somehat oversold (and I'm not saying this just because I've just bought back in.... I've done precisely because it is oversold).
ANGS (GL) stated that they are looking to install the 2nd Compressor shortly. If it is on site or due this week, then in my opinion it should take less than a week to get it installed and tested. Then a day or two to 'integrate' it into full working order.
As I (and others) have mentioned, this gives ANGS a VERY stable configuration to sustain and even enhance the Flow Rates; particularly if they bring A4 online.
So, I see early or mid next week as being time for an RNS referring to the Compressor Integration. If they also combine that with A4 integration then that's when the SP begins a steady climb up to, and possibly beyond 3p.
So my view (for what it's worth is the SP beginning to climb again either Friday or Monday. RNS out Tues/Wed and a Spike upwards, with the SP going above 2.9-3.1 with only a retrace back to maybe 2.8-2.9 'IF' people take profits.
After that, the SP 'Should' stabilise until end Nov, early December... when it's hoped the Side Traack will be nearing completion... asuuming ANGS actually begin the Side Track this month.
So I think this latest low (possibly going a bit lower) is the last dip before a more sustainable and steady SP.
But.... it's only my opinion of course.
Strangely, I bought 1,071,794 shares at 16:18 but not yet showing on the LSE ANGS Share Trade table???
Do MMs often withhold trades?
Johnyy: I didn't forget at all.
I predicted a retrace back towards 2 with possible dip below. Precisely on target.
Unlike you lot I do remember what I state and stand by it. hence why I just put in a big 1Million+ Share Buy. Followed by an 812k+ buy.
I know when to support my convictions. Lets see what you lot do eh?
What can I say.... called it again ha ha
I'm a bit confused on the reaction of negative SP impact.
The news 'does' infer that there is likely to be further trail progress, which means it didn't fail?
N turnaround, at least not for a few years.
The so-called increase in 'Backlog' ins't a savior at all, it doesn't cover the losses, never mind provide any real net positive income next financial year. The cash burn is too high.
My real concern is thtat it looks like ITM will have to instigate some form of Fund raising and that does not bode well (IMHO).
SERIOUSLY people!
WHAT is the worry about the warrants? 1.5M warrants is a drop in the bucket regarding any possible dilution for a start.
Secondly, so Warrant Holders may exercise them then, because of the price difference, seek to sell them quikcly for a quick profit.
You are all missing the point!!!!
Yes, it 'may' have a 'slightly' negative impact on the SP.... BUT... THat is actually the BEST NEWS EVER!
As WG818 has also pointed out (inline with my previous comment about the 2nd Compressor), the future Flow Rates can ONLY increase once the 2nd Compressor is fitted (which I personally believe should be quicker than some people think).
As such, a slight drop in SP due to any warrant dilution and sales is a BONUS to be eagerly awaited.
As I predicted, the SP will drop towards 2p (and maybe dip slightly). I'm personally hoping the SP does dip a little due to any warrants BEFORE news of the 2nd Compressor. That way I can buy back in at my target price and reap the entire benefit.
If you so-called canny investors cannot see a gift horse trotting up to you then it beggars belief ha ha
P.S. I'm not de-ramping, I'm predicting what I beleive to be a realistic AND very good opportunity for many.
I've been right about everything else.... but the trolls always dislike my predictions.... yet I bet eveerything that every single one of them sold at or above 2.8 in the last SPike and have either bought back in or waiting for a little further drop. Hypocrocy rules.
thought I would put this info in a new, separate thread as I think it warrants being separate from other discussions :-)
The new (future) tech I refer to in my previous comment are:-
https://newatlas.com/energy/mechanochemical-breakthrough-unlocks-cheap-safe-powdered-hydrogen/?itm_source=newatlas&itm_medium=article-body
https://newatlas.com/energy/aluminum-gallium-hydrogen-powder/?utm_source=New+Atlas+Subscribers&utm_campaign=6fd966d7d8-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2022_09_02_08_08&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_65b67362bd-6fd966d7d8-90094873
https://newatlas.com/energy/eat-si-hydrogen-generating-powder/?utm_source=New+Atlas+Subscribers&utm_campaign=092eb450c5-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2022_07_22_08_07&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_65b67362bd-092eb450c5-90094873
Happy reading
The new (future) tech I refer to in my previous comment are:-
https://newatlas.com/energy/mechanochemical-breakthrough-unlocks-cheap-safe-powdered-hydrogen/?itm_source=newatlas&itm_medium=article-body
https://newatlas.com/energy/aluminum-gallium-hydrogen-powder/?utm_source=New+Atlas+Subscribers&utm_campaign=6fd966d7d8-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2022_09_02_08_08&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_65b67362bd-6fd966d7d8-90094873
https://newatlas.com/energy/eat-si-hydrogen-generating-powder/?utm_source=New+Atlas+Subscribers&utm_campaign=092eb450c5-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2022_07_22_08_07&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_65b67362bd-092eb450c5-90094873
Happy reading