RE: Eroxon.com13 Apr 2023 13:17
Hi ndr50: there are a few sticky factors in assessing the future SP for FUM.
First to consider are the Estimated market potential & growth. At around 3.2-4.5bn market now, its expected to grow to around 5.8-6.1bn by 2030.
Note: estimates vary heavily though depending which reports etc you look at.
The 2nd important aspect is the market share across different companies but also product tyoes.
Around 58% off the entire market is dominated by Viagra, regardless of geographics (asia, north/south america, europe etc).
North america is (reportedly) representing around 55% of the market too. Though I suspect that will shortly change with rapidly increasing market in Asia, India etc.
Notably probably around 90-95% is dominated by likes of Oral drugs (hence why Viagra dominates).
So we can probably expect a few years (requiring intensive marketing) for FUM to gain traction into possibly 1-3% of the total market at best.
So my view is (as long as FUM rub copious amounts of Eroxon on their market campaign) they can likely achieve £50million+.
I know others will think this is a 'low' figure, but you have to accept that the market is well and truly dominated by oral drugs and the likes of pfiezer will protect their dominance with rigor.
As for the SP i would like it to climb up over the next 2 years towards the 250-300 mark.
If FUM can greatly improve their marketing strategy and dominance in likes of India, Asia etc then this will increase.
A 3rd area to consider is that America appears to hold over 55% of the total market too. So gaining FDA approval is a sure route to gaining what could be (imho) 5-8%+ of that market compared to rest of wirld.
I suspect this may be the reason 'why' FUM haven't marketed vigorously in Europe. I would propose they are saving their marketing funds to hit the US once fda approve. This makes more sense as rhis would fit in with my view that the American market (US & Latin) will give them their biggest bang for buck (lots of puns intended here).
If FUM do as I suspect then they could exceed £80ml+ per year within 3 years. Hopefully giving a (more realistic) SP around 400.
Finally, as mentioned, the vast majority of the market is held by only a small number of major pharmas. My view is that they will be 'watching' the progress of Eroxxon in the US in particular and, within 8-12 months I believe a buyout may appear.
Better still, I'm hoping the big pharmas are waiting for fda approval and will then look to pounce with a buyout while the SP is low.
It makes more sense.
Let's be realistic here too. All companies buy other competitor products so they can analyse as well as test them. They will already have obtained Eroxxon and tested it so they will have an idea from theirvown test results, not just trial reports etc.
With that in mind, once Eroxxon hits the US shelves, that's when we will 'potentially' see some very keen interest in the company.
As for me, I don't have more