Apologies for not being around27 Sep 2024 18:27
Had some bad news last week that has set me back. Cancelled multiple cruises so currently still on land.
To answer questions, I believe CUK UK has zero shorts, but CUK US has just over 3%. Everyone needs to remember that there are actually three avenues that make up Carnival. CCL, CUK US and CUK UK. The CUK US and CUK UK are the same, but trade obviously on different Indexes, but those are the shares that do not have voting rights. Then CCL is the main stock, which has just over 8% shorted, which does carry voting rights.
They are all in essence linked.
For some unknown reason, we seem to now have an extra 0.8c variance between CUK US and CUK UK pricing.
It used to be that you simply took CUK US divided it by the spot exchange rate and you got the CUK UK price.
Now you need to add another 0.8c to the exchange rate, so 1.3383 + 0.8c = 1.3463 to £., and no, I do not know why.
Various upgrades have happened, and in theory we should have a bounce on Monday, but note, we have lost £1.10 now through the exchange rates, so in essence a like for like to Christmas for example means we are already at £13.81 so we need to be realistic unfortunately about the expectations.
A £13.90 price now, would have been £15 at Christmas last year.
The "Word on the street" is that Carnival will beat results on revenue, sales, forward booking, but miss EPS, so if that happens, we will drop immaterially to what else is happening.
Hopefully we won't miss, but noting that last June we beat every line and we dropped 12% on the day, or something like that, who knows what will happen.
Let's just hope that nothing happens over the weekend, and the US Main Indexes want to have a really strong day on Monday.
Good Weekend all.
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