Member Info for BoringBernie

Ah, I thought I'd lost the text so started again. Apologies for the duplicate info and wall of text

a million in revenue from ff sd ii isn't going to get us in profit sphinx. look at today's numbers :-

290k revenue from ff sd ii gave us a gross profit of roughly 70 to 80k ( ff+ making up the rest. on that ratio,1 million would probably generate a gross profit of between 250 and 300k.

if we effectively* pay less royalties to dsm in 2024, maybe that'd stretch to a gross profit of 350k ? add in the profit from ff+ and you're probably in the order of 450k as gross profit.

sphinx

based on today's accounts, a million in revenue won't take us into profit.

back of a *** packet calcs suggest that 299k in sales of ff sd ii generated a gross profit of roughly 75k ( with the remainder coming from ff+ )

all things being equal, a million in sales of ff sd ii would give a gross profit of between 250 and 300k. assuming* we pay dsm less royalties in 2024, maybe we'd be looking at ~350k as a gross profit ?

add in the profit from ff+ of 100k and that's 450k. our annual costs are in excess of that.

bb

*the royalties thing is worded strangely in the rnss. it sounds like they'll drop over the next 3 years, but it doesn't specifically say that, but i'm hoping the result is the same.

he rns's also say that, for like for like sales and margins, we should be better off now than what we were under the aa, but we're getting less profit from sales than we received under the aa, so either sales or margins, or both, are down.

Well, finally, they're with us.

There's really no excuse for being so much on the last minute, but, putting that gripe to one side, they're better than I expected.

I thought we'd have had no more than 250k left at the end of September, so we're better off there, and sales in Q3 are healthy with more coming through in Q4 ( or a bit beyond )

Hope everyone's had a decent Christmas.

BB

Pixie, take a look at

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/equities-trading/business-days

Trading closes at 12:30. That doesn't mean the Interims can't be posted after time, but it'd be poor practice to do so.

With roughly an hour to go to the bell Ford could do with getting the Interims published. I dare say they could be published out of hours, but, if they're not published at all I think we'd be looking at a temporary suspension.

BB

Unless we've either added to our stock of FF+ ( possible ) or bought more FF2 from DSM that we don't already know about ( seems unlikely ) I think we'd have had between 150 and 250k net cash at the end of September. We'll know the real figure some time in the next 10 days.

We're hopefully going to need a cash injection of some sort fairly soon. I say hopefully, because I'm hoping we need to restock FF2 sooner rather than later and any half decent purchase would surely be pushing it cash wise ? From what people have said about the AGM, Ford seems keen to avoid dilution, but the cynic in me thinks he would say that in front of shareholders. Although it's a long shot, I wonder if he's trying to get some customers to pay in advance for FF2 and then use that cash to either get more stock from DSM or pay more a manufacturing run ? Admittedly, that's almost certainly wishful thinking by me, but if, as was apparently said at the AGM, he got customers to pay upfront for the FF2 we sold them ( as opposed to being on 30/60/90 days terms ) then, heh, you never know.

BB

it's not changed, it's the 26th, the date shown under "pxs share news" is utter ******, which isn't unusual for alliance news.

Pretty underwhelming to be honest, with total revenue for FF ( from DSM and direct sales ) down, but at least we've got some flesh on the bones wrt sales of FF in H1 ( Apr to Sept ) for this FY for which we're still expected to be loss making.

I'd hoped our current cashflow would have been closer to break even than recent sales suggest. The need to fund raise is, as expected, still there but can't, I'm assuming, be very far away now.

BB

I think it is price-sensitive, but I've been wrong so many times on Provexis related gubbins that this could just be another one to add to the pile !

Anyway, I've dropped IF an email, so we'll see what, if anything, happens tomorrow.

Would it be naive of me to expect an RNS from the company tomorrow ?

Although the news wasn't unexpected, we've beem pretty much in the dark as to when the process would officially begin, so this news seems price sensitive to me.

I might drop Ian an email with the link to the article in it, not asking for comment or anything, just for info

BB

Didn't our ex-MM and ex-Publican with a few tens of million shares say they were going to sell up ? Might be him or her exiting their position ?

I dare say they'll say if they decided to go ahead and sell up.

Nothing wrong with that BTW, we all have different views of timescales, possible exit points and views on other companies which may, or may not be better homes for our cash.

BB

Desoc

The same paperwork hit my doormat last week and my nominee accounts caught up a few days later, by which I mean I now have the option whether or not to accept the tender offer online.

If you hold shares via a nominee, there's probably something similar provided by your broker

Desoc

I look on it as being a bit like a special dividend of just under 3%*, but it's being paid as capital rather than income.

Once the offer is done, the company will be worth a bit less overall because of the cash spent on buying and cancelling the shares in the tender offer, but much the same can be said for when a divi is paid, which also reduces net cash.

If the sp rises to something close to the tender offer then it's value to us, as shareholders also diminishes ( because we could sell directly in the market at that price ), so it's worth keeping an eye on the sp before making a firm decision.

As it stands, for me, it's a no-brainer and, barring a major move up in the sp, I'll take up the offer and probably ask for a bit more than the guaranteed number.

My GDWN shares are held across a SIPP and an ISA so there's no tax implications for me on capital gains associated with the tender offer, but it may be different for others.

*3% is based on the 2.34% of the shares you're guaranteed to be bought at the offer price, uplifted by the 25% uplift to the share price that the offer is being struck at.

Bit of a senior moment in my previous post

first para should have ended "seems likely" rather than unlikely

Those trades were marked as "PRIC". Can't be 100% sure, but that suggests they were a negogiated transfer. They were definitely negogiated though ( that's what "PRIC" means ) and they were Off-Book, so some sort of transfer seems unlikely.

As an aside, the flags on the large transaction the other week were quite different. Again, it's not possible to be totally sure, but that looked like a sale rather than a transfer.

BB

It probably won't take long for the delayed 3 million sell to work it's way through the system.

Everhopeful

I think that's harsh on Ford. Yes, he's been well paid over the years, but I doubt he can afford to take a major haircut on salary until our cashflow is positive so, even though that might be the case in other companies, it's not generally realistic.

We're invested in a loss making AIM company in the hope of a large turnaround in the finances and/or a sale. Under those circumstances, there's no point in feeling sorry for ourselves. If we think it's ****e, then we should be looking for a better option elsewhere, or just suck it up.

First world problems etc

BB

Dr H

Re "We'll never know".

Well, we won't know the net cash position at the end of April, but the position at the end of March will be published, which, apart from the payment for this months delivery, won't be massively different.

Alf

The overwhelming majority of stuff posted on this board, including yours, is pointless, I'm just trying to fit in :)

BB

Dr H

My back of a *** packet calculations suggest that after we've paid DSM in April we'll have between 100 and 300k net cash

Workings out :-

Net cash at end of September 2022 : 744k
Cash flow outflow / month at that time : ~30k

So, to maintain the status quo, to end of April 2023 that'd be, say, 515k, plus or minus, say, 50k, so between 465 and 565k

Cost of Fruitflow from DSM is 550k Euros, so about 480k
Income from Fruitflow as an ingredient, maybe between 100 and 250k ?

So, extra ( negative ) cash flow between 230 and 380k, giving ( hopefully ) worst case scenario of just under 100k net cash ( 465 - 380 = 85k ) or best case scenario of ( 565 - 230 = 335k )

Obviously that's all guesswork, which'll annoy some, but I think a fund raise is now the most likely option. There's no reason to believe that a fund raise wouldn't be successful, quite the opposite, but plainly there's still a degree of uncertainity, hence, presumably, the price being dropped

BB

So, now we know that it's been kicked down the road a bit, and, having bought ~500k's worth of stock we're hoping to get a three month extension from DSM on the remainder, but only use that extension if we think it's useful to do so. Not really as positive as I was hoping for.

No details on actual sales in Q1, which is a shame.

BB