Member Info for BoringBernie

Fair play to Ford, I doubted we'd be breaking away from DSM in any shape or form, but we seem to have mitigated the main risk associated with that be plugging into the existing supply chain.

That basically gives us the share of the profits from China and the territories that DSM would have taken. Plainly we'll have some extra costs associated with that, but we should still be better off as a result.

It looks like some of the million raised will be used for this, rather than just to support current operational cashflow.

BB

That's good Sphinx, because strong finances on their part mean they'll have the ability to invest in new products.

But that doesn't necessarily mean it's good for us. I put a couple of grand ( yea, I know, big spender ! ) in DSM about a decade ago, and it's been much more financially rewarding than holding PXS for ten years would have been. Not that I've held PXS continually for 10 years, but you get my drift.

Hopefully today's rise here is the start of another, positive re-rating on PXS. Time will tell on that.

BB

I know next to nothing about the author, but I thought it was a decent read

https://knowledge.sharescope.co.uk/2021/10/20/small-cap-spotlight-report-goodwin/

I will confess to having recently reduced my, somewhat overweight, position in Goodwin, but it's still one of my favourite companies

BB

CB, you ask "why would DSM give a tinkers about Provexis in new negotiations".

The answer is that Provexis own the IP, so, if DSM and Provexis can't negogiate a new deal, then DSM are only able to see Fruitflow to their existing customers, which means any new customers in the pipeline, are off-limits. DSM have invested a lot of time and money into Fruitflow, and they won't want to throw that away. So they'll want to do a deal. Plainly, they'll want that deal to be good for them, so they won't be throwing money at us for the sake of it, but I'd say it's very likely that a deal gets done which suits both parties.

I think it's extremely unlikely that we'll go it alone on Fruitflow,. As Alf says, that would be a big change of the business model and I doubt there's an appetite for investors to back that, but you never know.

In retrospect, I think the main reason for raising a million was as much to do with seeing us through to breakeven / profitability as it was to do with investng in FF+

FY 2021/22 isn't going to be that year, 2022/23 might be, but, to me anyway, it's looking like 2023/24 is a decent bet for it. Others will doubtless disagree.

BB

Overall, those are pretty good results.

The increase in revenue from the AA is excellent, though tempered somewhat with a drop in sales in Q1 from this financial year, so, as Doc Horrible says, we may be flat or thereabouts in the current FY from the AA. That'll become a little clearer when the H1 numbers come out in a few months.

FF+ sales are still nothing to write home about in that it only made a contribution to cashflow of  40k (138.2  -49.1 - 48.7 ) though, to be fair, any effect of direct sales in China via the distributor will barely show in those numbers.

Another loss is anticipated by the board for the current FY, but it'll hopefully be of the same order, or less, than the year just reported on.

We have a bit of flesh on the By-Health calendar as to when they expect to submit on Blue-Hat. Realistically, I think you can add 6 to 18 months to that date before approval is granted, so the earliest we're likely to see that making an effect on our financials is late 2022, with 2023 being more realistic.

For the first time in recent years, the end of the current AA agreement we've talked about on here, has been formally mentioned ( well done Ian ) and we have a bit more detail. My expectation is that the agreement will be extended but on slightly different terms, which will hopefully be to our advantage. I'd expect, as Ford is negogiating with DSM, he'll also be looking at potential partnerships with others on the manufacturing side ( By-Health is the obvious candidate ) so we have both a backup plan, and also some leverage with DSM.

With a current market cap of 18 million, I don't expect DSM or By-Health to make an offer for us.

I'll hold what I've got, but don't feel a burning desire to buy any more. Mind you, the share price is above my last two sales so wtfdik

I watched the webinar the other day, and, although it all seemed fairly positive, I ended up deciding to sell out.

The aim of 100 million revenue by organic growth, with slowly diminishing ( as a percentage of sales rather than an absolute number ) marketing costs leading to an EBITDA % of between 10 and 12% still looks achievable. But, compared to when I bought in, and a current market cap of roughly 100 million,the likely upside in the share price is nowhere near as obvious. I think 100p+ is possible in the year or two, but equally, the share price could hang around at it's current level so I was struggling to justify continuing to hold.

So, good luck to those holding and buying, and I might revisit the situation in the future.

BB

So, Interims are as expected from the trading update, dividend is, roughly, back to pre-COVID levels and Coombs sounds very positive about the outlook.

Barring an awful Winter ( whether caused by COVID or other macro events ), I think we should be looking at decent growth over the next 12 months or so ?

BB

Sphinx

I doubt they're waiting for any news on Blue Hat. If By-Health get that approved then it would very much justify an RNS of it's own.

It's possible ( though I'd say unlikely, because I'd have thought there'd have been an RNS this week saying a delay was expected ) that the results might not come out next week anyway. Companies can still delay results by up to a month because of COVID

BB

Mr Market seems relatively underwhelmed so far, but Mission has recovered, at least, to it's Pre-COVID trading, so I'd expect that to be reflected in the share price "at some time".

I still think we're underrated and can easily justify a sp of 110p plus, but what I think is neither here nor there, so will happily pocket the divi and hope the market eventually agrees with me.

BB

Prompted a bit by Alf's comment on tax. One other possibility is that Lucas and family have moved some shares between different family members ?

If that was the case, then the overall family holdings could remain the same, so no threshold change and no RNS ?

bwtfdik

Gixer

To be honest, I'd forgotten about McKeeve. If he was still holding, but had been amenable to selling to someone directly , then that would be more likely than DSM(V).

Rising Stars are totally out, and have been for a while.

... I know because I asked them what must be at least a couple of years ago.

Alf's suggestion it might be MMs moving shares between each other is possible, but there are specific codes for that, and the 10 million trade I looked at didn't have those codes, so I think that's unlikely.

Maybe this is going to be one of those great PXS unanswered questions ?

Hopefully the upcoming results will give us something more concrete to talk about, though I suspect there won't be anything unexpected in them

BB

It's getting close to the point where I'd probably rule out DSM(V) being involved in these trades. If it was them ( and I thought it was a real possibility ), then I'd have expected them to cross a threshold percentage.

I forget what the timescales are, but the AIM rules say shareholders most notify the company within days if they cross a threshold, and I'd have expected DSM(V) to be on the ball with that kind of thing ( PIs might not be quite so on the ball ).

If we've not had a holdings RNS by the middle of next week, then I'm mentally ruling them out of this one.

BB

One possibility is DSM Venturing selling shares directly to Lucas ?
Time will tell etc

See https://www.legislation.gov.uk/eur/2017/587/2016-07-14/data.xht?view=snippet&wrap=true for the formal definition of a TNCP trade

It's showing as type TNCP ( Non Price Forming Transaction ) which, according to Google, suggests it's a transaction which took place off-market, typically between two individuals or organisations.

So maybe it's a transfer between a couple of HNWI ? If it's not a transfer, I'd guess it's a buy

However, in reality, I havn't a clue.

BB

"products increase sales " should read "products don't increase sales "

Posting from a phone is never a good idea !

Alf

If at least some of the dozens of companies selling Fruitflow based products increase sales on the back of COVID then you have to wonder what, if anything, it would take in the short to medium.

For sure, the science may well help in the long term, but lots of other companies ( including ( Pharma ) will be looking at their own products, so the competition will be fierce.

I can only assume that the million raised from investors has been raised for a purpose over and above covering losses for the next years, so hopefully there's a plan to deliver a ROI on that money, and you'd think subtly pushing FF into peoples minds while talking about COVID was involved in that plan to some extent.
Things like https://www.fruitflowplus.com/covid-19/ , but to a wider audience get round any health claim worries without any undue risk of getting a slap on the risk from regulators.

To be fair, you sound like you're managing short-term expectations, and it's sensible to not expect too much progress this year.

BB

You'd hope that one positive from the horrible situation that COVID created is that people are more aware of their own health, but it might be that the majority start off with good intentions, but then revert to type ?

If the revenue reported in Sept ( which covers the first 12 months of the pandemic ) from the Alliance and sales of FF+ ( Omega ) are up by something close to 20%, then that would suggest that COVID is having an effect. But they weren't anywhere near that in H1

BB

They're good aren't they ?

A well run, plain talking company paying a decent divi . The sp over the last five years is nothing to write home about mind, but for those lucky to get in more recently, the returns have been very good. SUS is one of those companies I've been holding to greater or lesser extents for at least five years and possibly closer to ten, and I suspect will be for another 5 to 10 years.

BB

Re "do you think PXS are in talks to sell up?"

No, raising a million in a placing doesn't square up with the idea of actively looking to sell up, quite the opposite.

Plainly if someone came along with a really good offer, that'd be something to consider, so never say never, but that's very different to actively looking to sell up

BB