Member Info for BoringBernie

Well, I'm still underwater on what was Walker Greenbank, but this morning's update was a very pleasant surprise. A profit of ~6 million GBP for the year soon to end is good going.

The current lockdown will doubtless put a brake on that recovery, but the medium to long term looks much brighter than it did a few months ago

BB

Yea - that divi will cost ~1.4 million GBP which shows a lot of confidence.

To get a pre- tax profit for the year of over 1 million GBP was a pleasant surprise and, if my maths is correct, means the H2 profit was in the order of 3.5 million GBP.

If recovery continues, then I'd hope to see the sp back above 100p again this year, probably sooner rather than later.

BB

Looks like the year ended better than they expected back in November.

I make it that we generated about 900k of cash in the fin. year, as opposed to the roughly 500k originally anticipated.

As Alf says, the extraction of cash to handsomely reward themselves hasn't helped, but it does hopefully look like the penny's dropped, and they've realised that cash generation and profitability, even while growing the top line, can't just be ignored.

The planned investment detailed in today's RNS will obviously hold back profitability, but given that's being funded from cash and debt rather than a further tapping of the market, I'm fine with that.

I'll give the presentation a watch tomorrow, but up roughly 30% since the last update isn't bad.

Hopefully over the medium term, the company will continue to grow, but self fund a good part of that growth, and, though I don't really expect much movement in the short term, I'm hoping we'll see the sp continue to rise.

My 12 month target was ~50p, which still seems possible.

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You can check who the directors are at https://www.mobile-cr.gov.hk/mob/cns_basic_comp.do if you feel that way inclined.

There's a fee mind, so I didn't bother.
My guess it's a subsidiary setup by the distributor ?

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Fair play to Ford, I was expecting something in the order of 250 to 300k to be raised, so raising a million shows an ambition , on the direct sales into China, beyond what I anticipated and there was plainly an appetite to soak up the placing.

The only downside to that is that that ambition suggests to me that Blue Hat, and/or main retail sales are a bit off yet, otherwise the less risky option would be to wait for ByHealth to start putting those orders through to DSM, and just count the cash coming in, but todays events have plainly illustrated wtfdik very clearly.

BB

If push comes to shove and you can't find another broker to transfer your shares to, you could always convert your nominee held shares to a paper crrtificate. That would buy you time to work out what to do in the longer term.

Most brokers would charge you about £25 to do that, but I suspect it'd be dearer with IG because that's the way their business model operates ?

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Skid

The ST and LTIPs are a joke really, especially those at zero cost

Not hitting the targets ? Best move them then.
In the middle of a pandemic ? No worries, grant some anyway.

Sadly, that's just a fact of life.

On the other side, a market cap of 41 million, underpinned by roughly 10 million in the bank should hopefully mean that any cash raises needed are purely for expansion, rather than covering losses, so it's looking much more derisked than it has been for many a year.

Obviously it could still all go pear shaped, but I'd be hoping to see a decent return on my cash over the next 12 to 18 months.

BB

Are two words I like to hear, so, after a long absence, I've dipped my toe in here again.

There's likely some way to go before pre-tax profits really start to flow enough to support a high market cap, but generating cash is a decent starting point.

BB

Well, that was an interesting day, and, first of all, it has to be said the news in the RNS was good news, and fair play to Ford for negogiating the contract.

It's a bit odd that, on the face of it, this may put us into competition with By-Health in China, but I'm sure they'll have been aware of what we intended to do, and I'm also sure they must be comfortable with it. It's also slightly odd that the distributor wasn't named. Given the RNS tells us the distrubution agreement is "with immediate effect", who they are will be public knowledge soon enough

Whether the news was good enough to justify a temporary rise in the market cap of quite a few million above where we ended up is debatable though. So, mainly to annoy Alf, I'm going to look into the entrails of what we know.

We know a manufacturing run of FF+ has been carried out at a cost of 90k to ourselves. We can probably suppose that a good portion of that is bound for China, lets say 60k for the sake of argument. We know the distributor will want to turn a profit, so we can guess what level of profit we might make on the 60k estimate. I'm going to guess we'll sell that 60k worth of stock for no more than 120k and turn a profit of no more than 60k on it.

What we don't know and can't even really guess at, is how much FF+ the distributor is going to shift. If they end up shifting enough stuff to mean we keep on turning the handle on ( say ) 60 to 90k FF+ orders every few months, we should do very well out of it. But if it's a once a year order, then, though good, it wouldn't be as good.

More generally, the cynic in me wonders if we've seen some forward selling from the placing today ? If we have, then it's not the end of the world because it would make the placing easier to get away.

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Alf

Fair point, well made, wholesale was the wrong word to use.

But, if you look back at life before H&B when we were the only ones selling FF+, so the numbers were easier to pick apart, the reality was as follows :-

Revenue from FF+ : 73k
Cost of goods : 23k
Selling and distribution costs : 24k

So, our costs to sell FF+ were 47k on a revenue of 73k

Packets were being sold at between 15 and 20 quid, call it £17.50 on average, so, for every £17.50 of revenue, we had costs
of just over £11.

Of that, roughly half was cost of goods, so about £5.50 a packet

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Kev

You're missing the point a bit. If Fruitflow's £350 / kilo ( and it might not be, that's a guess based on info that Gixer got years ago when it was £500 / kilo ), then that works out as about £1.50 for a packet of 30 tablets.

But any tablets will contain more than just FF, so total ingredient costs will be more than £1.50. Add in manufacturing costs, distribution costs, marketing costs and general overheads and the cost of getting a packet on the shelves soon adds up. Chances are the total wholesale cost of a packet of FF+ is in the order of a tenner ?

Then take into account that we're not taking a share of DSM's revenues of Fruitflow sales, but a share of their profits, and that theoretical ( aka guess ) cost of about 5p cost to the client per tablet for the Fruitflow in the tablet will translate into a much smaller amount of profit per tablet to be shared between DSM and ourselves.

But, as Wellsite says, if DSM shift enough stock, then it's all a bit academic.

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Wellsite

Yep, well, kind of.

50k GBP for 700 kilos works out at nigh on exactly 1p per 150mg, but, personally anyway, I think the numbers I used are on the generous side ( from our perspective ).

Mind you, on "standard" margins, I'd be surprised if it was less than 0.5p per dose, with presumably a fair bit less that that per dose for large orders from the likes of By-Health. However, even if Seriburn "only" came to 25k a year, then you wouldn't need huge amounts of similar sized orders to start making decent inroads into our losses.

At some point you'd hope that PXS will eventually become a cash cow of some description. How long that'll take and how much of a cash cow it might become, should eventually allow us to be valued on reality rather than speculation.

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Gixer

Total guesswork, but, say it was something in the order of £350/kilo now and say it was 700 kilos a year => Revenue to DSM of 245k ?

Operating margin of maybe 20% and gross margin of maybe 60%. Not sure how the definition of profit in the AA might sit in that, but call it 40% => 98k to share ?

A 50/50 split may be generous, but that'd be ~50k ?

Must admit, I'm not convinced each of those sachets has 150mg of FF in them though.

BB

I peered at zoomed in images of the box earlier today, and, rather annoyingly, although you can see each sachet ( ? ) contains 115mg of Vmix, there's no indication, in English anyway, of how much Fruitflow a sachet contains.

As Doc Horrible says, it'll likely be apparent how much of a big deal it is when the Interims come out next month. Quite fun* to guess though ( though it plainly won't take us into profit ).

BB

*plainly, even in normal times, I need to get out more

Then again, it's also available in boxes of 28 ?

https://shopee.sg/-SERYBOX-SERYBURN-Healthy-Diet-Relieve-Swelling-Of-The-Body-Constipation-Supplement-1Box-28EA-1Month-i.119124584.3439321415

Gixer

If it's the same as https://shopee.com.my/-Serybox-Seriburn-Medusa-12-packs-i.282125612.4556282867 then it looks like packs come in 12's, but, if my maths is correct, that's still the equivalent of something like 140,000 people a day taking it ?

Which is quite a bit more than the number taking FF+ !

BB

Google suggests that, in China, a low dose aspirin is quite often 100mg rather than 75mg, which presumably explains the difference

It'd be a big shock to see any trials on the Chinese giving massively different results to the previous European trials, but it's still good to see it in black and white.

Ah, oh well, there goes my dream :(

Fair point.
First thing I'm going to do is buy Alfa Romeo and charge Alf extra for his next motor !