Member Info for BoringBernie

Well, the share price has gone up ~30% since I sold some of my holding here, so, in retrospect, that wasn't the smartest move !

However, with the share price now in the low 80's, I think that's very much on the top side of fair value, so I've sold another chunk, and, barring any unexpected news, the rest will get sold if the sp sp rises to 100p+ this year.

On fair value ... there's an argument to be made that, at a valuation of roughly two times sales, there's more to come, but, at a current valuation of ~110 million, and, by my guesswork, profits of 5 to 10 million a few years down the line, I'd say we're looking a bit more than fairly valued, but the market plainly disagrees !

BB

... of ~8% to 147p.

We had an RNS today, but it was only a Reach RNS, so effectively a Press Release, so I can't see that being the cause.

The optimist in me hopes that a bit of pre-results info, over and above what we already know from the trading update, has leaked out.

The realist in me thinks it's just one of those quirks of the markets, and is just happy to see the sp consistently rising.

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Alf

Re Barclays.

Barclays Nominees are a subsidiary of Barclays Capital Securities, so maybe they're lumped in with the 8.6 million that the FT shows as belonging to Capital Securities ?

Plainly if Barclays are the nominee you hold your shares with, and you have more than 8.6 million shares then that doesn't explain it at all.

BB

It's, roughly, trebled in two years Naz.

Admittedly, the sp is also back to where it was just over four years ago, but it's less boring than some other companies, and more interesting than many posters

BB

Results out next week, which we pretty much have the details of from the trading update. If they tell us Q1 has been particularly good , then I can see the re-rating continuing. If not, it might tread water for a bit.

In my head, unless things change one way or the other in the next 12 months or so, I see 120p as the upper end of fair value.

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esaro

Is converting your nominee shares to a paper certificate an option ? You'd probably have to convert the paper back into a nominee account later if you wanted to sell them quickly at some point in the future, but, depending on the size of your holding*, converting to paper might be more cost effective ?

BB

*For a small holding it's probably not worth it. Last time I converted nominee to paper or vice versa the charge was something like 25 or 30 quid ?

I'm in a similar position here. The price is holding up nicely so I wouldn't be surprised if someone with far deeper pockets than me is accumulating, but I've sold roughly a third of my holding to crystallise some profits.

BB

Just had a listen to the presentation. As is often the case, the main presentation doesn't tell you very much, but the Q&A gives a better insight. The main points from the Q&A for me were

1. Brexit is having an effect on sales to Europe, but it's not huge.

2. They're not expecting a statutory profit ( PBT ) in the next few years, so, and this is my take on it, they'd expect EBITDA, cashflow and adj. op profit to increase, but things like amortisation,capex and share based payments will hold PBT back a bit

3. There are no short/medium term plans to grow the business by acquisition. Never say never, but the main plan is to grow organically. Inferred from that is there are no short to medium term plans to raise money from the markets.

4. Moon wouldn't be drawn on timescales for revenue target of 100 million and double digit EBITDA target, but it was fairly obvious they're aiming for timescales of 4 to 5 years for that.

Overall, it's a shame that those investors who've held since the spin off from Provexis are looking at a sp not much different to what it was nigh on eight years ago. There's a lesson to be learnt there somewhere, but I suppose there's some consolation in being part of a growth story, but, almost, but not totally exclusively, I invest to make money.

I'm no great fan of Moon, he's been very well rewarded for growing the market cap without doing much, if anything, so far anyway, to do anything for shareholder value. But again, though that seems unfair on long term shareholders, my primary concern is to turn a profit on an investment, and so far, I'm doing OK on the back of an upturn in sentiment on SiS, so no major complaints from me.

BB

Ignoring the highlighted EBITDA figure, losses are much reduced from 5.6 to 1.6 million. It'll be interesting to see what guidance, if any, they might give this afternoon for the current year finances ( ignoring the capex on the new factory and gel machine ).

My 12 month target was 50p, which we've gone through much quicker than I expected.

The investment in the factory and machinery should deliver profitable growth in 2022 and beyond. Obviously I'm guessing here, but maybe we'd be looking at operating profit of about 4 million by then ? Current market cap ( @ 56p ) is roughly 75 million, so roughly 20 times earnings in two years time, seems like fair value to me for a company which is finally beginning to show some signs of delivering meaningful profits.

I think if the sp rose to 60p plus in the next few months, the temptation to take some profits by reducing here would be too great though.

BB

Up ~8% to a mid-price of 50p, with little showing in terms of volume ?

Results are out next Wednesday, but they're pretty much nailed on to be as per the last trading update. Maybe things have continued to pick up, but, on the other hand, you'd expect some disruption due to Brexit.

I might give the investor presentation a watch / listen on Wed pm.

BB

For reasons unknown*, SiS dropped their Fruitflow product years ago Everhopeful, we're not in competition with them

BB

*Guessing here, but chances are it wasn't massively profitable and / or, there were better options to invest capital in for the geographical markets SiS were aiming at at the time.

W$

Can't say I blame you. You'd also have the hassle of PXS holders googling you to find out your life history and inside leg measurement !

Fair play to you for your current holding though. A feel like a right pauper in comparison to your net worth and Alfie's retail empire :(

I try to console myself that if I was ten times richer and a multi-millionaire I'd be unlikely to be ten times happier !

Totally agree on Buck's return, if he does well, so do we.

BB

Wellsite

I suggested pretty much just that to Alf a couple of months ago. I reckon if someone had said to Ford last year they were interested in taking part in a placing and had 5 to 10k burning a hole in their pocket, then he'd likely have been amenable to it.

The chance has gone now, but it's worth bearing in mind in the future on any tiny companies with cashflow issues that you're invested in. If you don't ask, you don't get.

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Gixer

Fair point on the closed period.

On "As it is never made clear, everyone assumes Buck does very little with regards to company business which I am sure is not the case. But, as a company, we need someone in the position and you would struggle to get anyone with his knowledge of the product for £36k a year. Far less than it used to be."

I broadly agree with that, Buck's nothing special, but 36k is jack all.

However's he's been a NED since 2019, so, pretty much by definition, will have very little to do with the running of the business and will just be used like an external consultant occassionally. When Buck went from exec chair to non-exec, Ford took on a Chief Exec role and will have taken over the vast majority of Buck's responsibilities as exec chair, hence Buck's large drop in remuneration.

Putting all that to one side, Buck could easily have bought that number of shares in the market, so the extra placing did him a bit of a minir favour, which is fair enough. Tis a shame that Ford didn't put some of his own money in as well, but there you go

BB - eagerly awaiting the RNS showing Wellsite going over 3% ;)

Wellsite

I'd say it was only insider trading if the distributor is much bigger than could be reasonably expected from info in the recent RNSs, or the volume of sales expected via the distributor is much bigger than what you'd expect from the RNS's.

If you think that's the case, and Buck is pulling a fast one by buying at .75p, then I suggest you dig deep over the next month or so, get your buying shoes on and raise your stake to 3 or 4% to follow him.

BB

Odd one this. Another 50k in the bank ( compared to 1000k ) is neither here nor there, so it's almost as though someone wanted a few million shares but didn't want to pay full price in the open market ?I doubt Buck was the driver for this, but who knows.

BB

I've only skimmed them, so may have missed something, but at first glance, there's no obvious surprises in there, good or bad ? ( apart from a bit of income from Nitrates and a drop in income from FF+ ).

Not sure why they couldn't be published last month, or at 7am, but there you go.

BB

Just for info on the expected sort of cost for doing this sort of thing

https://www.saddlers.co.uk/siteassets/fa-cup-sleeve-sponsorship.pdf

https://www.rochdaleafc.co.uk/news/2018/october/commercial-facup_sleevebadgesponsorship/

Admittedly, with Brentford being a Championship club, you'd expect it to be a bit more than that, but it seems pretty good value ?

BB

Good piece of marketing that, won't cost much but should generate some interest.
Seeing Ford quoted as saying "Come On You Bees" is quite surreal though !

BB

I've been a holder three or four times over the last fifteen years or so and done all right out of it, so I like the company, but not enough to buy and hold for ever.

I think I bought back in some time in 2018, which was bad timing, and had meant to cut my losses when COVID looked like being an issue, but plainly never got round to it !