Member Info for BoringBernie

Dr Horrible

I don't read much into the size of the pipeline. Not everything in the sales pipeline will result in a sale so without any indication from Ford of the probabilised value of the pipeline ( ie the best guess on what sales will actually come through ) it's a pretty meaningless measure.

XPublican

Re "concerned". As you've previously correctly pointed out, Provexis' success or otherwise is a binary option depending on ByHealth.

To some extent you either accept that risk, or you don't. If you don't then you should be selling or reducing.

You might argue you're already under water, but as someone who's said you were a professional in this game, you'll understand better than most that the market doesn't give a fook what you paid for your shares.

But, to answer your question, yes, I have concerns, but, at least currently, I'm willing to accept the risk.

BB

In terms of timescales ...

Best case : This month

Worst case : Another couple of years

Realistically : Within the next six months ?

After that, I'm thinking we probably need to be selling something North of 2 million GBP of FF in total before breaking even. Given it's likely the margin on what we sell to ByHealth will be lower than existing sales it may even be more than that.

Given the info on "multiples" and "substantial multiples" fed to us you wouldn't expect that to be an issue, but the devil will be in the detaìl and, as of yet, we have close to zero detail. Though the thought police won't approve, we wiĺl have a much better idea of what sort of Gross Margin FF sales to March 2024 were though, which is a good start

BB

Sphinx

They already have informed the market, otherwise you wouldn't know !

So we know all about the topline growth to ~1 Million for the year to March, but we've been told nothing about how that affected our bottom line.

So Mr Market is probably thinking about the old saying that "Revenue is vanity, profit is sanity but cash is king".

Once we get info on profit and cashflow then the grown ups may well notice us, until then, we can remain hopeful.

BB

W€ ... or maybe someone has sold a block and we'll see a delayed sell tomorrow or Monday ?

Based on the trade flags, which you don't really see on this site, I assumed it was either carried out on something like IG or, as Gix says, a direct transfer between individuals outside a trading venue.

Not that it really matters, but, to be pedantic, given it happened, I'm disinclined to file it under either miraculous or unbelievable !

Alf

While I agree we don't have the budget, and are very unlikely to be able to raise enough funds for a meaningful budget, to be fair to xPub I don't think he's talking about FF+ ?

You say "Provexis only market one product Fruitflow+O2 capsules.". Well, in terms of B2C products, that's correct, but we have a B2B product to sell, which, I'd guess is what xPub is talking about when it comes to marketing.

Your point on funding that is still accurate mind, but, if we could raise the funds, one is worth marketing ( FF ) and the other isn't ( FF+ ).

fwiw - I wouldn't throw money at marketing FF and am happy to sink or swim on ByHealth, but I can understand the frustration.

BB

Krusty

All AIM companies have to maintain an up to date list of their major shareholders on their website, so that's the best place to check.

Ours is at

https://www.provexis.com/shareholder-information/major-shareholders/

Alf

Good post. Assuming the current situation remains ( Lucas and DSMV holding about 17% ) then any recommended offer will have been run past them and the chances of other shareholders blocking an offer is very unlikely.

It might look a bit different if DSM-V sell out prior to any offer, which, though not looking very likely isn't beyond the realms.

If DSMV had exited, that would leave Lucas ( at ~9.5% ) plus the board ( at ~ 1.5% ) and you'd imagine Lucas's friends and acquaintances ( eg xPub ) would follow his lead, but though still unlikely, it wouldn't be impossible for enough of those holding 1 to 2% each to vote against to block an offer. A lot would depend on how much an offer was and whether people thought the buyer and board were pulling a fast one.

FAOD - If Ford was to ever recommend an offer, I'd be minded to trust him. I don't totally rule out that he's playing his own game, but I have him down as being as an honest bloke

BB

Hard to say. To judge what a decent offer would be we'd need some guidance from Ford on the likely revenue / profit / cashflow in, say, 1, 3 and 5 years time.

Given his fairly obvious reluctance to provide anything so far ( apart from the 12 month forecast of "expect to be loss making" in the Annual Report ) , I'm not hopeful that he'll start issuing forecasts ( via the house broker ).

So I think a sensible takeover price could be anywhere between 1.5 and 5p.

I think the more important question is ...

If the board receive an offer of pence per share, and they recommend acceptance, would you take their word on it being a good offer and accept ?

BB

Continued from previous post

... was a bit stroppy, so that's consistent too !

XPub - fair enough

Alf - Assuming he is who I believe he is, then xPub ( who, along time ago, used to post on the boards under other ids ) has deep pockets and I'm inclined to believe him.

If he really was trying to influence the share price, he'd very easy to trace. He always

XPub

Are you, or have you been, connected to Asset Match at all ?

Welly

Instead of complaining on here, if you want to know if the upcoming DSM products contain FF you could try emailing Avril Pendergast-Fischer and ask her ?

She probably won't tell you, but if she does, and they do contain FF then it would make sense that Provexis' social media people say nothing about it until DSM crank the handle on their official comms.

Odd that it doesn't show up on their list of companies at https://www.aquis.eu/companies

Must just be a glitch then. Maybe it's not appeared on that list for ages ?

Sphinx

Doesn't look like we are. Cost cutting perhaps ? A quick Google suggests it cost ~7k a year to maintain a listing in 2020.

https://aquis-public-files.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/aqse/pdfs/Primary+Rules/AQSE+Issuer+Fee+Schedule+April+2019.pdf will hopefully work

BB

Slam

Because they paid their £200 to enter the competition and one of the main ideas of the competition is to generate a bit of coverage

Aye, that's fair enough.

In retrospect I should have sold up when it became obvious it wasn't just external events which were causing the problems here, but such is life, everything's easier in retrospect.

We're plainly vulnerable to a bid at the moment, and probably will be for another couple of years or so, but I can't see this one being it.

I suspect an offer which put a value on us of between 35 and 40p would have to be taken more seriously.

Problem with that is that it could be seen as a bit high which could then negatively affect the value the market assigns to Brave Bison, so reducing the effective offer.

You're normally one to always see the positive in every move a company takes Alf. I agree that Mission lost sight of what's important and need to repair the damage, but did you lose patience and reduce or sell up here ? Couldn't blame you if you had btw.

BB

The 5m trade looks like a sell DP. Which worked out well for Kievsky because I suspect he took advantage by buying just under 900k shares ?

BB