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I watched the webinar the other day, and, although it all seemed fairly positive, I ended up deciding to sell out.
The aim of 100 million revenue by organic growth, with slowly diminishing ( as a percentage of sales rather than an absolute number ) marketing costs leading to an EBITDA % of between 10 and 12% still looks achievable. But, compared to when I bought in, and a current market cap of roughly 100 million,the likely upside in the share price is nowhere near as obvious. I think 100p+ is possible in the year or two, but equally, the share price could hang around at it's current level so I was struggling to justify continuing to hold.
So, good luck to those holding and buying, and I might revisit the situation in the future.
BB
So, Interims are as expected from the trading update, dividend is, roughly, back to pre-COVID levels and Coombs sounds very positive about the outlook.
Barring an awful Winter ( whether caused by COVID or other macro events ), I think we should be looking at decent growth over the next 12 months or so ?
BB
Sphinx
I doubt they're waiting for any news on Blue Hat. If By-Health get that approved then it would very much justify an RNS of it's own.
It's possible ( though I'd say unlikely, because I'd have thought there'd have been an RNS this week saying a delay was expected ) that the results might not come out next week anyway. Companies can still delay results by up to a month because of COVID
BB
Mr Market seems relatively underwhelmed so far, but Mission has recovered, at least, to it's Pre-COVID trading, so I'd expect that to be reflected in the share price "at some time".
I still think we're underrated and can easily justify a sp of 110p plus, but what I think is neither here nor there, so will happily pocket the divi and hope the market eventually agrees with me.
BB
Prompted a bit by Alf's comment on tax. One other possibility is that Lucas and family have moved some shares between different family members ?
If that was the case, then the overall family holdings could remain the same, so no threshold change and no RNS ?
bwtfdik
Gixer
To be honest, I'd forgotten about McKeeve. If he was still holding, but had been amenable to selling to someone directly , then that would be more likely than DSM(V).
Rising Stars are totally out, and have been for a while.
... I know because I asked them what must be at least a couple of years ago.
Alf's suggestion it might be MMs moving shares between each other is possible, but there are specific codes for that, and the 10 million trade I looked at didn't have those codes, so I think that's unlikely.
Maybe this is going to be one of those great PXS unanswered questions ?
Hopefully the upcoming results will give us something more concrete to talk about, though I suspect there won't be anything unexpected in them
BB
It's getting close to the point where I'd probably rule out DSM(V) being involved in these trades. If it was them ( and I thought it was a real possibility ), then I'd have expected them to cross a threshold percentage.
I forget what the timescales are, but the AIM rules say shareholders most notify the company within days if they cross a threshold, and I'd have expected DSM(V) to be on the ball with that kind of thing ( PIs might not be quite so on the ball ).
If we've not had a holdings RNS by the middle of next week, then I'm mentally ruling them out of this one.
BB
One possibility is DSM Venturing selling shares directly to Lucas ?
Time will tell etc
See https://www.legislation.gov.uk/eur/2017/587/2016-07-14/data.xht?view=snippet&wrap=true for the formal definition of a TNCP trade
It's showing as type TNCP ( Non Price Forming Transaction ) which, according to Google, suggests it's a transaction which took place off-market, typically between two individuals or organisations.
So maybe it's a transfer between a couple of HNWI ? If it's not a transfer, I'd guess it's a buy
However, in reality, I havn't a clue.
BB
"products increase sales " should read "products don't increase sales "
Posting from a phone is never a good idea !
Alf
If at least some of the dozens of companies selling Fruitflow based products increase sales on the back of COVID then you have to wonder what, if anything, it would take in the short to medium.
For sure, the science may well help in the long term, but lots of other companies ( including ( Pharma ) will be looking at their own products, so the competition will be fierce.
I can only assume that the million raised from investors has been raised for a purpose over and above covering losses for the next years, so hopefully there's a plan to deliver a ROI on that money, and you'd think subtly pushing FF into peoples minds while talking about COVID was involved in that plan to some extent.
Things like https://www.fruitflowplus.com/covid-19/ , but to a wider audience get round any health claim worries without any undue risk of getting a slap on the risk from regulators.
To be fair, you sound like you're managing short-term expectations, and it's sensible to not expect too much progress this year.
BB
You'd hope that one positive from the horrible situation that COVID created is that people are more aware of their own health, but it might be that the majority start off with good intentions, but then revert to type ?
If the revenue reported in Sept ( which covers the first 12 months of the pandemic ) from the Alliance and sales of FF+ ( Omega ) are up by something close to 20%, then that would suggest that COVID is having an effect. But they weren't anywhere near that in H1
BB
They're good aren't they ?
A well run, plain talking company paying a decent divi . The sp over the last five years is nothing to write home about mind, but for those lucky to get in more recently, the returns have been very good. SUS is one of those companies I've been holding to greater or lesser extents for at least five years and possibly closer to ten, and I suspect will be for another 5 to 10 years.
BB
Re "do you think PXS are in talks to sell up?"
No, raising a million in a placing doesn't square up with the idea of actively looking to sell up, quite the opposite.
Plainly if someone came along with a really good offer, that'd be something to consider, so never say never, but that's very different to actively looking to sell up
BB
Well, the share price has gone up ~30% since I sold some of my holding here, so, in retrospect, that wasn't the smartest move !
However, with the share price now in the low 80's, I think that's very much on the top side of fair value, so I've sold another chunk, and, barring any unexpected news, the rest will get sold if the sp sp rises to 100p+ this year.
On fair value ... there's an argument to be made that, at a valuation of roughly two times sales, there's more to come, but, at a current valuation of ~110 million, and, by my guesswork, profits of 5 to 10 million a few years down the line, I'd say we're looking a bit more than fairly valued, but the market plainly disagrees !
BB
... of ~8% to 147p.
We had an RNS today, but it was only a Reach RNS, so effectively a Press Release, so I can't see that being the cause.
The optimist in me hopes that a bit of pre-results info, over and above what we already know from the trading update, has leaked out.
The realist in me thinks it's just one of those quirks of the markets, and is just happy to see the sp consistently rising.
BB
Alf
Re Barclays.
Barclays Nominees are a subsidiary of Barclays Capital Securities, so maybe they're lumped in with the 8.6 million that the FT shows as belonging to Capital Securities ?
Plainly if Barclays are the nominee you hold your shares with, and you have more than 8.6 million shares then that doesn't explain it at all.
BB
It's, roughly, trebled in two years Naz.
Admittedly, the sp is also back to where it was just over four years ago, but it's less boring than some other companies, and more interesting than many posters
BB
Results out next week, which we pretty much have the details of from the trading update. If they tell us Q1 has been particularly good , then I can see the re-rating continuing. If not, it might tread water for a bit.
In my head, unless things change one way or the other in the next 12 months or so, I see 120p as the upper end of fair value.
BB