Member Info for BoringBernie

Sphinx - yea, 1.3 million was my guess, anything above that would be a bonus for me.

More importantly, on the basis that the results will likely come out on the 30th September, is whether or not we get an indication of the likely revenue for H1 and, as Alf says/implies, what stock do we have and how is it being paid for.

BB

Obviously it would be helpful if the company communicated more with it's shareholders than just when it's a legal requirement to do so, but I'm now coming round to the idea that a manufacturing run has been carried out this year, just not a huge one.

That's based on us now being in August and having been previously told ...

*****

The share issues to DSM Venturing BV are of direct benefit to the Company's cash resources and net assets, and they will help the Company to fund a wholly new production run of Fruitflow II SD which will be required in the early months of 2025.

****

So it was "will" not might snd August is well past the early months of the year, so I can see we may well have had a production run done for us which cost something in the order of ~350k.

As is usual with Ian and Provexis, and to put it into perspective, many other companies too is that what he writes is often so vague as to be meaningless. It's only after the event that things become a little clearer.

Yea, I agree with all of that. I wasn't in from day one and it sure as he'll seems more than 20 years.

Hopefully this isn't just another of those little jumps due to a bit of buying which then drops back. Mind you, I sold a few earlier in case it is.

BB

Alf

You're wise to be cynical, but the company was floated in 2005, so it's not impossible.

BB

I'd be surprised if full year revenue is > 1.3 million.

We had inventory of ~150k at the end of H1 and added ~270k to that in April, totalling a bit over 420k.

Unless we've added to that inventory since then and Ford hasn't told us ( which is possible, but I think it's unlikely), then selling our complete inventory would likely generate something in the order of 650k.

I think the most likely scenario is we havn't sold all that inventory and revenue for H2 is no more than 500k, hence total revenue will be < 1.3 million.

BB

It's a concern, has been for a while but has been highlighted even more by the recent'ish options and warrants being issued at prices well below the current share price.

If, in return for financing the next manfacturing round(s) XPub's mates want a similar return to those options and warrants then there'd be quite significant dilution.

Obviously the board say they want to avoid such dilution, but they've already signalled that they're happy to do that for their own options, which was signed off by the same major shareholders who may well want a similar price going forward, so there's not much real independence in the decision making.

There's fook all small shareholders can realistically do about it though, so it's just a wait and see situation.

BB

Well, that explains today's price movement. 34p seems low, but if the board end up formally recommending it then it'll probably get waved through.

Hopefully someone else will come along with a better offer.

Haha - Just to add to the weirdness, it looks like he's deleted the post now !

I wonder if he was in dispute with them and it's sorted now.

His support and work on Kiwi Fruit Extract always seemed at odds with ( presumably ) getting a retainer from Provexis.

He's plainly a very talented scientist, but he's a bit of an oddball as well, posting that on Facebook is a really weird thing to do.

Aye, it's good to see profit being the focus of the business rather than revenue. That makes the company look like it's being run by grown ups.

On debt - that's down because of the fund raising.

I'd be very pleasantly surprised if DSM bought us. It would be a strange turnaround for a company to reduce their position previously ( some time before March 2024, exact date unknown because we weren't informed ) and then reverse that decision.

With us having a very close working relationship with them, I suspect they just wanted to keep a supplier afloat who had cashflow issues, for which we should all be grateful.

I'd be delighted to be wrong on the takeover front though and, in the end, wtfdIk

BB

Re "Weird or concerning"

Might just be DSM drip feeding shares into the market ? If it is, and it's purely conjecture, then I'd say it's neither weird or concerning.

BB

I've always assumed that "trade secrets" are tweaks they know about which can't be protected by a patent.

tbh - I doubt they're hugely important.

It's not something I knew much about before this week, but Change of Control has a pretty specific meaning.

See things like https://uk.practicallaw.thomsonreuters.com/w-004-1885 for more info

On contractors, consultants etc, while they might not be on the payroll that doesn't mean they're not raising invoices for their time and so, indirectly , getting paid. I would hope that, given the exceedingly generous options issued to them that they're working on a very reduced day-rate, but I doubt very much they're doing it for zero cash (after all, they'll have bills, mortgages etc like most people ).

Of course Ford could have said in the RNS that people were taking a lower cash compensation now in exchange for their options, but there's no indication of that. That isn't really surprising, he probably didn't think through the optics of it and how he could make it more palatable to minor shareholders.

BB

Alf

Re "Are Dr Asim and Dr Niamh not also on the BoD ?"

O'Kennedy is, Duttaroy isn't, he's just an advisor.

While I'm sure O'Kennedy is reasonably savvy business wise, she's plainly mainly there for her scientific expertise, so I'm sure Ford is pulling all the strings on the business side of things.

Re "Ain't going to happen". I pretty much agree with you on that, but, given who he is and what he's been reported as saying at the AGM to a poster, I'm not ruling out him being involved in trying to take us private with Ford's blessing.

Like any possible offer, the devil would be in the detail and people don't have to accept it.

BB

DP

Theoretically, that may be correct ( though, tbh, I'm not even sure it's theoretically correct ). But to do that would require a hostile takeover led by Lucas et al, which I'd put pretty much put at the bottom of a list. Though I certainly don't rule out Lucas et al taking the company private under an offer recommended by the board ( The board basically being Ford with Buck doing as he's told ).

BB

It seems to me, though it may just be coincidence, that Ford's new options are designed to effectively replace some of his existing options.

He currently has 35 million options which he could exercise today, 25 million at 0.3p and 10 million at 0.55p.

He also has 17 million options which he can exercise at 0.83p.

Plainly the only ones which are really worth exercising at present are the 25 million at 0.3p. Exercising those options would cost him 75k. Plainly I don't know Ford's financial situation and equally I don't know what the tax situation would be for him, but I suspect he'd could afford to do that and holding those shares, rather than having the options in his back pocket, would be a vote of confidence in the company's prospects.

If he couldn't afford to cover the costs of exercising the options, then the usual thing to do in these circumstances is to exercise the options and then sell some of the shares to cover his costs. I would have no problem with him doing that, though there might not be enough liquidity in the market to easily do that.

It's possible that he considers us to be in a Closed Period so deems exercising any options to be impossible, but companies aren't permanently in Closed Periods.

All in all, these new options leave a nasty taste in the mouth and I'm surprised that Ford, who's always seemed to me to be a decent man, has gone done this route. Sod all we can do about apart from have a moan ... hence this post !

BB

I guess if we knew what the performance criteria were, those strike prices, while plainly greedy, wouldn't be too bad.

But we don't. If, for example, someone offers 1.0p and all performance criteria are met, then, on the options just issued, Ford stands to gain

30,000,000 * .007 = 210k

At a takeover price of 2p that comes to 510k

I think he would be likely to be kept on for at least 12 months post any takeover to handover the reins. All in all, even after tax, for someone who'll be 60 soon, that's a nice little earner.

I'm not convinced that means his interests, and those of the shareholders, are as aligned as they could be.

Having said that, maybe there's an elephant in the room and the low strike prices are signalling Ford and the consultants idea of an exit strategy ( on share price ) is lower than many shareholders are hoping for ?

BB

Royalty payments ARE recorded in the P&L though.

To be fair, they're then recorded as a liability, which effectively flatters our cashflow numbers. So, if we'd paid DSM in cash then our cashflow would have been poorer. As it is, the, more or less breakeven cashflow shows what the situation would pretty much, all other things being equal, have been if we didn't have to pay DSM a royalty.

While they ( or potentially, but unlikely Ford ) have plainly previously taken the proverbial, that isn't the case here.

DSM are obliged to tell Provexis when they cross a threshold and the onus is then on Provexis to inform the market ( via RNS ).

Though it's normal practice to inform the market using a TR-1, it's not mandatory to use that mechanism, so the RNS from the 18th covers it.

I'm not totally 100% sure the above is accurate, but I'd happily bet money on it. I suspect not issuing a TR-1 is Ford's choice and he's chosen that route to save a few quid.