RE: Breakout - 60p to £ 15 Nov 2021 14:11
Hey Michael,
If you would care to revisit your post the other day you'll note that you didn't say they may have had to refocus the trials, you said you think they've needed to refocus the trials. There's a difference and it was your reasoning behind your thinking that they’ve needed to refocus the trials that my post was in response to.
You'll also note that whilst I labelled your reasoning/thinking that they have had problems have needed to refocus the trial as pessimism, I also acknowledged that that doesn't mean you can't be right. I think it's fair to say that I wouldn't have acknowledged that it doesn't mean your thinking can't be right if I was coming from the less than honest motives perspective that I interpret you as insinuating - correct me on my interpretation if I’m wrong?
As for my claiming that the trial is going very well. It wasn’t a claim, it was an opinion. A claim is something yet to be verified as fact but made out to be such. Perhaps my reasoning wasn’t clear enough for you to make that distinction and if that’s the case then that’s on me. I was very clear in my response to Dave in the same thread though that what I said was an opinion and not a fact.
My motives should you be interested are that I am long on 4D and have high conviction. My conviction comes from my background enabling me to understand a lot of the heavy science. I’ve never traded stock in any company and as people will see if they look at the few past comments I’ve made on here I have no interest in the short term. My only interest is the operation and performance of a business as that is what counts in the long run.
A bit more reasoning behind my thinking for you is this. Dave referred to my talking about the mrx0518 plans mentioned in the corporate presentation as essentially being useless because they wouldn’t put bad news in there (I agreed with him that they wouldn’t). However, even if someone like Dave places little weight on the presentation as a source of insight, it is official communication by the company and management have a duty not to knowingly mislead investors.
With that context that they have a duty not to knowingly mislead in mind. There is currently one phase 2 trial ongoing for mrx0518, so when they note in the presentation that in 2022 they plan to “Advance MRx0518 into registration-targeted studies” I don’t think it unreasonable to reason that they wouldn’t say that if they have had problems in the phase 2 trial. If they’ve had problems that could knowingly put the above 2022 plan into question then it’s reasonable to consider that what they put in the presentation could leave them open to the charge of knowingly misleading. As far as I’m concerned they’ve been very good stewards of the business to date and as such I don’t think they would be irresponsible.
Again, it’s an opinion not a claim. It might turn out to be that I've fooled myself with a great example of confirmation bias.