Member Info for booboouberbear

Considering the economic news out of China over the weekend and Germany this morning I’d suggest things are about to get pretty bad in a much shorter timelines than our political and economic leaders would suggest so buckle up me thinks!

"This is the most aggressive and final stage of the dollar rally…..The ingredients for an overshoot are in place but it will be a short-lived, furious affair…What happens next? A very bumpy ride until, in a few months' time, the dollar runs out of steam" Kit Jukes, SG.

If the Dollar retraces evenback down to the 90 Dollar Index range there will be a very large spike in Dollar based commodities.

Just came in at a minus of -1.4% figure some 2.4% below expectations.

Japan is the forerunner of things to come, we will have further QE and Yield Curve Control in the West in the next 6/12 Months I’d guess.

The USD Strength / USD Index is causing AUX weakness, comparing AU to JPY, EUR, GBP, it’s almost at all time highs against these basket of currencies.

To me it looks like central bank coordination to keep commodity prices at a manageable level, but if it goes to far both these countries could be importing double digit inflation if they are not carful (and worse if this strategy goes wrong).

Just wait till we all sink into recession and they all fire the printing presses back up…

Holding / strategically adding, plan to start taking shares off the table mid point 2023 all going well.

They'll progress it pretty deep into the PFS / DFS reports and feasibility studies to make the asset inherently more valuable, but the project will be JV'd at some point, the costs in mining haven't just rocketed in OPEX, they have rocketed in CAPEX of new mines too, construction costs globally have exploded.

The market likes it because the bad news is behind it and the good news in front of it, that's the way you want it...

Looks like they'll need £5/10m debt IMHO to get into 2023 and have both NLGM and Singida both into production, the real returns will be Q1/Q2 next year and the build up to it, generally happy with the news, steady as you go.

Get to the better ore "sooner" that should read.

Yes, you should probably just ignore the more mischievous on here, they have been clear with their forward Q1 / Yearly 2022 guidance, should we get to better ore (as intimated in the last webinar) then all the better for us shareholders. Not long to find out, will be this week.

The US Dollar Index and US Denominated Debt Yields are an issue at the moment across the board, not helped that the we now have a race to the bottom in the Yen and Euro being artificially weakened in relation to the Dollar, the Yen is at multi decade lows against the Dollar and the Euro is not far off breaching a 2 decade low against the Dollar, this is why a lot of folks are worried about the sheer levels of inflation both Japan and the Eurozone could ‘import’ if they allow their currency to crash, which may have the adverse consequences of having their central banks rush to protect their currencies (raising interest rates) which may make matters worse and induce a debt crisis!

Yes, SHG like AUX (well for arguments sake the paper trading AUX) is all liquid assets that all get sold down in the melee, there is a very large global recession coming within the next 1-3 quarters, everyone knows it (while some prefer not to admit it), and with no (perceived) central bank liquidity in the offing there’s really no point being in a large portion of the market is there?

The question is how bad does it get before central banks back off an admit defeat and begin QE again? Probably not long!

Cash is your friend at this point.

UK retail sales released this morning are a harbinger of much worse to come, the US and EU will follow suit as interest rates, inflation and QT crush their economies, this will reverse in massive QE to refloat their economies, AU should be in for a golden age once the dust on that carnage settles. Keep lots of cash back in the intervening period.

Strange times, the top 3 economic country in the world by GDP has made it policy to buy all of it’s own debt as necessary to keep yields from rising at no more than 0.25% on it’s 250% debt to GDP ratio and the market hasn’t even blinked, it is now utterly defenceless if inflation takes hold, it has zero policy tools now left, madness (and it’s inflation rate is already at 6%).

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/20/bank-of-japan-defends-yield-target-offers-to-buy-unlimited-10-year-bonds-.html

Coming to a debt ladened central bank near you soon…So much debt yielding nothing in the system that the only ones left to buy their own debt is themselves, kinda crazy when you think of history’s lessons on this.

Read back to Volker's comments when he left the Fed in the 80s, he was clear they let Gold rise too high which helped depress the greenback which also fuelled inflation on dollar backed assets and commodities, of course Gold is artifcially held back.

@ BTB,

It wont matter IMO, what is playing out in financial markets has to be a prelude to a recession. And from that recession I’m expecting a serious pull back in both the strength of Greenback and US Yields will have to be reined in on the back of further QE (they may call it something else).

The “strength” of both is the only thing stopping a genuine meltdown in the commodity markets (hydrocarbons, agriculture and metals) and I view that to be quite deliberate actions of the western central banks acting in concert to ensure that is what plays out, we are in a weird “King Dollar” play and everyone has mutual interest in it succeeding or you can start adding zeros to the inflations numbers and you hardly need to be a “tinfoil hat” nutter to read that. The fact that AUX (every other currency traded with AU is now at all time highs) has even held up at all tells us a great deal.

The IMF are telling us a recession is coming, and when that hits, the Fed / US Treasury will have no option but to implement massive monetary easing (again) IMO.

AUX’s best days are well and truly ahead of it.

Can't see the divi increasing, but it's a side show for me in this environment, a lot of things could (should) go right for us in a very short space of time, and the way AUX is holding up / going up in an environment surging yields and US dollar index, says we should be in for an excellent macro and micro environment.

Could be an exceptional 12 months here.

https://www.kitco.com/news/2022-04-15/Mining-companies-have-to-aggressively-rebuild-their-reserves-with-M-A-Ian-Telfer.html

On that theme, some interesting comments from a guy who really knows his stuff.