Member Info for booboouberbear

The only comparable reference to todays economic challenges was the oil / energy crisis of the 70s. But unlike that time, debt ratios are now 300%+ higher in comparison to that time.

Central Banks are in the worst possible scenario, higher interest rates will do nothing to bring down inflation (just wait till this winter energy crisis hits), and will send economies into a plunge, and cause sovereign debt crises to boot.

So CBs are in some mad kind of purgatory where they are raising interest rates slowly but know it will do nothing and will probably result in a serious recession and still end up with the same inflation.

What the West's economies look like in the next 12 or 24 months is anyone's guess.

Even the merest hint of Powell waving the white flag on inflation the dollar slumped and every commodity has gone on a tear in the last 48 hours, it does show the impossible situation they find themselves in, save the dollar and crash the market / economy, or save the markets / economy and crash the dollar, PCE today showed another surprise upside to inflation, it could go very wrong very quickly.

Already talking down interest rate rises before an economy shaking at the knees, no one saw that coming…

I’ve topped up the last few weeks as I think once summer is over we will be in to a strong company micro area where we are counting down to becoming a 6 figure + ounce producer and once we get into 2023 we should be increasing markedly in SP / MCAP.

I’d still like to see a WK farm-in as I think that would set a light under the SP.

As for Au price, we should prepare ourselves for a series of black swan events IMO this winter, especially around energy crises and what that means for easy monetary and inflation policy.

Those are decent results and if June’s 7,538 ounces can be maintained (give or take) we may be getting close to going back to being a 75 / 80k ounce annual mine and pushing 110k ounces a year in Q2 2023 when Singida comes on line, and with it a higher SP (of course that will depend on the Macro picture to a large extent).

Definitely a marathon and not a sprint this one but if there’s a sniff of a serious global recession and easing of monetary policy (for me it’s only a matter of when) then expect the Macro here to improve in a heartbeat.

Everything being bushwhacked (with the notable exception of Nat Gas in EU / UK (Obviously) and Equities (rather inextricably). Although when the gravity of earnings becomes clear for Q2 later in July, don’t expect that to last.

It’s clear we are going into a very large recession and dark energy times over this winter, what comes next IMO is more QE and hyperinflation at the other end of it.

Good post:

There will probably be QE for the rest of my life, and I'm not that old, with debt loads, interest rates will never be allowed to find their natural equilibrium again, as Italy and Greece debt have shown in the last few weeks, when the printer stops, the market will turn on their debts, what this means in the years ahead is anyone's guess, but it will at the very least mean a massive drop in living standards across the west.

The whole market will drift substantially lower over the next few months and into the autumn / winter, once the liquidity tightens up under rate hikes and the earnings horrors / recession becomes clear in Q3 / Q4 it wont be pretty. I doubt many asset classes will fair well. It the QE from the worlds central banks that will follow the severe downturn that we should prepare for in investment terms.

On the micro, this company is set up very well for 2023 and worth substantial top ups at these levels IMO.

Considering the carnage about to unfold in markets over the summer I’m going to say today’s loan note was probably even better than I thought it was at 7am this morning, that money may literally not be there next week!

Keep cash until the cordite clears.

Positive stuff, decent interest rates and common sense payback periods. Mining isn't easy and if they can get into 2023 with two assets producing +100k I'll be happy and WK heading towards multi million ounce resource / reserve.

Signaling plunge tank time. Winter won't be good.

Going into the tank and fast, next round of QE won't be far off and with it you'd better be in precmetals when the dollar goes south.

More great grades giving credence to the project, it's going to be something special given time. Once we get closer / into 2023 this company should take off IMO in terms of SP.

Interestingly the gold COMEX spot price and 1 month futures price went into backwardation today, doesn't happen often...

Walmart, Target, Cisco, have all shown in the last 24 hours where the state of the US real economy was in Q1 and it’s only getting worse, this all ends up in a massive mess, one way or another, this is 20 years of monetary madness that is now unwinding and it’ll be nasty beyond what most understand.

Ditto lol.

My contrarian view is that the QE taps are turned back on when a big fat recession comes into view like an iceberg.

If the Fed starts dropping 75 bps bombs onto the market with BOJ and ECB refusing to budge then you'll have the DXY at 110+ and NASDAQ well south of <10k, I can't believe they've got the stomach to do that kind of damage to Americas boomers and their 401ks. They'll have to reverse tact at some point and eat the inflation.

Considering the damage that is going on out there SHG and AUX is holding up very well, we just need to let it play out, whatever that really means because it’s going to get very nasty out there unless Central Banks to a 180 degree turn as the equity markets are front running what the real economy is going to look like in 6 to 12 months (tanksville).

US Productivity (against Labour Costs) also just crashed to a new post WW2 record low, it’s fast becoming a downward spiral.

US Fed admitting there's only a certain speed of raising rates and QT even possible before the US Economy (and everything else for that matter) falls out the sky like a shot pheasent.

Considering the US economy is already contracting, inflation and debt to gdp ratios rocketing and living standards plummeting who knows what's around the corner.

WK results are due any day now, could be this?