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Don't get too fixated in the past and the media. The report merely states one of the facts I.e. past acquisition price is 10x trailing revenue but that does NOT mean it was the metric used to calculate the price. Darktrace have much lower people cost than US companies hence it is much closer to profitability than competitions.

Big share price movement will indicate leakage of offer price. Until then just sit back and relax.

There are mixture of long and short positions in latest RNS. Looks like they are hedging. Well, guess this solidifies 500p as new floor.

Don't touch Haleon. Consumer stocks will tank in Q1 2023 after releasing disappointing Christmas result.

Private equity firm will sell the company after a few years. So cash flow is not the most important factor, if they can relist Darktrace in Nasdaq at multiple of purchase price then it is a good deal for them.

My estimate is 600-800p, so 700p is a credible target. Anyway, the offer price will be the most accurate valuation of Darktrace yet, and JPM foolishness shall be immortalised as MBA case study.

From JPM's 320p, we know how clueless analysts are. Acting like a true analyst myself :), I reiterate 600p initial offer, and 700-800p final offer.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/darktrace-on-the-radar-of-rival-bidders-rjnpp0w26

Cisco, Palo Alto Networks and CrowdStrike, three other American businesses, were tipped as potential candidates monitoring developments. Darktrace said in a statement on Monday that it had received “a number of preliminary and conditional proposals”, but disclosed only Thoma Bravo’s name.
...
Analysts said a bidder may have to offer at least £5 a share. Needham said: “We find that Thoma Bravo tends to buy best-in-breed, No 1 market share companies and pay a solid premium.” Darktrace was listed at £2.50 a share, valuing the business at about £1.7 billion.
...
Nor do analysts expect opposition from the UK government. Darktrace works for the government, but offers “just one of many potential solutions”, one analyst said.

Reynolds said: “I don’t see any reason for the government to be concerned.” Indeed, he thinks Darktrace’s position as a beacon for British technology listings has been overdone: “A takeover is not particularly relevant.”

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-11117113/Darktrace-shares-soar-private-equity-swoops.html

Analysts said an offer of £4billion or 570p would be taken seriously by shareholders.

AJ Bell analyst Danni Hewson said: ‘570p would get everybody around the table. Talks would have start seriously at that point.’

Ade, you can and should sell up if high SP makes you uncomfortable. I think the SP is exactly where it should be now but I agree it shouldn't rise too fast or risk collapsing before offer is announced.

A national newspaper is behaving like a tabloid, they just have to make it a Mike Lynch story. That's why Darktace should quite London Stock Exchange.

The ideal outcome would be - Darktrace rejects the offer on the result day, and announce it has achieved profitability. That would support the already levitated share price.

Blade, don't feel too bad, you got the entry timing spot on. My current profit is only about the same as you made from your last trade. Many have only just bought in this morning.

I have trained my eyes to auto-filter nonsense...

Given the rapid share price rise today, the suitor should act fast to make an offer. Hype could push SP to ridiculous price and we don't want to see offer price to be lower than SP.

Oh yes, one would still make some decent and quick money buying now even if the offer is only 600p.

If a business is stagnant, not growing, then offer some low 10%s premium, and any sensible people would accept it. However, Darktrace is still growing and the best is yet to come, so the offer will need to be a lot higher to take into account the growth in the next few years.

oh yea, JPM has just reiterated underweight at 320p. How ignorant?!

One way of looking at the fair price.
Assuming 330p on IPO day was a fair price, the business grew 50% after a year, that makes current price of 500p a fair valuation. In a functioning market (which is not), if the business grow another 50%, then the SP in 1 year time would be about 750p. If Darktrace was offered 750p or below, in theory, they will only need to wait 1 year to reach that value. For that, I believe offer price will be above 750p or it should be rejected.

Let's see if Microsoft will make a move...

UK institutions did not 'lost' the ability to value tech businesses, they never had it.

500p is the would-be-price on the result day before insiders dumping shares to drag it down. I'd take it as the base for premium calculation. A premium of 50%-60% would bring the offer price to 750p-800p which I would gladly accept.