Member Info for bobocaca

We're in green today, only just after the UT. Phew. Like I thought, no massive profit taking today, but there might be some tomorrow.

Don't know where the SP will end up, but as a business, Darktrace doesn't have to worry about war, supply chain, consumer confidence/high interest rate, any of which is lethal for retail/consumer business. The only 'enemy' to DT SP is insider selling. Good news is that Angela's selling didn't dent the SP and that is hugely comforting.

The big fall in June started after US market opened; similarly, recent rises happened after 2.30pm too. IR told me in the past that most of the investors were from the states. Therefore, the Americans will have bigger impact than LSE/FTSE on Darktrace price.

That's good news, that's the right way to selling big chunk of shares without having to bring down the SP together with it. Love to see them reducing their stakes gradually like this. If all insiders do it this way, then road to recovery will be a lot smoother.

I doubt the SP will drop a lot when market opens tomorrow, given that volume is still quite low. A lot of investors are late on news, so they may have only read about Avast etc this evening and decided to buy tomorrow. My bet is that SP will still be green tomorrow.

I don't see 11M after hour sales. The UT was about 300k, and there are about 5M of late reporting. Nobody will know who they are but looks like institutional investors start buying again.

What comes out from [the you know who] 's mouth is often quite stupid. Making many baseless, brainless assumptions.

Berylfu, the volume has been low for more than a week now.

When the trend is side-wise i.e. SP going up and down, the traders could make money by pushing the SP higher in the morning, then sell it in afternoon to push the price down; and keep repeat that everyday. My theory is, they find that this tactic could no longer worked, when the SP actually rose after US markets open and that has happened a few times in past week. So, they moved away to other targets, hence the low volume but more stable price. There is no longer big rise in morning and crashing down in the afternoon.

I don't think China will start a war, it will have a lot to lose than to gain from conquering the tiny island. If the China-Taiwan conflict escalates to war, the effect on market will be similar to Russia-Ukraine war, but 10 times bigger. Not only companies who do business in China, but every company that make things will have the supply chain severely impacted. After a while, like now, people will realise Darktrace is not impacted by this as it is a software company, which I think by choice avoid doing business in China. A while back, Poppy even suggested to form a Cyber Nato which will only make the company more valuable. As summary, if war broke, market will collapse but Darktrace will rise back up faster than others.

Looks like it could break 380p tomorrow.

BTW, today's volume of only 500k is probably the lowest ever. Not sure about the implications, maybe traders have moved away and SP can only go up?

Of course the cost will be up due to travel and additional headcount, only lazy fool who do not do any research or financial illiterate will say cost is down.

Checking back the half year trading result, the EBIT was $8M with expected adjusted EBITDA margin for the year to be up to 12%. Now, the latest trading says the expected adjusted EBITDA margin is increased to at least 19.5% (with increased revenue). So unless the share-based payment charges in 2H is significantly higher than 1H, then EBITDA and hence EBIT for full year should be positive i.e. profitable.

Given that it was already profitable in half year result, and revenue grew in latest trading update, I assume we will achieve net profit in coming full year report. Or, just in slight loss due to strong USD.

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/darktrace-plc-lon-dark-breakeven-095644727.html

"Darktrace currently has no debt on its balance sheet, which is quite unusual for a cash-burning growth company, which typically has high debt relative to its equity. This means that the company has been operating purely on its equity investment and has no debt burden. This aspect reduces the risk around investing in the loss-making company."

Thanks god that it has finally stopped falling.

It is not about if it possible (anything is possible) but rather what is the most probably share price. I would be happy if it stabilises above 400p after annual report in September.

Although I expected the SP to drop in early of the week but it is still disappointing to see it fell that much. Anyway, US interest rate rise did not interrupt Nasdaq's rally, which lead me to believe the bear may have bottomed out. Hopefully SP could to back to 370p in next couple of days.

Next week will largely depend on Nasdaq earning reports.

Not only the share price did not fall after nasdaq tumbles but rising towards market closing.

Like I predicted, the week before expected trading update was the best opportunity to buy.

Sheltie, good for you :) Although I've always missed out on the bottom (because already put all my money in Darktrace, one big lesson I learned) but I'm very happy for those who bought at low as this helps supporting the SP.

I did regret to buy back in early May when I should have walked away with some profit after correctly predicting the SP crash caused by lapsing of employees lockup period (otherwise I'm £40k richer now). However, I did not regret choosing Darktrace. Although I'm still at loss now, but Darktrace's YTD performance still beat all other tech stocks that I've known. Sooner rather than later, people will realise keeping cash in bank will only bring 9% loss a year, and Darktrace, seemingly unaffected by high inflation and interest rate, is the sort of the stock to invest into. I believe we are at the start of a bull run that could run for 2-3months.

Sheltie turning bullish is the best indicator of the share price trend :)