Member Info for bobocaca

I think the norm is the company only make announcement after an offer has been received/accepted/rejected. Pre-announcing that TB might be offering a bid seems a bit out of norm. It is possible that Darktrace may have already received bids from others. We don't know. For those who already owning the shares, the best strategy is to hold. For those who haven't, the risk is not a lot different than buying other stock which may fall as well as rise. However, if I had to choose a stock to buy now, I would still pick Darktrace over others.

Shorting a company with a potential bid offer is either extremely stupid or an act of compulsive gambling

For those without subscription, it merely days ShadowFall is out again advising their 40 clients. However there is no mention of details e.g. shorting, SP. I seriously doubt how many will listen to them.

Charles, sheltie wasn't really talking about Darktrace, he and us just want you to shut up.

Private equity don't buy a company based on its profit alone. They buy bankrupted companies all the time. In Darktrace case, they are buying its potential. A US company bought a Cambridge company and use its bio sequencing tech to expand the business and grew many multiple times. It is Illumina, competiter of Oxford Nano.

The bidding price won't be under 600p, it will either be higher, or no bid. TB is smarter than the usual IIs, they won't offer a low bid to waste each other time. I don't plan to sell my stakes now as I believe 500p+ is fair price even if there is no bid. I also don't waste my time speculating the bid price.

Ya, I too think the bidding decision will come after result day. Hope the SP doesn't move too quickly in the next week, and it should either stable or rise in the week leading to the result day.

Change of topic away from TB.

https://www.france24.com/en/video/20220823-paris-hospital-falls-victim-to-10m-cyberattack-hospitals-are-very-attractive-for-attackers

https://techmonitor.ai/technology/cybersecurity/french-hospital-cyberattack-ransomware

"Darktrace sees bright light at the end of the tunnel" - I read this yesterday but really no new information that is worth posting here. Anyway, I will put second half of the article here for you.

....

Yet some analysts question the shape of Darktrace’s business. Irish brokerage Davy points to high marketing and sales costs, which equated to 45 per cent of revenue during the first half of the year. Roughly 65 per cent of sales come from direct sales. Davy argues that a closer tie with sales headcount could constrain sales growth and forecasts a compound annual sales growth rate of about 30 per cent for Darktrace from last year to 2024. But that compares with more than 70 per cent for American peer SentinelOne.

Research and development expenditure is below peers, at 7.5 per cent of revenue in the first half, a figure it expects to rise to between 10 and 13 per cent. Darktrace has pointed to the “self-learning” nature of its cybersecurity software, which cuts down on installation time and costs and means the core technology can be easily adapted.

Investors might look to the takeout premiums achieved by some of Thoma Bravo’s other targets, including software group Sophos at a 37 per cent premium in 2019 and last year’s purchase of US cybersecurity specialist Proofpoint at a 34 per cent premium to the share price.
Yet Darktrace is a less mature business, posting faster recent revenue growth but with a shorter proven record. The downturn in tech valuations in the face of sharply rising inflation could also prove an additional justification for a less meaty takeover premium.

Adding Darktrace to its stable of cybersecurity assets would provide Thoma Bravo with plenty of opportunity to strip out costs, an opportunity that won’t go unnoticed by larger rivals either.
ADVICE Hold
WHY A firm offer could solidify the shares’ recent gains or send them higher still

https://www.businessweekly.co.uk/news/hi-tech/darktrace-not-looking-sell-or-sell-out

Don't believe Crowdstrike is cash rich enough to buy up Darktrace. In comparison, Cisco is a more likely candidate as cybersecurity is essential to its core business.

For those who haven't bought, the number they should care about is the minimum offer price, this gives them safe margin to invest. The wild guess of maximum offer price is meaningless, as it is clear that market has spoken that the SP does not currently rise about 550-600p i.e. the expected minimum offer price. So, maximum offer price serve only 1 purpose - for us to daydream about how to spend the money - to buy a new car, pay for mortgage deposit.. As for me, I have been calculating how many months could I afford to not work :)

I have no idea why Charles would want to keep ramping the price. If somehow miracle happens, he succeeds to ramp the price to 800p, and TB might think they could not match the price and pull out, and it would be disastrous. I would want them to make an offer, whether the board accept it or not, the price will set a gold standard for what Darktrace is worth.

There are more awareness about value of Darktrace, so not all new investors will be selling in case there is no bid. Having said that, the SP should not fall all the way back to 400p. I reckon initially falling to around 475p before rising back to 500p. Timing is also a factor, I reckon the SP should be less impacted if the bidding decision is announced after the result day.

Sheltie, Lending etc... I thought a year of investing in Darktrace would have made you wiser on at least 1 thing - that is to simply ignore CR888.

Save your breath.

The key takeaway, it should be be 800p+!!

It came as one investor in Darktrace indicated they would want to see an offer of at least £8 per share, double its price before Thoma Bravo’s interest was revealed, before considering any offer.
...
Alex Henderson, an analyst at Needham, said: “I think the valuation is much closer to the £8 plus range.”

SP is going up linearly, suggesting big buyers have entered the market. Those with spare money, or want to average down, might want to act quick.

Share price is rose back up after large drop in the morning. I didn't enjoy my holiday in last summer as I spent most time on phone screen watching the free fall of the SP.

The resilience bring me hope that I could enjoy my holiday abroad next week, perhaps even pre-celebrating by having a fine dining.

Yes all opinion is welcome but don't see him as an expert in this matter.

Wolfie, I see that you are new in here, so let me give you a warning. CR888 aka Charles is a renowned ramper, OK for him to speak is mind but it is extremely dangerous to take advice from him. His financial knowledge is not as sound as he sound.

For me, the acquisition came at the good time. If it came earlier at 285p, then most people would not make much money even if they offer 50% premium. If it came later, I'm quite sure the SP would have slipped back to sub 350p given the weak market this week. Thanks to the acquisition news, we are here daydreaming about how to spend the money. I'm grateful for that and I hope both parties will agree to a sensible number.

As the buyer is vrry experienced in acquisition, I think they will make only 1 offer, an offer that one cannot refuse. My view is, fine if you want to trade but you should buy back before market closes because you wont know when that RNS will arrive. For myself, the potential loss of losing out far outweighs potential gain of day trading so I guess I would simply sit and wait for the offer news.