Member Info for Bluelight

I take any of these holding numbers with a pinch of salt. If retail and II investors have both reduced someone has bought them, and yet we don't see a holding report on that. Personally I feel the unreported large holdings will have increased. The fall was a play to shift more shares from retail to II, a stated goal of NCYT.

Those webinars don't really help us though, last one they didn't even mention novacyts name

I'm not clear if cash was reported as in the bank, or inclusive of invoices. Maybe someone with accountancy experience can clarify that? I'm assuming that 100m is cash in bank, then I'm adding a reduced 5m a month cash build, so I estimate c120m currently in cash

We all make emotional decisions sometimes. I imagine there are many others also sat on the sidelines waiting for a floor, and some certainty from the company before buying back in. Can't blame them for that, and another reason NCYT should do more on the communication front, particularly now. Of course when that certainty is finally here the price wont be trading at this level and it will cost more to buy back, but thats the choice everyone makes. Take more risk and potentially get in at a low, or wait to see if it drops more but potentially get caught out by a rally and have to pay more. Risk/reward.

I agree with that, the cash position alone limits the downside here. Whats the worst case scenario, litigation no new major contracts, maybe £3 a share as the worse case scenario downside. Whats the upside given a resolution, other contracts, notice on increasing private sector sales, takeover, previous high? Max downside 25%, max upside 200%. That's how I value it, and why I have no issue adding anywhere at these levels. Not risk free of course, nothing is, but the risk reward favourability is just too strong right now.

There's a point in trading psychology where after a substantial decline people just stop caring if it drops more, whats the point in worrying if its 3,4,5 quid, it's all still fundamentally cheap. Thats the point its harder for prices to remain in a downtrend, because the selling just dries up. Who knows where that is, but its bang in the irrelevant price level territory for me now, where risk reward is so heavily skewed to the upside that there's no concern anymore. A day, a week, a month, a quarter, who knows when it will rally, but for sure it will be significantly higher than this price at some point soon.

If only. Only own what I'm confortable with, no point getting carried away. I'll add if it drops a little more, but I have enough that any recovery will be very nice, whilst any further declines will just be an opportunity.

It isn't litigation though yet, it is a dispute which they are trying to resolve amicably. If they cant then it becomes litigation. Theres a general misunderstanding (arguably as a result of NCYT's vague RNS) that it is already legal. Taking legal advice on your position and actually suing the gov are 2 very different things. It's priced as though it is litigation though for sure. That's one of the potential upside catalysts, an unexpected agreement within the 4 week dispute discussions.

Also worth noting the CEO bought half a million worth at 817 a share. So he's hardly likely to go yeah ok, give me half my money and you can have it... Its not owned enough by institutional investors to be able to get one of the big boys on board to facilitate the deal, so they need the approval of the army of retail investors. Many of us wouldn't even contemplate a bid less than £10, so unless they really want to stump up they will struggle to buy it on the cheap.

You can't just take advantage of a share price drop with a low ball offer. As I understand it the offer has to be as per rules. Not clear if its the highest price in 12m or 3m etc, but it's not a one off price, otherwise whats to stop a company forcing a price down on a temp blip and buying it at that price. Also, no reason it can't be approached informally with an offer and in discussions. Only formal approaches have to be reported to the market.

Thats a bit more for me at 397, keep chipping away at it

Pride comes before a fall greeny. Taking pleasure in other people losing money often comes back to bite you. Maybe a lesson worth bearing in mind in future. Snide little comments taking digs at another person shows more about the character of the person posting it, than for the one it is aimed at.

interesting article on BBC. Great success in vaccinations, however surging cases again. Reason they say is they allowed people to go on holiday before everyone was vaccinated. Does that ring a bell with any other country?.... https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-56731801

If it halves then I will buy more as its mcap will equal its cash in the bank, in fact I'd probably be buying every pennys worth i can. You are literally buying free money. The main reason I am still invested is the mcap bears no relation to its cash and its earnings. At some point they'll just close the shop and give us all bags of money. Obviously it'd be bought long before then, but still there's c120m estimate in the bank today and a mcap of 290m. I'm buying all day long at these levels, despite finding myself starting to hate the management. It's just too strong a financial position not to buy it for financial reasons alone.

I'd disagree that they don't get to pick and choose. They chose to move from monthly financial update RNS's to 6m, in hindsight bad decision. They also RNS some new products and not others, again by choice. They could release a statement on their operational plan, but they choose not to. They could release a statement on why they consider the share price action to be incorrect, they choose not to. An RNS does not have to be compulsory, there is a high degree of choice in what a company releases, above and beyond regulatory requirements. They have chosen to say nothing, and provide no details. That wilfull decision to keep investors in the dark is a huge part of the share price decline this year.

All the shiny distractions wont help I am afraid. This is part of my issue with their communications. They focus on image and distractions, whilst providing no substance. Until there is info on the dispute, and clarity on sales then there will be no trust. Trading update, we are in dispute, may this may that, not sure about how sales will look etc. But check our new twitter post, aren't we amazing. Poor, very poor. If I think that and I'm already invested, imagine how potential investors see it... Best outcome now is someone to take us over and extract true value, as I just do not think that is possible with this management.

I think we often make excuses for his failings. It is clear the RNS strategy is wrong, they don't RNS what should be RNS'd, and it has rapidly turned into a point of contention whether it is willfully negligent that they are doing so. In my view this year so far has been an unmitigated disaster PR wise by NCYT. They need to do alot to turn it aorund, one major contract win would help the price, but more needs doing on the investor relations, as many investors have lost all confidence with management (rightly or wrongly). As it stands when we get to the AGM he is going to get slaughtered.

I agree. I drive past lots of pubs on the way back from work and all day long they are packed with big queues and no one distancing. usually takes a few weeks for it to start creeping up then you get the exponential rise again.

For me part of the issue is the gov has got so excited about low case numbers, and put it all down to the vaccine penetration levels, whilst ignoring the fact we've been in full lockdown for months (which in my mind is the only reaosn cases fell). Low cases mean less PCR demand, so why do we need all this PCR we've ordered with low cases? The answer is because we are now exiting lockdown, and will probably allow some travel again. We will see a big surge in cases in a few months, and wont have the PCR capacity to control it this time as the stock will have been sold elsewhere. Very short sighted and naive from the gov.

What i would like to see is something along the lines of informing us that the released machines / stocks that were set aside for Phase 2 have now been signed up to either Germany or the US en masse. Basically say to the UK, your loss, and get our growth back on full throttle. Its highly possible, but we wait and see.