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Still waiting for an answer to the question 🤔

Who mentioned LSE?

LSE was never mentioned but yes, hence the use of the word ‘exchange’ to disambiguate.

Last trade booked on the exchange was approx million shares for 0.9950p at 16:28 (rounded up to 1.00p on the closing price). Nearly two minutes at the close with no trade reported but trades were very sparse by then, so no UT, no late reported trades, although that wouldn’t rule out one landing early Monday morning.

I've no idea. I still can't adequately reconcile the CPR estimates with the EWT results so could be way out. They've used a complex model, which makes complete sense but not all of the working is shown so it's hard to be sure. The method relies type‑curve water forecasts multiplied by probabilistic GWR and He%, then scaled to well development schedule, so there's a lot in there. It does look very conservative if the numbers are for all the planned wells combined.

I think they've given a 2C resource headline that matches the company's EWT model (validating that as contingent) but then given a P50 probabilistic estimate for production that is more conservative.

OK, my error. I can't get all the numbers to reconcile but the CPR estimate for the EPS output does match the Itumbula EWT if that's just the output for one well over ten years

There's a rather large difference between the company's initial estimate of 6,176 scf/d helium from 20,000 bbl/d fluid at 5.5%, and the CPR estimate of 1,460 scf/d helium from the same 20,000 bbl/d at 5.2%. I think that could be due to assumptions about gas to water ratios but I've no idea. It's a big difference.

So the scenario planning is based on the ESPs delivering 20,000 bbl/d per well of fluid (as per the Itumbula EWT prediction), with an assumed gas to water ratio of 0.25, and a helium in gas concentration of 5.2%. I think that implies a gas flow rate around 28 Mscf/d per well, of which about 1 Mscf/d helium. Or somewhere in excess of 500 Mscf helium per year per well (5,000 Mscf over ten years), with five wells feeding the EPS all at the same rate. The CPR models this mid case at 22,414 Mscf for the combined EPS output over the first ten years (but also builds in the full development facility from year 2, which doubles the output with more wells). That looks like perhaps $40m worth to an off taker (at say $700 Mscf). The modelling parameters are very wide though, so it could end up being a great deal more or somewhat less. I suspect that's what Lorna meant in her interview by doing more appraisal work to push the numbers up (such as the possible side tracking?). Not sure if I've understood the estimates correctly.

But they've already RNSd that all negotiations were completed and terms agreed for the award of licence, so I don't think the act of signature is price sensitive in terms of Rule 11 (it may be price sensitive in sentimental trading terms but that's not really relevant to the company's considerations).

As previously indicated in remarks by the CEO, they appear to be working on a timeline of approximately 12 months from licence award for first production in Q3 2026. First of the wells proposed for drilling in Q4 this year (well locations not finalised).

Extracts from CPR, based on analysing the company's unpublished development plans.

"Helium One plans to use Electric Submersible Pumps (“ESPs”) in their subsurface production wells. These pumps are designed to deliver 20,000 bbl/d of water. ... If the wells are far enough apart, the model indicates that the liquid rate does not decrease with time—it remains constant at 20,000 bbl/d per well. Helium One models a low case at a lower initial liquid rate, 12,300 bbl/d, which decreases with time."

"Five production wells are planned for the EPS, with drilling to commence in Q4 2025. Helium One has advised that there is an onshore drilling rig ready to deploy, and that each well would require 4 to 6 weeks for sequential drilling. Sproule ERCE considers this a realistic estimate for drilling time based on onshore drilling benchmarks. On this schedule, all five wells are expected to be ready before the EPF comes online in Q3 2026."

"The EPS is assumed to operate for six months before the full development project is commenced. FID for the full development is assumed to be taken at the end of December 2026, with drilling for the full development commencing in February 2027 and the full CPF coming on stream in November 2027"

Loads of detail on HE1's development plans in there that I'd missed, far more than in RNS releases. Very helpful.

Thanks, that's helpful

I think the CEO in her last interview was clear that the path would be phased development, so I think it would be unrealistic to expect anything like a "final all in one RNS". We already know the JV has been established solely between HE1 and the TZ government at this point, so I wouldn't be expecting a third party just yet. They've promised to announce the next development steps, which I'm sure they'll do.

I hope they're able to publish the CPR or own analysis of the modelling. It's not entirely clear if the CPR table extract in the last RNS estimates "a typical well" (Itumbula) or the total output of the EPS (e.g. five wells?). But comparing the EWT results last year, it looks like the estimates are for one typical well over ten years (i.e. I was expecting to see roughly 20,000 Mscf per well per year, and the 2C is 22,414, so that might be roughly $11m over ten years at $500 / Mscf, which seems to fit).

Indeed. Songwe Helium Ltd was registered on 26 June (two weeks ago) with directors' names required on the registration documents (company information publicly available by request from BRELA). The licence was then activated on 4 July, also a week gone tomorrow and status now in the public domain (apologies I thought it had been notified earlier this week). I suppose they could argue the material facts were concluded and notified to the market in advance of company registration and activation. I'm not holding my breath though.

I told you. You chose not to believe me 🤷‍♀️

The question was, "does anybody think that the company may look at share consolidation...further down the line"

Yes, I think the company "may look at share consolidation" further down the line. It's hardly a controversial opinion and it would be more surprising if they didn't look at the possibility, further down the line, perhaps when thinking about a main market listing. Why wouldn't they?

Yes, and yes, further down the line.

You can read BNL's cash position in their ASX announcement of 29 April. At end Q1 they were relying on HE1's farm in contributions and/or a further equity raise to continue their operations this year in hope of receiving first income from Colorado gas sales, which they were anticipating in H1 and which they appear to need by Q3. Obviously have to wish them well, although it might not do HE1 any harm if their half of Galactica came up for sale by Q4 (or perhaps they could hope to sell Lincoln county and stay in Galactica).

https://www.bluestarhelium.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/61261805-1.pdf

"8.7 Estimated quarters of funding available" = 1.8 (i.e. from beginning Q2 until around early September)

"8.8 If item 8.7 is less than 2 quarters, please provide answers to the following questions:"

"8.8.1 Does the entity expect that it will continue to have the current level of net operating cash flows for the time being and, if not, why not?

Answer: The Company notes it has entered into a farmin agreement with Helium One Global Ltd that significantly reduces the capital required from the Company for the Galactica Pegasus project. The first half of 2025 will see a relative increase in net operating cash outflows as the Galactica Pegasus development is finalized easing once turned to sales."

"8.8.2 Has the entity taken any steps, or does it propose to take any steps, to raise further cash to fund its operations and, if so, what are those steps and how likely does it believe that they will be successful?

Answer: The Board regularly evaluates market appetite for equity financing and believes that the Company will be able to continue to access funding as required."

"8.8.3 Does the entity expect to be able to continue its operations and to meet its business objectives and, if so, on what basis?

Answer: Yes, with the new farmin agreement and continued access to funding, the Company expects to be able to meet its business objectives."

Might depend on your location or vpn. It’s always a bit temperamental