Member Info for Blubay

Yes, it’s impossible to know really. They might drop a positive news RNS before the meeting that boosts the SP. We’re not within ten days of the meeting yet so keep an eye on price averages from next week

This is unlikely to be ‘the dip’. The dip comes when you get the 20% discount retail offer for the raise (i.e. 20% below the lowest daily average in the ten days preceding the offer date). If the retail offer date is the meeting date or shortly after then that probably means a buying opportunity at least 20% below today’s opportunity. Then there may be the dip if the institutional lenders call in their conversion discount at 20% below that dip, which might be another buying opportunity. Read the RNS.

These are not 'institutional investors' in HE1. They are institutions that hold shares/funds on behalf of retail clients in pensions, ISAs and life policies etc.

Interesting theory

Which 'institutional investors' do imagine Sarah Cope, Panmure Liberum, Zeus Capital and MRex might have tempted into a raise for a pre-revenue small cap company on AIM? Would they include the same 'supportive long term investors' who financed the previous raises? Might that include Panmure Liberum, Zeus Capital and Cantor Fitzgerald for example?

"a new frontier of rare gas and heat co-production" - nice mention for HE1 and mirrors the first Chinese production plant that came on stream recently.

If the current price holds then you should get them around 80% of 0.85p, so somewhere in the region of 0.68p (depending what happens between now and the meeting). I wouldn't worry too much if you can't, most AIM shares converge towards the placement price in the period following the placing, if only briefly, so there's a usually a chance to grab them spot in case you miss the advance offering. My point was simply that if PIs are offered to buy at (e.g.) 0.68p and the investors then call in their conversion date within ten days of the spot price dipping to match that, then they would get their shares for 0.54p (and they might look to trade them out for margin profit below the PI entry price). No way of predicting really, it could well work out better for PIs if the price surged after the buy in date. It's just that AIM just has this niggly habit of placings working out better for institutions than for PIs :-(

Beesty - "What is SO hard to understand? It's there in black and white for all to read!!!"

The deal for retail is not really the same. The deal for investors is that they get CLNs which they can convert to shares at a specified discount but on a date of their own choosing (whenever they decide the discount is to their best advantage). Retail are not getting that deal. They'll be able to participate in an offering "using the same pricing structure as available to the Investors" but on a date decided by the company/Nomad, which may or may not be to their best advantage. We'll see how it pans out anyway.

“The Company intends to make available to existing shareholders the ability to participate in a retail offer of up to £1,000,000 as soon as reasonably practicable following the conclusion of the General Meeting (defined below) (the "Retail Offer"). It is intended that the Retail Offer will be made available using the same pricing structure as available to the Investors under the Investment Agreement. The Company expects that further details in respect of the Retail Offer will follow shortly after conclusion of the General Meeting.”

does that mean retail gets the same ‘discount’ (e.g. over ten days prior to the meeting), or they get the same ‘price’ as the investors get (when converting later)?

It’s an odd one because the institutional ‘investors’ are going to take convertible loan notes at an unknown share conversion price. It’s hard to understand how retail investors can have the same terms, or receive the same share price discount before any conversion date/price is announced. Puzzling 🤔

No requirement to register TR1 voting rights

Punter - HE1 is registered in the British Virgin Islands

Beesty, see the final part of the RNS

“In the event that the resolution at the General Meeting is not passed, the Investment Agreement will be implemented by way of a cash box structure.”

It’s just standard wording, reflecting the rules on AIM. Forward selling is not allowed, shorting is not allowed, etc. yet we’re all aware how equity raises for pre revenue companies are conducted on AIM. I will happily await the disclosure of significant shareholdings but I won’t hold my breath.

The RNS confirms that all framework agreements have not been finalised, whereas the previous RNS indicated that all negotiations were complete. Not sure if that’s material or not. Obviously can’t rule it out but I think there’s a difference between ‘details of’ the study and publishing the study in full. I’d be quite surprised if they did but I do hope we see details of the economic modelling.

“Any sale by the Investors of Ordinary Shares acquired by them under the Investment Agreement must be conducted in an orderly manner. ”

Sure, along with every other ‘orderly’ managed capital raise on AIM. Note though that they’ve chosen not to name the investors and there’s no lock in period. It would be lovely if there were long term investors in the projects at this stage but it would be surprising.

I’m really not. I’ve always been very optimistic about this company’s long term prospects. I am of course cynical about the shark pool that is AIM, about Nomads and brokers, and the so-called ‘investors’ they bring to the table in book building. But I’m optimistic about the ability of HE1’s board to play that system and to give themselves a fighting chance of becoming a going concern as a producer, which would be a fantastic achievement. The long term goals of the company and the short term interests of retail shareholders may not always be aligned of course.

“The Investors may elect to convert the £10 million Advance into ordinary shares ("Ordinary Shares") in the Company at any time and in any such proportion as they so choose upon delivery to the Company of a notice of conversion ("Conversion Notice"). The conversion price will be an amount equal to 80 per cent of the higher of: (i) the lowest single daily volume weighted average price ("VWAP") in respect of the Company's Ordinary Shares during the 10 trading days immediately preceding the date of the Conversion Notice; or (ii) 92.5 per cent of the VWAP for the 10 trading days immediately preceding the date of the Conversion Notice.”

At any time they choose, so basically any time they believe they can trade the shares for best profit. If I was the ‘investor’ I might well be shorting the share price before the meeting and then call notice of conversion as soon as the capital injection was confirmed, using with benefit of the ten days previous discount price.

I suspect we’ll be waiting for the board presentation and slide deck for the meeting, unless they try to soften up the shareholders with a sweetener RNS before the vote.

I think the CEO was fairly clear last year that the 600 page feasibility study wasn’t intended for publication but that numbers coming out of that would be published in a CPR, which they’ve done.