Member Info for Blubay

Why do you think anyone missed it?

"They may wait until production is tied in and up and running."

As they said in the RNS on 18 August...

"The operating team will now undertake reservoir clean-up, production testing and install the production liner to bring the SCHB-2(2.) well into production through the existing Schwarzbach facilities which are owned and operated by the Company. The expectation is that this production will be brought onstream over the next month.

The Company expects to provide a further update on progress of the SCHB-2(2.) well after undertaking the reservoir clean-up operation and production testing."

On what basis are you estimating 0.75p? What flow rate would be needed to warrant that valuation?

Great price for longer investors today, just bought another lot under 7p

Hardly, anyone who missed that RNS two months ago also missed bagging on the share price rise.

The key point about acquiring the larger rig is that they can move quickly to appraisal without significant additional cost or delay.

Take a typical example of the current oil drill by BCE, their June RNS read as follows:

"Commencement of drilling at the Schwarzbach-2 Development Well

Beacon Energy (AIM:BCE) is pleased to announce that drilling has started at the Schwarzbach-2 ("SCHB-2") development well within the Erfelden Field, onshore South West Germany.

Drilling operations are expected to take in the region of 25 days to reach the prognosed TD drilling depth of 2255m (1709m True Vertical Depth), with an additional 12 days scheduled for testing."

Yes, that kind of RNS wouldn't be unusual. It's a key operational development with implications for the market, so it would be potentially remiss to keep it quiet but companies do like to have things in the bag before announcing. You'd expect that RNS to outline projected drill depth and number of days for drill and testing etc. Once the market knows the schedule then more investors/traders will start to scale in, and based on last time also to scale out profits near terminal depth before results come in. However, no-one's really expecting that announcement until mid September or so, but likely the eager money will edge in as we get closer to it.

Some folks invest, some folks trade, one is not smarter than the other, just different strategies. If I could make 10% a month on different swing trades I'd be delighted.

You think each of 'the MMs' have an army of little trolls that monitor retail discussions on 1,900 London listed shares, and then compare notes? Seriously?

It's a regulatory notice, they had to issue one in light of the unexpected price movement. And they should have released on anyway as the market was expecting announcement on the delayed date for TD. The previous RNS on 7 August said "The Company expects to reach TD in the coming days and will provide a further update on progress of the SCHB-2(2.) well as appropriate." It turns out they'd already got there, withdrawn the drill assembly, cleaned out the well, and inserted the wire line kit without announcing. Yesterday's SP movement was likely an insider leak.

Although what it means is that progress has been slower than anticipated in the previous RNS (assuring the market of reaching target depth last week) and they can't guarantee it'll be this week. It's a prudent announcement but it's a further delay, hopefully a modest one. These things happen, common problem, but they do cost money as long as the clock is ticking.

RNS on Monday said "The Company expects to reach TD during the course of this week and will provide a further update on progress of the SCHB-2(2.) well as appropriate."

They wouldn't publish "during the course of this week" in an official market news release without some degree of confidence/expectation as they'd know the market will start to get edgy again very soon.

It's kind of a pointless game though because you have to factor in the unknown timing of the next fund raise/dilution. The SP will rise into this drill but probably get taken back at whatever point they think they have enough momentum to raise the next tranche of capital. There is then a huge unknown about the company's future business strategy, whether they plan to continue as a prospecting business or as a producer or selling into a joint venture (and whether they sell into just Tai or other Rukwa prospects). The Board movements might suggest some hypotheses on that.

"It’s as if the markets have sushed that there is no oil down there"

Obviously there's oil down there as they're drilling into an existing reserve but drilling is always a risky venture and anyone who buys shares in small cap AIM company drilling ventures knows this, it's high risk / high reward (or loss/dilution)

Could easily be a few days, they would need to clean and case before drilling the next stage to target, assuming that goes smoothly, or cater for any further difficulties if the going is slow.

For illustration https://glossary.slb.com/en/terms/t/true_vertical_depth

@Ezhik - if you read the RNS at commencement of drilling, it clearly said

"...25 days to reach the prognosed TD drilling depth of 2255m (1709m True Vertical Depth)..." - which implies a target 1709m vertical and 546m lateral from the drill pad

To put that in context, the planned drill was estimated at 25 days for 2255m target depth (1709m true depth), which is an average of 90m per day (or average 68m true depth). If the remaining 100m depth is equivalent drilling difficulty and speed to what they've drilled so far then it might be estimated 1-2 days drilling (after cleaning out any blockage in the section where the assembly detached).

Yes, bargain prices early trading and quickly bought up. The increased HC gas levels are the positive news hint here and should add confidence at these price levels. 100m is a short distance left to drill to first TD, unless there's a bigger geological hurdle than expected at the current depth.