Member Info for Blubay

"they stated 2nd week September production"

No they didn't. The RNS said they would work on cleaning and production over the next month or so and update accordingly.

What I mean is that you can't take a maximum possible 100bcf NAV for the entire untapped basin reserve assumption and convert that into a share price. You need to consider what the volume of HE1's discovery might be within that basin, and O&G shares are more typically valued on cash flow per share anyway. Hannam valued the shares at 25p risked NAV in their note in 2021 (but prior to dilutions etc and changes in market price of helium) as follows...

"A simple way to look at the current valuation is that based on our NPV12 of ~US$60/mcf, HE1’s EV of ~US$65mm is pricing in 1bcf of helium being discovered, relative to its unrisked prospective resource of 138bcf. Our risked NAV of 25p/sh is the equivalent of a ~5bcf helium discovery once fully derisked. "

Seems reasonable, although the company position is also slightly enhanced since the last campaign due to the drill ownership. Personally, I'll be de-risking around 10p (if we get that far) and letting the rest ride on chance of discovery.

You can't price shares on total reserve or NAV in the ground.

"Twice as many buys than sells - yet 4.5% down - how does that work ?"

No way of knowing how many buys and sells there are, all you can see is how many trades are above or below current mid price, and HE1 trades on SETSqx anyway so uncrossing is periodic through the day.

Yes, if you shorted from around 7p a week ago then 6.35p is a decent enough exit at -10%

Nearly 20 million shares traded by 9am, compared to a ten day average daily volume of 6.5m

"Trust in this company now has gone for me after how badly they treat their shareholders! "

Don't be daft. They've handled it quite well, although no doubt they'd have hoped for a higher raise price. The whole point of listing on AIM is to raise capital and everyone knows AIM companies get taken to the cleaners by the banks/institutions every time they raise. But they've judged it well enough to get away with only -10% discount and it's held up OK with the over-subscription. The new shares aren't allocated to market until 15 September, at which point the drill may be close to spud. There may be a lot of profit taking and de-risking at that point but for new investors is a good prospect now with the risks effectively off the table.

Don’t be daft, they can’t sell in that situation and would have to announce it if they could. They did buy in the public offer, as announced in the RNS.

How would Noble be drilling 'at the same time'? HE1 is already on site, rigged up and nearly ready to spud. The Noble rig won't arrive until end of September and won't be drilling before Tai has been drilled.

The secondary retail offer is a sale of shares by existing shareholders York Holdings

Just checked, the 6p offer isn't closed on Primary Bid, says expected close 7.30pm

Minimum offer £500

They launched a secondary retail offer at price to be determined so it probably sold out

And yet you post from an account less than a month old?

I think your maths is wrong. You're only counting the Primary Bid for retail share holders, the book build was targeting £6.3m at 6p, so 105,000,000 shares, discounted at -10.4% previous day's price (i.e. discounted by the level of dilution)

Clarity and decision making has been excellent so far, from a business strategy perspective. Buying the rig and keeping that quiet was outstanding, and taking a raise to guarantee a follow on drill provides optimal value for money for the company after mobilising the rig team for Tai. I agree it has a moderately negative impact for long term share holders but it's been extremely sound business judgement. No complaints at all on that front.

You'd expect the SP to hit 6p tomorrow and possibly dip slightly under at some point, but 10% isn't too bad a discount on a scale of AIM raises. The big buyers at the book price will also sell their profits when it does rise so that may keep a lid on it for a while going into the Tai drill too.

Depends whether the book is a done deal and fully subscribed at 6p, and how much interest that then generates in the wider market. But overall, it's a sound move for the company to avoid demobilising the rig and crew and going straight for a second prospect drill. Absolutely no doubt now that they are ready to drill anyway, which is good news.

"I repeat ALL TIME HIGH has been HIT"

Don't talk nonsense, SP was 0.31 on 23 February and 0.35 on 28 January.